New research shows that fertility rates have fallen by 50% in different countries, and this can have a catastrophic effect on human society.
The study, published in the Lancet, shows fertility trends from 1950 to 2017.
In 1950, women gave birth to an average of 4.7 children during their lifetime. This average fell to 2.4 by 2017. But it's worth remembering that this average hides tremendous variability across countries.
For example, the fertility rate in Niger, West Africa is 7.1, and in Cyprus, for example, women give birth to one child on average. In the UK and in Western Europe as a whole, the fertility rate is kept at around 1.7.
What should it be? Total fertility rate (or fertility rate) is the average number of live babies per woman during her reproductive period. It differs from the birth rate, which is calculated from the number of children per thousand people per year. As soon as the fertility rate drops below about 2.1, the population begins to decline. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that where the coefficient is higher, the level of infant mortality is often higher.
At the time of the start of the study, that is, in 1950, there were no countries on Earth where fertility was below 2.1.
To date, the highest fertility rates are found in countries such as Niger, Chad, Somalia, Mali, Afghanistan and South Sudan, the lowest - in Cyprus, Taiwan, South Korea, Andorra and Puerto Rico. And in general, the coefficient falls rather due to an increase in the standard of living, a decrease in child mortality, than due to physiological reasons. The question remains, what to do about it?
Dr. George Leeson, director of the Oxford Institute on Population Aging, says the process itself is not strictly negative, but society will have to adapt to massive demographic changes. Everything that the governments of various countries plan in one way or another is determined not only by the number of the population, but also by the age structure, and it is this structure that changes, which no one thinks about. Leeson believes that the very understanding of work will change, and the very idea of retirement at the age of 60-68 (in the UK now the maximum retirement age is 68) will become untenable.
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The study itself says that countries with low rates should consider the possibility of an influx of immigrants, which could create their own problems, or introduce policies that encourage childbearing, but such legislative initiatives usually do not succeed.
The main author of the study, Professor Christopher Murray, says that “with the current trend, there will soon be very few children and a large number of people over the age of 65, making it very difficult to maintain a global society. It is worth considering the profound social and economic consequences of a society where there are more grandparents than grandchildren. I think now Japan is already fully aware of this problem, as it is faced with the problem of a shrinking population, but I believe that it will not affect the countries in the West to the same extent, since here low fertility is compensated by migration. However, globally, migration is not a solution to this problem.”