All of humanity, all of our life with its aspirations and anxieties may turn out to be just a bustle of underdeveloped creatures, followed with interest by alien scientists and wildlife lovers.
Ever since Enrico Fermi at lunch with his colleagues in 1950 asked the question: "If aliens exist, then where are they?" - grateful humanity has found several possible solutions to this paradox. Some believe that life on our planet, if not unique, then really is a very rare case, and advanced civilizations have no chance to intersect with each other. Others suggest that the meeting has already taken place and some unusually intelligent creatures have been watching us for a long time, either studying or having fun. Condescendingly and condescendingly - as we are after our "little brothers" somewhere in a zoo or in a nature reserve on the outskirts of the Galaxy.
Long before Fermi, Konstantin Tsiolkovsky posed a similar paradox. Indeed, the Milky Way alone has about 100 billion stars. The number of galaxies in the observable universe, according to recent estimates by astronomers from the University of Nottingham, may exceed two trillion. The number of planets suitable for life in such a world turns out to be unimaginably large.
Drake's well-known formula proposes to estimate the number of extraterrestrial civilizations in the Galaxy, taking into account the probabilities of the birth of a suitable planet, the appearance of life on it, the evolution of intelligent beings, etc. According to the calculations made by Claudio Maccone in 2012, only in the Milky Way there can be more than 11 different-planetary civilizations 000. If they are more or less evenly distributed throughout the Galaxy, then only about 2600 light years can separate us from our nearest neighbors. But then…
Where are they all?
An article with this subtitle was published in 1973 by John Ball, a radio astronomer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “A civilization that has outstripped people in technical development by several epochs, from our point of view, will be practically omnipotent and omniscient,” the scientist wrote, comparing our capabilities with those of ants. According to him, we may not be aware of the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence, as ants in Manhattan may not be aware of the existence of our civilization: this awareness is simply beyond their intellectual capabilities.
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Such a supercivilization, Ball argued, must be "humane", otherwise, having the ability to destroy us as easily as we crush an ant on the asphalt, they would probably have done it already. Our very appearance, given the "all-knowing" abilities of aliens, hardly went unnoticed. We cannot prevent them in any way, because we still have not been able to even establish a colony even on Mars. For them, we are like other primates for us, and maybe even a simpler one. We can simply be ignored, or we can be protected and studied.
Intergalactic Agreement
The age of the Earth is about 4.5 billion years, the age of the Milky Way is about 13 billion. This gives more than enough time for intelligent beings to appear in the Galaxy - if life is indeed common on planets and even on large satellites. The development of civilization itself is full of risks, but it does not take a long time. “A hundred years ago, we could not send a signal to a nearby star, today we can,” adds Ball. "An alien civilization only a thousand years older than ours will be able to use interstellar communication technologies … which we humans do not yet possess." All they have to do is contact each other and come to an agreement on the protection of wild fauna like us. Something like the UN Environment Program - the Intergalactic Agreement, which they surely can do. Such calculations were carried out in 2016 by Duncan Forgan,astrophysicist from the British University of St Andrews, proposing a mathematical model of intragalactic communications. In order for the intercivilizational network to work, its participants must, first, exist longer than the signal at the speed of light travels to neighbors and back. Secondly, they must inhabit suitable regions of the Milky Way, at a safe distance from the active core of the Galaxy - somewhere from 6 to 10 kiloparsecs from the center (we are 8 kiloparsecs). Within this region, civilizations in the Forgan model arise evenly, near random stars, and die after some time. If a civilization reaches contact with a more developed one, it becomes a part of its "global world". In order for the intercivilizational network to work, its participants must, first, exist longer than the signal at the speed of light travels to neighbors and back. Secondly, they must inhabit suitable regions of the Milky Way, at a safe distance from the active core of the Galaxy - somewhere from 6 to 10 kiloparsecs from the center (we are 8 kiloparsecs). Within this region, civilizations in the Forgan model arise evenly, near random stars, and die after some time. If a civilization reaches contact with a more developed one, it becomes a part of its "global world". In order for the intercivilizational network to work, its participants must, first, exist longer than the signal at the speed of light travels to neighbors and back. Secondly, they must inhabit suitable regions of the Milky Way, at a safe distance from the active core of the Galaxy - somewhere from 6 to 10 kiloparsecs from the center (we are 8 kiloparsecs). Within this region, civilizations in the Forgan model arise evenly, near random stars, and die after some time. If a civilization reaches contact with a more developed one, it becomes a part of its "global world".at a safe distance from the active nucleus of the Galaxy - somewhere from 6 to 10 kiloparsecs from the center (we are 8 kiloparsecs). Within this region, civilizations in the Forgan model arise evenly, near random stars, and die after some time. If a civilization reaches contact with a more developed one, it becomes a part of its "global world".at a safe distance from the active nucleus of the Galaxy - somewhere from 6 to 10 kiloparsecs from the center (we are 8 kiloparsecs). Within this region, civilizations in the Forgan model arise evenly, near random stars, and die after some time. If a civilization reaches contact with a more developed one, it becomes a part of its "global world".
Calculations have shown that at first such connections appear rather slowly, but over time the probability of contact increases rapidly. If there are at least half a thousand planets in the Galaxy inhabited by highly developed intelligent beings, then soon enough they form several separate groups, while incapable of communicating with each other. Only if their average lifespan is many millions of years does a single community emerge, such as the United Galactic Republic. Forgan does not really believe in the Galactic Empire: “If civilizational groups come into contact, most likely, each of them will have their own worldview, their own excellent views of the Universe, - the scientist believes, - their views on the rights and duties of intelligent beings and their institutions . Hopefullythat “our masters” value the lives and rights of their younger brothers at least as much as we try to do.
We make a lot of efforts to preserve endangered species, but we keep the situation under control and do not release wild animals outside their designated areas. Despite all the "rights", they are too unpredictable and dangerous to live side by side with us. Perhaps, someone keeps us in the zoo "Earth" by force, at least until we become truly rational. The influence of an overdeveloped civilization could remain completely invisible, manifesting itself either by an accidental explosion of a rocket or by a sudden inability of politicians to come to an agreement. Otherwise, why can't we still establish a colony on Mars at least?
Boris Stern, Leading Researcher at the Institute for Nuclear Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Astro Space Center of the Lebedev Physical Institute:
“By and large, estimates of the number of civilizations according to Drake's formula are nothing more than fortune telling on coffee grounds. According to the Kepler telescope, the number of Earth-like planets located in the habitable zone of sun-like stars is indeed on the order of a billion. But what to do next with this billion? Where can the figures for the probabilities of the birth of life, intelligent forms, and the emergence of civilizations come from? I think nowhere."
Author: Roman Fishman
