Scientists from Harvard are going to conduct the first experiment in the field of solar geoengineering in 2019.
Let me tell you right away: it's not about climate weapons, some secret projects and secret tests. It's about science. The prestigious Harvard University. And his research program in solar geoengineering. However, it is very ambiguous.
TWO DEGREES. MAYBE FIVE
You are aware of global warming. How to deal with it? Since greenhouse gases are to blame, it means that we need to make sure that there are fewer of them. Do not smoke or smoke: switch to solar, wind and hydropower, biofuels, electric vehicles, and so on. And also do not eat meat (cows are a source of methane, one of the greenhouse gases) and travel less (airplanes are one of the main air pollutants, carbon dioxide).
The goal of the Paris Climate Agreement is to limit the rise in average temperature on Earth to two degrees by the end of the 21st century. According to pessimistic scenarios, it will rise by 3, 4 or even 5 degrees.
But! Many scientists admit that it will not work to stop global warming, no matter how hard we try. The process has already started. And it will continue even if all factories and cars suddenly stop on Earth in an instant. You can soften and slow down. Stop - no.
Geoengineering or climatic engineering (the so-called technology of artificial impact on the environment) will allow you to go from the other side. Take and cool the planet yourself by a couple of degrees! So what? We were able to heat it, which means we can cool it.
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VOLCANIC WINTER WITH YOUR OWN HANDS
The method in question (and in general there are many of them, see "Projects"), the adepts of solar geoengineering have spied the method from nature itself. More precisely, near volcanoes. It is a known fact: after powerful eruptions, the Earth becomes cooler. Volcanic ash acts as a barrier to sunlight, which is reflected and does not penetrate the atmosphere. The closest example in time is the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991. The fire-breathing mountain released 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide, which circulated in the stratosphere for several months. The average temperature on Earth has dropped by 0.5 degrees - in fact, the planet has returned to the days when global warming was not heard. The effect lasted for a year and a half.
The essence of the idea is to do the same, only without the volcano: to spray an aerosol of sulfur dioxide or another substance in the stratosphere. The method has been discussed since the 1970s, and was first proposed by the Soviet climatologist Mikhail Budyko. Academician Yuri Izrael, director of the Institute of Global Climate and Ecology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, was an active supporter of this method of combating global warming. Serious projects were developed in the USA and Great Britain.
But they all remained projects. For different reasons. And scientific (how the climate works is not completely clear. And interventions of this scale are unpredictable), ethical, financial, and political (the decision must be made by the leaders of all countries, and they already have enough disagreements).
100 GRAMS TO START …
Participants in the Solar Geoengineering Research Program at Harvard University are planning to take the first practical step. And already in 2019. The budget of the first stage of the experiment, which is devoted to the article in the journal Nature, is $ 3 million.
A controlled stratospheric balloon will be launched over the southwest of the United States. At an altitude of about 20 km, it will spray tiny particles of calcium carbonate - essentially chalk. The substance, according to scientists, is more environmentally friendly and safer than sulfur dioxide, primarily for the ozone layer (see “Dangers”).
A little - several servings of 100 grams each, for a total of less than a kilogram. Particle size 0.0005 mm.
- We do not know how calcium carbonate will behave in reality - after all, it does not exist in nature in the stratosphere, - admits Frank Koitsch, an expert in atmospheric chemistry (he is one of the leaders of the research program, together with colleague chemist James Anderson and physicist David Keith, who has been engaged in climate engineering for 25 years and received funding for his work from Bill Gates).
Further, the aircraft will rotate and observe what happens to the aerosol, ozone and air, tracing the plume of microparticles using a laser. And he will return to earth along with the air samples. On the technical side, the United States National Atmosphere and Oceans Organization (NOAA) is involved.
There will definitely not be any harm from this amount of chalk. Climate benefits, of course, too. Experiment. It is important that until now there have not been any like that, everyone was limited to computer modeling. And it will help answer many questions related to the very idea of geoengineering.
It seems to be harmless. But conservationists are against it: the trouble is the beginning, start with 100 grams, and then try to stop it. The Manifesto Against Geoengineering was signed in the fall of 2018 by hundreds of public organizations from all over the world: scientists, writers, ecologists. They demand to ban any experiments, including the Harvard one.
… AND A BILLION PER YEAR
"Moderate" solar geoengineering is also mentioned in a recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But - as an additional measure to combat global warming. That is, we are reducing emissions, greening the energy sector, and preparing for a rise in the level of the World Ocean. But if it completely squeezes, then it may be necessary to launch stratospheric balloons with sulfur dioxide, despite all the possible negative consequences.
There is even an approximate budget: $ 1-10 billion per year. This money is enough to cover the entire planet with an aerosol veil. And add from time to time - microparticles "live" in the atmosphere for an average of two years.
But if humanity has to think about such extreme measures, it will be in 2030–2050. Not earlier. However, it will not be long before 2030.
DANGERS
- most importantly: intervention in the climate can provoke unexpected and unpredictable consequences;
- there is a risk that the circulation of the atmosphere and the precipitation regime in different regions of the globe will change;
- sulfur dioxide will damage the ozone layer that protects the Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation;
- crops can suffer from lack of sunlight. A recent study in this regard: after the very eruption in the Philippines and the "volcanic" winter in many countries fell harvests of wheat, rice and corn. But the forests began to grow.
- due to aerosols in the stratosphere, the color of the sky will change. It is not known exactly what it will be, but it will never be bright blue again. And the sunsets will be completely different.
PROJECTS
The idea of imitating a volcanic winter, although the most popular, is not the only one. Here's what else the supporters of artificial influence on the climate have proposed at different times:
- Injecting seawater into clouds to increase their reflectivity and prevent the sun's rays from entering the atmosphere - a high-profile project by British scientists from the universities of Manchester and Edinburgh.
- Create genetically modified plants, again with great reflectivity.
- to launch giant mirrors into orbit, with the same purpose - to reflect part of the sunlight from the Earth.
YULIA SMIRNOVA