Friday 13 April 2029 This day threatened to be fatal for the entire planet Earth. At 4:36 GMT, the asteroid Apophis 99942 weighing 50 million tons and a diameter of 320 m will cross the Moon's orbit and rush to Earth at a speed of 45,000 km / h. A huge boulder dug with pockmarks will harbor the energy of 65,000 Hiroshima bombs - more than enough to wipe out a small country from the face of the Earth or swing a tsunami a couple of hundred meters high.
The name of this asteroid speaks for itself - that was the name of the ancient Egyptian god of darkness and destruction, but there is still a chance that he will not be able to fulfill his fateful destiny. Scientists are 99.7% sure that the boulder will fly past the Earth at a distance of 30-33 thousand kilometers. Astronomically, it’s like a flea leap, no more than a flight from New York to Melbourne and back, and much smaller than the orbital diameters of many geostationary communications satellites. After dusk, the population of Europe, Africa and Western Asia will be able to observe for a couple of hours a celestial object, similar to a medium-sized star, crossing the sky region where the constellation of Cancer is located. Apophis will be the first asteroid in human history that we will be able to clearly see with the naked eye. And then it will disappear - it will simply melt into the black space.
Maybe it will. But scientists have calculated: if Apophis is exactly at a distance of 30 404.5 km from our planet, it should get to …
… A gravitational "keyhole". A strip of space about 1 km wide, a hole comparable in size with the diameter of the asteroid itself, is a trap where the Earth's gravity is able to turn Apophis' flight in a dangerous direction, so that our planet will literally be in the crosshair at the time of the next visit of this asteroid. which will take place exactly 7 years later - on April 13, 2036.
The results of radar and optical tracking of Apophis, when it once again flew past our planet, made it possible to calculate the probability of its hitting the “keyhole”. In numerical terms, this chance is 1: 45,000! “The challenge is to actually assess a hazard with a very low probability of an event,” said Michael de Kay of the Carnegie Mellon University Clearinghouse and Hazard Assessment Center. "Some believe that since the danger is unlikely, then it is not worth thinking about it, while others, bearing in mind the severity of a possible catastrophe, believe that even the smallest probability of such an event is unacceptable."
Former astronaut Rusty Schweikart has a lot to talk about about objects flying in outer space - once, having got out of his ship on the Apollo 9 flight in 1969, he was such an object himself. In 2001, Schweickart became one of the co-founders of the B612 fund and is now using it to put pressure on NASA, demanding at least some action from the agency regarding Apophis, and as soon as possible. "If we miss our chance," he says, "it would be criminal negligence."
Let's say that in 2029 the situation will not be the best. Then, if we do not want the asteroid to crash into the Earth in 2036, we must deal with it on the approach and try to move it to the side by ten thousand kilometers. Forget about the great technological advances that we see in Hollywood films - in fact, this task far exceeds the current capabilities of humanity. Take, for example, the ingenious method proposed in the famous "Armageddon", released in 1998, - to drill a hole in an asteroid a quarter of a kilometer deep and detonate a nuclear charge right inside. So - technically, this is no easier to implement than time travel. In a real situation, when April 13, 2029 comes up, we will only have to calculate the place of the meteorite fall and begin the evacuation of the population from the doomed land.
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According to preliminary estimates, the site of the fall of Apophis falls on a strip 50 km wide, running through Russia, the Pacific Ocean, Central America and goes further into the Atlantic. The cities of Managua (Nicaragua), San Jose (Costa Rica) and Caracas (Venezuela) are located exactly in this strip, so that they face a direct hit and complete destruction. However, the most likely place of the fall is a point in the ocean several thousand kilometers from the west coast of America. If Apophis falls into the ocean, a crater 2.7 km deep and about 8 km in diameter will form in this place, from which tsunami waves will run in all directions. As a result, say, the coast of Florida will be hit by 20-meter waves, which will bombard the mainland for an hour.
However, it is too early to think about evacuation. After 2029, we will no longer be able to avoid a collision, but long before the fatal moment, we can slightly knock Apophis off course - just enough so that he does not fall into the "keyhole". According to the calculations carried out by NASA, a simple "blank" weighing one ton, the so-called kinetic striker, which should hit the asteroid at a speed of 8000 km / h, will do for this. A similar mission has already been performed by NASA's Deep Impact space probe (by the way, its name is associated with another Hollywood blockbuster of 1998). In 2005, at the behest of its creators, this apparatus crashed into the nucleus of comet Tempel 1, and thus information about the structure of the surface of this cosmic body was obtained. Another solution is possible, when a spacecraft with an ion propulsion system, playing the role of a "gravitational tractor",hover over Apophis, and its - albeit insignificant - force of gravity will slightly move the asteroid off its fateful course.
In 2005, Schweickart urged NASA officials to plan a rescue mission to install a radio transmitter on Apophis. The data regularly received from this device would make it possible to confirm the predictions of the development of the situation. With a favorable forecast (if an asteroid flies past the "keyhole" in 2029), the inhabitants of the earth could breathe a sigh of relief. In the event of a disappointing forecast, we would have had enough time to prepare and send into space an expedition capable of removing the danger threatening it from the Earth. To complete such a project, according to Schweikart's estimates, it could take about 12 years, but it is desirable to complete all rescue work by 2026 - only then can one hopethat the remaining three years will be enough for the manifestation of positive results from the impact of our rescue ship, which is barely noticeable on a cosmic scale.
In 1998, the US Congress instructed NASA to search, record and track in near-Earth space all asteroids with a diameter of at least 1 km. The resulting Space Safety Report contains descriptions of 75% of the 1,100 suspected objects. (In the course of these searches, Apophis, which did not reach the required size of 750 m, caught the eye of the researchers simply by a fluke.) None of the giants included in the "report", fortunately, poses a threat to the Earth. “But in the remaining couple of hundred that we have not yet been able to find, anyone could be on the way to our planet,” says former astronaut Tom Jones, NASA's asteroid search consultant. In light of the current situation, the aerospace agency expects to expand the search criteria to a diameter of 140 m,that is, to capture in their network and celestial bodies half the size of Apophis, which can nevertheless cause significant damage to our planet. More than 4,000 such asteroids have already been identified, and according to preliminary estimates by NASA, there should be at least 100,000.
As the procedure for calculating the 323-day orbit of Apophis has shown, predicting the paths along which asteroids move is troublesome. Our asteroid was discovered in June 2004 by astronomers of the Kitt Peak National Observatory of Arizona. A lot of useful information was obtained by amateur astronomers, and after six months, repeated professional observations and more accurate sighting of the object led to such results that JPL sounded the alarm. The holy of holies of JPL, the Sentry asteroid tracking system (a super-powerful computer that calculates the orbits of near-Earth asteroids based on astronomical observations) made predictions that looked more ominous day after day. As early as December 27, 2004, the estimated chances of an expected collision in 2029 reached level 2,7% - such numbers have caused a stir in the narrow world of asteroid hunters. Apophis has taken an unprecedented 4th step on the "Turin Scale".
However, the panic quickly subsided. The results of those observations that had previously escaped the attention of researchers were entered into the computer, and the system read out a reassuring message: in 2029, Apophis will fly past the Earth, but will miss only a little. Everything would be fine, but one unpleasant little thing remained - the same "keyhole". The tiny size of this gravitational "trap" (only 600 m in diameter) is both a plus and a minus. On the one hand, it will not be so difficult to push Apophis away from such an insignificant goal. If you believe the calculations, then, by changing the asteroid's speed by only 16 cm per hour, that is, by 3.8 m per day, in three years we will displace its orbit by several kilometers. It seems to be nonsense, but quite enough to get around the "keyhole". Such influences are quite capable of the already described "gravitational tractor" or "kinetic blank". On the other hand, when we are dealing with such a tiny target, it is impossible to predict exactly which way Apophis will deviate from the "keyhole." Today, forecasts of what the orbit will be by 2029 have a scale of accuracy (in space ballistics it is called the "error ellipse") of about 3000 km. As new data accumulates, this ellipse should gradually decrease. In order to say with any certainty that Apophis is flying by, it is necessary to reduce the "ellipse" to about 1 km. Lacking the necessary information, the rescue expedition can lead the asteroid aside, or it can inadvertently drive it into the very well.in which direction Apophis will deviate from the "keyhole". Today, forecasts of what the orbit will be by 2029 have a scale of accuracy (in space ballistics it is called the "error ellipse") of about 3000 km. As new data accumulates, this ellipse should gradually decrease. In order to say with any certainty that Apophis is flying by, it is necessary to reduce the "ellipse" to a size of about 1 km. Lacking the necessary information, the rescue expedition can lead the asteroid aside, or it can inadvertently drive it into the very well.in which direction Apophis will deviate from the "keyhole". Today, forecasts of what the orbit will be by 2029 have a scale of accuracy (in space ballistics it is called the "error ellipse") of about 3000 km. As new data accumulates, this ellipse should gradually decrease. In order to say with any certainty that Apophis is flying by, it is necessary to reduce the "ellipse" to about 1 km. Lacking the necessary information, a rescue expedition can lead the asteroid aside, or it can inadvertently drive it into the very well. In order to say with any certainty that Apophis is flying by, it is necessary to reduce the "ellipse" to a size of about 1 km. Lacking the necessary information, the rescue expedition can lead the asteroid aside, or it can inadvertently drive it into the very well. In order to say with any certainty that Apophis is flying by, it is necessary to reduce the "ellipse" to a size of about 1 km. Lacking the necessary information, a rescue expedition can lead the asteroid aside, or it can inadvertently drive it into the very well.
But is it realistic to achieve the required forecasting accuracy? This task involves not only the installation of a transceiver on the asteroid, but also a mathematical model that is incomparably more complex than the one used now. The new algorithm for calculating the orbit should also include such seemingly insignificant factors as solar radiation, terms added to account for relativistic effects, and gravitational effects from other nearby asteroids. In the current model, all these amendments have not yet been taken into account.
And finally, when calculating this orbit, another surprise awaits us - the Yarkovsky effect. This is an additional small, but steadily acting force - its manifestation is observed in those cases when the asteroid radiates more heat from one side than from the other. As the asteroid turns away from the Sun, it begins to radiate heat accumulated in the surface layers into the surrounding space. A weak, but still noticeable reactive force appears, acting in the direction opposite to the heat flow. For example, a twice as large asteroid called 6489 Golevka, under the influence of this force, has moved 16 km from the calculated orbit over the past 15 years. No one knows how this effect will affect Apophis's trajectory over the next 23 years. At the moment, we have no idea about the speed of its rotation, or about the direction of the axis,around which he could revolve. We do not even know its outline - and this information is absolutely necessary in order to calculate the Yarkovsky effect.
However, already in 2013 NASA reported that the huge asteroid Apophis threatening the Earth could collide with our planet in 2068. A scientific article has been published, which was prepared by a group of researchers of space phenomena, led by David Farnocchi. Scientists carry out their work in the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, with the support of the University of Hawaii and the University of Pisa. In the process of scientific development, more than 20 so-called "keyholes" have been identified, the influence of which on the asteroid Apophis can lead to a catastrophe, which scientists have postponed more than once.
Among these cosmic phenomena, it turned out that during the passage of which Apophis will not be repelled, but, on the contrary, will be attracted to the Earth, and when it appears on April 12, 2068, it may no longer miss it. Although the risk of collision is not great, its probability is slightly higher than one in a million, scientists, nevertheless, did not rule out such a possibility.
Initial calculations showed that Apophis could collapse to Earth in 2029 or 2036, but later they were not confirmed. However, passing by our planet, the space monster will change its orbit and return to it more than once.
Russian scientists have already managed to take the first steps towards saving the Earth. They proposed a new way to protect the planet from asteroids - to knock them off their trajectory with the help of blows from other astroids. To translate this idea into reality, a special laboratory for mathematical modeling of methods and methods of protection from asteroid and cometary hazards was created in Russia. Russian and foreign scientists take part in the laboratory. The project is financed from the won grant, which amounts to 150 million rubles.
Project leader David Eismont suggested that it is necessary to disperse a small asteroid with the help of a gravitational maneuver and bring down Apophis with it, changing its trajectory. With the help of the gravitational maneuver and the gravity of the planet, you can significantly increase the speed of the space body. By the way, this method is used to send spacecraft to the most distant distances in the solar system without large expenditures of fuel.
Thus, certain calculations were made, according to which, in order to provide the Earth with a gravitational maneuver of an asteroid-projectile with a mass of 1.4 thousand tons and a diameter of 15 meters, a small engine and about 1.2 tons of fuel are needed.
Scientists intend to launch a beacon apparatus on the Soyuz rocket and land it on a dangerous asteroid. The project of this lighthouse is currently under development. We are talking about two spacecraft - "Kaissa" and "Kapkan" (the first - for reconnaissance, the second - strike, with nuclear warheads). Scientists have identified asteroid 2011 UK10 for the role of the projectile.
Large-scale developments in this industry are also underway in the United States. The American HAIV program deserves attention, the essence of which is the creation of nuclear asteroid interceptors. This program is aimed at creating protective technologies to ensure the safety of the planet from the consequences of an asteroid collision. The HAIV itself is a spacecraft designed to penetrate the interior of the asteroid and explode there. That is, either the complete destruction of the object will occur, or it will be possible to move it off the trajectory.
Another very interesting project was developed by the American company SEI. The essence of the project is to send small robots to the asteroid. By burrowing into the surface of an asteroid and ejecting rock into space, these robots must change its trajectory.
Another American company has put forward a proposal to launch an infrared telescope into space to find and track potentially dangerous asteroids.
Among international developments, it is necessary to note the technology for painting celestial bodies, designed to protect the Earth from potential threats. The essence of the technology is to reduce the reflectivity of asteroids. In order to influence the movement of a space object, a special paint must be applied to its surface using a special space drone.
In addition, there are currently about 40 different ways to deal with potentially dangerous celestial objects. In particular, one can name a high-power frontal impact, detonation of a nuclear charge.
Some projects that are in development also deserve attention. So, for example, the European Union expects to allocate about four million euros for the implementation of the NEO-Shield project, which involves the construction of a shield against asteroids. However, such a construction will be very expensive - its cost is estimated at about 300 million euros. By the way, due to the lack of funds, another project was frozen - Don Quixote (its purpose was to send to the asteroid Hidalgo - satellite-container