On September 7, scientists told how the most powerful solar flare will turn out for the inhabitants of the Earth. After all, the most powerful solar flare in the past 12 years took place, which, among other things, also occurred from the side of the Earth, poses security threats to the population of the "green" planet. According to experts, strong magnetic storms may begin in the near future, which will affect the health and well-being of the inhabitants of the third planet.
Most of humanity can have sleep disturbances, people prone to react to weather changes will become victims of the solar attack in the first place. Experts also note that many will experience frequent headaches, dizziness, and decreased activity.
Scientists and space scientists are now closely watching for possible re-waves on the sun's surface. They also talk about the intentions of the Ministry of Emergency Situations to send a special satellite into space, serving possible anomalous phenomena.
The question is not as "medical" as it might seem at first glance. The teaching of the Russian scientist Alexander Leonidovich Chizhevsky will help us to understand what is social and political in it.
Alexander Chizhevsky was born in 1897 in the family of an artillery general. All his scientific activities were associated with what was then called "biological physics and space biology." Today the name of Chizhevsky is familiar to many thanks to a household air ionizer - a "chandelier" named in his honor. Unfortunately, his doctrine of the relationship between the cycles of solar activity and the socio-political activity of mankind, which he outlined in his work "Physical factors of the historical process", written in Kaluga in 1924, is much less famous.
In this book, Chizhevsky wrote: “There is some extraterrestrial force influencing the development of events in human communities from the outside. The simultaneous fluctuations of solar and human activity are the best indication of this force."
An immediate impetus to Chizhevsky's reflections was the observation of the appearance of large sunspots on the Sun, made in 1915. The scientist drew attention to a strange coincidence between the appearance of these spots on the sun and the immediate intensification of hostilities on many fronts. A little later, already in 1917-18, Chizhevsky discovered that the February and October coups in Russia, as well as the revolutions in Germany and Austria, were preceded by unusually powerful rises in the sunspot process on the Sun.
As you know, the so-called. sunspots observed on the surface of the star are zones with relatively low temperatures. These spots are the exit points of strong magnetic fields. The number of such spots is one of the main factors characterizing solar activity. The activity of the Sun undergoes four stages: 1) a period of minimum, 2) a period of increased activity, 3) a period of maximum, and 4) a period of degradation (decline).
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A full cycle, which includes one maximum, one minimum and transitional stages, takes a period of time from 7 to 16 years. Typically, however, an arithmetic mean of about 11 years is used. The question of the cause of the appearance of spots on the Sun and such a phenomenon as the solar wind - the release of matter from the surface of the sun into space - is interesting in itself, but its detailing will lead us away from considering the ideas of Chizhevsky. Let's just accept as a fact that a change in the magnetic activity of the Sun affects all the planets of the solar system, including the Earth, causing, for example, such phenomena as magnetic storms, auroras, cirrus clouds, optical effects in the atmosphere, fluctuations in atmospheric electricity, thunderstorms, etc.
However, the influence of the Sun is not limited to these phenomena. As Chizhevsky wrote: "rapid episodic increases in the activity of the Sun can cause dramatic changes in the state of the human psyche and dramatically change its behavior … There is full reason to recognize that there is a direct correlation between the periodic activity of the Sun and the social activity of mankind."
Alexander Leonidovich Chizhevsky made his conclusions on the basis of the data provided to him by the Mount Willson Solar Observatory, Eidgenossische Sternwarte in Zurich, Royal Observatory in Greenwich; Steward Observatory in Arizona and several others. Observations of the Sun have been conducted since 1610, since the discovery of sunspots by Galileo, which gave the Russian scientist accurate data on solar activity for four centuries. Based on these data, Chizhevsky, with an acceptable error, built a table of solar activity for the entire period of human history. On this table, he superimposed the most important events in human history in all regions of the world. As a result, he revealed the regularity of the distribution of historical events within the 11-year cycle of solar activity.
Chizhevsky called his theory of periodic changes in the behavior of organized masses, simultaneous with periodic changes in the activity of the Sun - historiometry (measurement of historical time by means of physical units). For the first and main measuring unit of historical time, Chizhevsky took one solar activity cycle, equal to an average of 11 years. He called this unit of historical time reference the historiometric cycle.
Further, each historical cycle, synchronous with the solar cycle, Chizhevsky divided into four periods. His statistical calculations showed that the first period - the period of minimal excitability, lasts 3 years; second period - build-up, 2 years; the third - maximum excitability - 3 years, and the last (decay period) equals 3 years. The density of events in periods, according to Chizhevsky, is distributed as follows:
in the 1st period of the cycle (3 years), 5% of all historical events begin;
in the 2nd (2 years) - 20%;
in the 3rd (3 years) - 60%;
in the 4th (3 years) - 15%.
Chizhevsky also did not pass by the questions related to the fact that different parts of the earth's surface do not receive solar energy in equal proportions. In particular, they wrote: “The lowest uncivilized tribes still live either in equatorial or polar countries. Indeed, the influence of geographical latitude in history is noticeable. For example, civilized and populous cities lie between the two extreme isothermal lines at +16 and +4. On the main axis of the climatic and civilized belt with an isotherm of +10 lie Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, London, Vienna, Odessa, Beijing … Thus, the higher race and higher culture correspond to the average amount of the sun's radiant energy; the minimum and the maximum are accompanied by a lower race and a lower culture."
That is, from the point of view of Chizhevsky, the development of civilization is equally detrimental to both the excessive and the reduced amount of solar energy. At the present time, these ideas in a tolerant world would be branded as reactionary, since Chizhevsky not only postulates the existence of higher and lower races and cultures, but also gives this scientific justification. However, Chizhevsky relies, among other things, on the point of view of such scientists as Lombroso, the Frenchman Moret and others. For example, the English economist Jevons (WS Jevons, 1835-1882), to whom Chizhevsky refers, in his work "Commercial Crises and Sunspots" set forth his own theory of the relationship between industrial crises and the periodic course of solar activity.
Chizhevsky gave a description of four periods of the universal cycles of historical events that he discovered, which repeat exactly 9 times in each century.
Chizhevsky believed that the first period of the 11-year cycle (minimal excitability) is characterized by the fragmentation and indifference of the masses to political and military issues, the peaceful mood of the masses, compliance, tolerance, etc. Studying historical events, Chizhevsky established that in the first period most often peace treaties are concluded; capitulation shares are signed; peoples are under occupation; parliamentarism is reduced to the maximum and autocracy or rule of the few is strengthened.
The beginning of the second period of the historiometric cycle (the period of increasing excitability) is characterized by a significantly greater rise in the excitement of the masses. There is still no unity of the masses; only little by little the parties and groups that had disintegrated by the period of minimal excitability begin to reorganize, leaders are outlined, programs are determined. The power of suggestion is again manifesting itself on the masses: statesmen, military leaders, orators, the press are regaining their importance. Questions - political and military - are beginning to prevail in public life and are gradually becoming more acute.
Soon, after a year or two, and sometimes less, the unanimous demand of the masses, aimed at solving certain issues, takes up. During the second period, three main phases should be distinguished in the order of their gradual development: 1) the emergence of ideas among the masses; 2) grouping ideas; and 3) identifying one main idea (absorbing many group ideas).
The third period of the historiometric cycle (the period of maximum excitability) is the main stage in the development of each cycle, which resolves the world-historical problems of mankind and fundamental new historical epochs. As Chizhevsky writes, this period "encourages humanity to the greatest follies and the greatest benefits: it brings ideas to life by shedding blood and clanging iron."
In the third period, the following factors are clearly distinguished:
stimulating effect on the masses of the people's leaders, generals, etc.;
the stimulating effect of moods and ideas circulating among the masses;
the speed of excitability from the unity of the mental center;
the size of the territorial coverage of the mass movement.
Let us give the floor to Chizhevsky again: “The influence of leaders and generals never reaches such a tremendous force as during the period of maximum tension of the sunspot-forming activity. During this period, sometimes just one word spoken at the time or one gesture is enough to move entire armies and the masses. Ideas that appeal to the masses in the period of maximum excitability are no less important. In this case, the influence of oral agitation, as well as the press, can acquire a decisive importance on the outcome of a particular political or military movement. In a period of maximum excitability, sometimes the slightest excuse is enough for the masses to ignite, revolt, or move to war. Even one rumor, put into circulation to the masses, can lead to general unrest and rebellion."
The period of maximum excitability contributes to:
uniting the masses;
the promotion of leaders, generals, statesmen;
the triumph of ideas supported by the masses;
maximum development of parliamentarism;
democratic and social reforms;
democracy and restriction of autocracy;
uprisings and troubles, riots, riots, revolutions;
wars, campaigns, expeditions;
emigration, resettlement, persecution and other outbreaks of mass human activity.
Finally, the fourth period of the historiometric cycle (the period of the fall in excitability), in the historical and psychological sense, cannot abound with major events, but, usually, in this period those of them that have arisen earlier come to an end. In general, this is a period of general voltage recession.
These are, in short, the views of Alexander Leonidovich Chizhevsky on the role of the Sun in the events of human history. Of course, it would be a significant simplification to say that everything in human life obeys these 11-year cycles and can be reduced to elementary algebraic formulas.
Chizhevsky himself wrote about this: “The theory of the physical foundations of the historical process allows us to state the fact of the presence of a certain kind of rhythm in the mental activity of all mankind and periodic fluctuations in the course of the world-historical process, as an expression of this rhythm,” but “it would be completely wrong to assume that the periodic activity of the Sun is the main cause of certain historical events. Any such event is a dynamic reaction of the human masses from all political and economic stimuli acting on them, as well as natural stimuli that change their behavior and determine the intellectual and social development of mankind."
Simplifying Chizhevsky's thought, we can say that the activity of the Sun cannot provoke certain social processes from scratch. However, if there are prerequisites for social discontent in a given region, then most likely in the third phase of the cycle, massive social movements will begin, the rage of which will reach its apogee at the peak of solar activity. In this regard, it is interesting to see in what phase of the "Chizhevsky cycles" the events of December 2010 occurred.
In his work, Chizhevsky gave graphs of the activity of the Sun and the social activity of mankind. From these graphs, in particular, there was a noticeable coincidence of ups in staining and outbreaks of revolutionary activity of the popular masses of Russia for the period from October 1, 1905 to April 1, 1906 (meetings and strikes; bombs and assassination attempts; immediate repressions). Let's take this date as the starting point for our simplified calculations. Let us keep in mind that, in accordance with Chizhevsky's logic, this is the third period of the historiometric cycle (the greatest excitability).
11 years later, as we know, the October Revolution took place and the Civil War began. Omitting consideration of all points every 11 years, we briefly mention that these 11-year intervals (if we count from the period 1905-1906) account for the beginning of World War II (1939), as well as dramatic events in Moscow 1993 year. The last such point was 2005.
Well, what does observation of the sun tell us?
In 2009, scientists noted the almost complete disappearance of spots on the sun's surface. Sergei Yazev, a senior researcher at the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the SB RAS, reported that "There have been no spots on the Sun for almost two months (this is the first time that scientists have recorded this since 1913!), Except for the short-term appearance of tiny spots on July 23 and September 4" … True, on June 14 and July 5, powerful flares were recorded on the Sun, but then the luminary "fell asleep" again.
By the end of September 2009, the situation on the Sun had changed. Despite the lull, the strength of the solar wind has inexplicably tripled. The sun suddenly showed signs of solar activity, and, starting on September 24, the Sun seemed to go on an assault, trying to break out of the apathy of the decline in activity. The Sun suddenly showed signs of increased activity. The GOES satellites have recorded an X-ray flux from the Sun that has been increasing.
Further, our daylight began to "gain momentum" and went into acceleration. On February 9, 2010, 22 large flares occurred on the Sun per day. The star hasn't flashed so often since January 2005. In total, from 5 to 16 February, more than fifty flares occurred on the Sun.
The beginning of the grandiose eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland was associated by analysts with anything, but not with an unexpected sharp surge in solar activity. Of course, there is no evidence that these two events are related, but the fact is that seismic activity in the Eyjafjallajökull volcano area began at the end of 2009, that is, when the Sun “woke up”. In February - that is, after the "machine-gun burst" of flares on the Sun, scientists recorded a movement of the earth's crust by 3 cm in the area of a glacier on a volcano, after which seismic activity continued to increase and reached a maximum on March 3-5. Is it a coincidence?
Further events developed in the same vein: despite the fact that obvious weather anomalies were happening on Earth, for some reason no one wanted to associate them with the fact that the Sun "woke up", and very abruptly …
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You can, of course, dismiss Chizhevsky's theory as a historical curiosity. In general, people tend to look for answers to various questions anywhere, just not where these answers are. We do not insist on anything. We just wanted to remind once again about the theory that appeared at the beginning of the 20th century, which perfectly explains the events that are a century away from the time of the theory's birth.
In his book, Chizhevsky wrote: “The state authorities should know about the state of the Sun at any given moment. Before making this or that decision, the government needs to inquire about the state of the luminary: is it bright, is its face clean or darkened by spots? The sun is a great military-political indicator: its readings are unmistakable and universal. Therefore, the state power should be equal to his arrows."
Will the government listen to the words of this person?
As Chizhevsky said, the peaks of solar activity do not threaten those states in which there are no social contradictions or, in any case, they are not high enough. But woe to those societies in which social discontent exceeds a certain threshold at the time of peak solar activity or the period that Chizhevsky called the period of maximum excitability.
I would like to end with the words of Alexander Leonidovich Chizhevsky, which do not inspire too much optimism: “The sun does not force us to do this and that, but it forces us to do something. But humanity follows the line of least resistance and plunges itself into oceans of its own blood."
Dmitry NIKOLAEV, columnist for "EiM"