Scientists, technologists, engineers and visionaries are creating the future. Amazing things are being developed. But all this is already known, it is so everywhere. But you know what they usually pay little attention to? Scale.
How big is big?
“Silicon Valley, silicon raspberries, all these silicon around the world are dreaming dreams. They create innovation,”says Catherine Wood of Singularity University in New York. “We are evaluating opportunities. This is what we do."
Wood is the founder and CEO of ARK Investment Management, a research and investment firm focused on the growth potential of today's explosive technologies. Prior to ARK, she served as CIO of Global Thematic Strategies at AllianceBernstein for 12 years.
“We believe innovation is the key to growth,” says Wood. “We are not looking into the past. We look to the future. We believe there are tremendous opportunities in the public market because the shift to passive investing has generated risk aversion and colossal inefficiency.”
In a new study released this week, ARK examined seven explosive technologies and estimated their scale. Here they are.
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Deep learning will cost 35 "Amazons"
Deep learning is a subcategory of machine learning, which is itself a subcategory of artificial intelligence. Deep Learning is the source of all the hype surrounding AI today. But behind the hype are big companies trying to get deep learning to do some pretty practical things. And if the Internet, which has generated trillions of market value, has transformed several industries - news, entertainment, advertising, and more - deep learning could get even bigger, Wood says.
As deep learning improves, it will automate and improve technology, transportation, manufacturing, healthcare, finance, and more. And as is often the case with emerging technologies, completely new areas of business will appear, which we cannot even imagine yet.
“Bill Gates said it will cost 10 Microsoft a breakthrough in machine learning. Microsoft is worth $ 550-600 billion, Wood says. “We believe deep learning will cost twice as much and come close to a $ 17 trillion market capitalization. That's the cost of 35 Amazon."
Autonomous taxis will supplant automakers
In the future, cars will be self-driving.
“This is the biggest change the auto industry has faced in history,” says Wood.
Today's automakers have a trillion dollar global market capitalization. Meanwhile, companies that provide transportation and travel services are valued at $ 115 billion. If this estimate included a future without drivers, it would be higher.
A mobility-as-a-service market that will bring down the cost of travel “from point A to point B” will cost more than all modern automakers combined. Twice as much. As gross sales rise to $ 10 trillion in early 2030, 20% of that will come from service providers. That's about $ 2 trillion.
Wood says the market will be dominated by several companies, and Tesla may well be one of them. She develops equipment, electric vehicles and software, self-driving algorithms. And although analysts now view the company as a purely car manufacturer, this will not always be the case.
“We believe that even if Tesla took 5% of the global autonomous taxi market, it would be worth about $ 100 billion,” Wood says.
3D printing will accelerate by scaling sales of finished products
3D printing has become part of the mainstream mainly due to the promise of affordable desktop printers. But they are still imperfect, and the dream of a home replicator remains elusive. However, the manufacturing industry is much closer to using 3D printers at scale.
Not long ago, Carbon teamed up with Adidas to mass-produce footwear. This is important because industrial 3D printing is focused on prototyping, making it cheaper, improving the quality and speed of production of finished products.
According to ARK, the 3D printing market could gain $ 41 billion by 2020, and McKinsey predicts it will grow to $ 490 billion by 2025. 3D printing can become part of the industrial manufacturing process.
CRISPR Launches Genetic Therapy, But It Doesn't Stop
According to ARK, the cost of genome editing has dropped 28-52 times (depending on reagents) over the past four years. CRISPR is a technique that brings the genome editing revolution closer by reducing the time and cost of efficient gene editing. Despite all its potential, investors are not yet eager to invest in it.
“There are about 10,000 monogenic or unicellular diseases. Only 5% are treatable today,”she says. ARK estimates that treatment for these diseases translates into $ 70 billion annually. Other areas of interest include stem cell therapy research, personalized medicine, drug development, agriculture, biofuels, and more.
Wood believes that expectations in this industry are still low.
Mobile payments will grow 15 times by 2020
By 2020, 75% of the world's population will have a smartphone. Among other uses for smartphones, mobile payments will be hugely popular. Combined with improved security (biometrics) and widespread adoption (NFC and POS), mobile payments will grow 15 times, from 1 trillion today to 15 trillion in 2020.
Moreover, if transactions become more flexible and hassle-free, they will be key to financial integration of a divided economy in emerging and developed markets. And big emerging markets like India and China will be at the forefront.
“The change will start in Asia,” says Wood. “Look at companies like Tencent and Alipay. They are already moving very quickly towards mobile technology and paving the way for us."
Robots and automation will release 12 trillion by 2035
Robots now work not only for automakers. With continuous cost savings and easier programming, businesses are more attracted to robots. The robotic workforce in Amazon warehouses has grown from 1,000 to 50,000 since 2014. “And they never deliberately fired anyone at their distribution centers,” Wood says.
But fears of job loss are well founded.
This is just the beginning of a big cycle of automation that comes with cheap, smart, safe and flexible robots. There will be many replacements. But don't write off the performance gains. By 2035, US GDP will be 12 trillion more with robotization and automation - an economy of $ 40 trillion instead of $ 28 trillion.
“This is the history of technology. Performance. New products and services. The challenge for investors is to figure out where the $ 12 trillion is. Now it is difficult to imagine how difficult it was to imagine what the Internet will become in the early 90s."
Blockchain and cryptocurrency
Blockchain-based cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Steem have received a lot of attention in recent years. In addition to bitcoin, there are about 700 cryptocurrencies in various shapes and shades today. Bitcoin still dominates with a market value of $ 40 billion (it was $ 3 billion two years ago). But this is only half of the whole.
“The market is just emerging. There are many problems in the crypto world now, but the prospect is great."
Like all emerging markets, the cryptocurrency market is "characterized by enthusiasm, uncertainty and speculation." According to various estimates, the total value of this market in 10 years will exceed a trillion dollars.
Beyond that, there is at least one big industry that blockchain and cryptocurrencies could turn around: the cross-border money sending business, that is, remittances.
ILYA KHEL