According to Dr. Fergus Simpson, the chance that humanity will become extinct before the end of the century is 13 percent.
The mathematician and scientist of the University of Barcelona, Dr. F. Simpson, has calculated that at any time during the current century, there is a 0.2 percent (or 1/500) probability that the Day of Judgment will come, as a result of which humanity will disappear. He outlined his reasoning in the article “Apocalypse Now? Reviving the Doomsday Argument”.
In his work, the scientist notes that despite the statistical conclusions, it is extremely naive to think that the risk of a global catastrophe, which will entail the disappearance of the human race, and which can occur in any year, is extremely small.
Currently, eight states in the world have nuclear weapons, so doing nothing is at least irresponsible and even dangerous.
If we analyze in detail the calculations of Dr. Simpson, it becomes quite obvious that compared with some similar studies, his forecasts are quite optimistic. So, for example, in a study by the astronomer from Great Britain Martin Rees, it is indicated that the chance of human extinction by the end of this century is 50 percent.
According to Simpson, some kind of global catastrophe does not necessarily have to occur. Overpopulation, global warming or food depletion can be devastating in and of itself.
It is for this reason that scientists should urgently begin research aimed at reducing various kinds of global risks, because if humanity cannot escape the inevitable, then at least it should try to do everything possible to delay this inevitable.