We live in an era of great changes, when the ethnic structure of the population of many countries of the world is changing radically. This is due to both large-scale migration processes and phenomena occurring within individual regions and countries. Who will be honored to "inherit" the Earth?
Great migration of peoples
We can say that this is the time of the new great migration of peoples. Hundreds of millions of people leave their homes and travel thousands of kilometers in search of a better life. In 2013, a UN report stated that the total number of international migrants (not to be confused with internal migration) in the world is 232 million people, which is approximately 3.2% of the world's population. Most migrants live in the United States: their number is 45 million people. Then comes Russia, on whose territory there are more than 11 million migrants. Germany closes the top three, where the number of immigrants from other countries is 9.8 million.
Note that this is typical not only for Western countries. In Saudi Arabia, for example, the number of immigrants in the general population structure exceeds 30%. The five countries with the largest number of migrants also included the United Arab Emirates: about 8 million immigrants from other countries live on their territory (this despite the fact that the population of the UAE is only 8.5 million inhabitants).
Let's note a few important points: the above statistics does not take into account tourists, interns and students. In addition, it is difficult to record undocumented migrants, the number of which is very large. However, the trend is also obvious: every year more and more people seek to leave their homeland. According to experts of the International Organization for Migration, by the middle of the century the number of international migrants will increase from 230-250 to over 400 million people.
What are the reasons for the migration of peoples in the XXI century? The main problem is that the conditional "new century" covers only 1/7 of the world's population, while the lion's share of countries remains at a much lower level of development. The population of the backward regions is growing, and modern communications allow millions of people to move from one point of the planet to another. In other words, international migration is a long-term trend, and it can have a variety of consequences.
Migration balance in 2008 / & copy; Wikipedia
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Post-industrial world
No matter how massive migration was, it could not have such a strong impact on the structure of the population, if not for the important changes taking place in the modern post-industrial world. First of all, we are talking about a decrease in the birth rate. It is known that for a simple replacement of generations, the total fertility rate should be 2.1 children per woman. In modern Germany, meanwhile, this figure is 1.4. In 2015, the country even ousted Japan from the podium, where the birth rate is also very low. In this state of affairs, international migrants are gradually replacing the local population.
Some blame the low birth rate on the “crisis of spirituality” and the “atheistic West”. But these theses seem far-fetched. For example, in very religious Italy, the birth rate is lower than in Sweden, where the percentage of atheists is almost the highest in the world. In Muslim theocratic Iran, there are now 1.9 children per woman - this figure is slightly higher than the birth rate in the US and EU countries. We can also see similar trends in dozens of countries in Asia and Latin America. The ones where a few decades ago women could give birth to ten children and this was considered the norm.
The reasons for the decline in the birth rate should be sought in the general level of development of the country, and not at all in spirituality or other abstract concepts. The birth rate is lower where the industrial and post-industrial types of economy are dominant. Therefore, “new hands” are not needed for agriculture, and a person can live by working exclusively for himself. We also add that developed countries have high pensions and this negates the need to have offspring. In a number of industrialized countries, the birth rate was high for a long time. But this happened by inertia, and in our post-industrial age we no longer observe this.
This theory, of course, cannot explain all demographic metamorphoses. But she, in particular, provides an answer why the birth rate in rural areas is traditionally higher than in the city. And also, why in different countries located in different parts of the world, we observe similar trends. The theory explains the paradox, according to which residents of wealthy states are often childless, and starving countries have positive demographic dynamics. It also does not reduce everything to religion or philosophy, cyclical decline or flourishing of certain cultures.
Display of fertility by country, 2008 / & copy; Wikipedia
Earth of the future
We have considered the main aspects affecting the growth / decline of the world's population. Now let's pay attention to the forecasts of experts. It is logical to assume that the population of the underdeveloped countries will grow, while the number of the more developed countries will decrease. There are, however, exceptions. In France, the fertility rate is at the level required for simple generational replacement: its coefficient is 2.1. But this indicator is achieved at the expense of representatives of national minorities living in the country, maintaining a high birth rate.
In general, Asia and Africa will become the main locomotives of natural population growth. In the summer of 2015, the Population Information Bureau (USA) presented a forecast that by 2050, 80% of the world's population will be African and Asian. This will generate profound structural changes around the world. The economic and cultural center of the world, for example, can be transferred from West to East. And the Asians will dictate their "rules of the game" to the world. By the middle of the century, this part of the world will remain the most populous: 5.3 billion people will live on its territories.
African countries, especially Nigeria, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, have a huge demographic (and not only) potential. In Nigeria, for example, by the end of the century, the population may grow to 439 million. Thus, this country may become one of the world or, at least, regional centers.
A similar forecast was announced by the head of the UN demographic department, John R. Wilmoth. According to the conclusions of the experts of this organization, by the middle of the century the population of the Earth will grow from the current 7.3 billion to 9.7 billion. And by the end of the century the total population will increase to 11.2 billion. This is the average projected indicator: the minimum is 9.5 billion., the maximum is 13.3. First of all, the growth of the human population will be provided by the African countries located to the south of the Sahara. In general, by the end of the century, the population of the Black Continent may increase from the current 1.2 billion to 3.4-5.6 billion inhabitants.
Nigeria / & copy; Reuters
Plus or minus
The birth rate in African countries is also gradually decreasing, but this is happening very slowly - much slower than it was in the states of Asia and Latin America in the 70-80s of the last century. The reason is simple: African countries are extremely backward, and their population remains traditional. The one that does not require fabulous money for the education and employment of children and in which they are not a burden, but a means of subsistence. In countries with a traditional economy, only the younger generation can provide more or less decent old age for their parents.
We must agree with the experts who do not predict an imminent decline in the birth rate on the Black Continent. There are simply no prerequisites for this. While many Asian countries in the second half of the 20th century developed very rapidly, Africa is teetering on the brink of life and death. Lack of food and water, religious extremism and constant wars - all this "conserves" the backwardness of Africa, preventing it from taking a step forward. Of course, the GDP of the same Nigeria in 2014 grew by 7%. But we see such an indicator only because we are dealing with a very backward country. And in such cases, the economy often shows a sharp and spasmodic growth. Let's not forget that 90% of Nigeria's export revenues come from oil, and this, too, as we have seen recently, has its risks.
However, by the end of the century, the world's population is still stabilizing. According to experts from the leading English-language journal Nature, this will happen with a probability of 85%. By this time, some countries may practically die out (at least if we talk about the indigenous people). The first place among such outsiders has been occupied by the CIS countries for many years. First of all, these are Russia and Ukraine: here the low birth rate, typical for post-industrial countries, is adjacent to very high mortality.
The mortality rate in Ukraine and Russia is about twice as high as in Europe. In most of Africa, this figure is even higher, but there the birth rate is incomparably higher than in Europe. There are also frankly frightening predictions. For example, ex-CIA director Michael Vincent Hayden said that in the next 40 years the population of the Russian Federation will decrease by 32 million. The figures seem exaggerated, but one cannot say that they have no basis.
Change in the population of the Russian Federation / & copy; Federal State Statistics Service
Scientists joke
Rather, amateurs. This year, a Reddit user with the nickname TeaDranks presented an interesting map to the public. On it, the size of a state is determined by the number of people living on its territory. Almost the entire territory of modern Russia is occupied by China, and next to it is simply gigantic India (to the right of it there is an insanely large Bangladesh). In Africa, Nigeria "crawled" over a good quarter of the continent, and the United States practically ousted Canada from the world map. The inhabitants of Australia were also not lucky: this country is also almost invisible.
The Reddit user chose Paint as a tool for creating a map, and drew the data from open sources. Something similar, by the way, was presented in 2005 by another cartographer - Paul Breding.
It would be naive to make a forecast based on such visual indicators. Meanwhile, India and China may indeed become the superpowers of the 21st century. Obviously, Americans and Europeans will retain their influence. But this is a completely different topic for discussion.
Size of Countries by Population / & copy; Reddit
Ilya Vedmedenko
