Over the past 23 thousand years, the sea level has risen by 4.6 meters only due to the melting of glaciers. An increase in this indicator by another two meters will be catastrophic for millions of people. The complete disappearance of ice in the Arctic, and this, according to some estimates, will lead to an increase in ocean level at once by seven to eight meters, will be disastrous for the entire planet. But what will happen with Russia?
How much ice is there in the Arctic?
The Arctic contains about 10 percent of the planet's ice. However, its number in the region is constantly changing. It depends both on the season: in summer the ice cap melts, in winter it recovers, and on climatic changes. Moreover, both processes are naturally interrelated.
In February 2017, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) determined that the volume of sea ice in the Arctic is 13.38 million square kilometers, which is 260 thousand less than in January 2016. The reason for its reduction was the increase in global temperatures, WMO experts said.
After the summer of 2017, ice recovery in winter was less active, and therefore the area of the ice cap in the Arctic, according to the estimates of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), was 1.6 million square kilometers less than the average for the last 20 years. - only 4.6 million. The decrease in the area of ice in the region occurs for the fourth year in a row and, according to NASA, reaches record levels. At the same time, the minimum value was observed in 2012, when the size of the ice cap was completely reduced to 3.41 million square kilometers. Fortunately, this was followed by an unusually cold summer of 2013 and the volume of the Arctic ice cover increased by a third.
When will the Arctic Ocean cease to be Arctic?
Promotional video:
According to satellite data from the Office, sea levels have been rising by about three millimeters a year, and by seven centimeters over the past 25 years. However, scientists are convinced that the process of ice melting will accelerate over time, and by the end of the century, the level of the world's oceans will rise by 60-80 centimeters. More pessimistic views are held by researchers at the World Wildlife Fund: they expect an increase of more than a meter. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Research predicts an increase of 130 centimeters. And in part, the latest estimates coincide with the conclusions of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
In the Arctic, as a result of ice melting, perennial ice more than five meters thick has practically disappeared, the Norwegian Polar Institute said. According to scientists, their share in the early 2010s fell from 28 to six percent. The situation is aggravated by the fact that on some winter days the temperature rises to values at which the ice melts. All this suggests that on a planetary scale, it is not far away until the moment when there will be no ice left in the Arctic Ocean at all. This will lead to the fact that the level of the world's oceans will rise, according to some estimates, by seven to eight meters.
Will Russia go to the bottom?
The inhabitants of the northern regions of Russia can already see the first results of ice melting in the Arctic with the naked eye. For example, the shores of the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas have long been cleared of the ice edge. However, if the water level rises by several meters, then the inhabitants of the coastal territories will not have to rejoice for long.
Coastal cities, such as St. Petersburg and Astrakhan, will have to deal with the consequences of the disappearance of the northern ice. Makhachkala and Taganrog, which are not so high in relation to the sea level, will also be in trouble. Experts believe that as a result of the complete melting of ice on Earth - and it will lead to an increase in the level of the world's oceans by 70 meters - these cities will be completely submerged. However, an increase in the indicator by seven meters is able to turn many settlements into Russian Venice.
In addition, a huge sea may arise between Russia and Europe - as a result of the confluence of the Baltic, Kara, Caspian and Black seas. However, the probability of its formation due to the melting of the Arctic ice alone is small. At the same time, the water will flood the Lower Neman lowland, on the territory of which the Kaliningrad region is located, and the southern part of the Caspian lowland. Then it will be difficult for cities along the banks of the Volga in the section from Volgograd to the confluence of the river into the Caspian Sea. The White Sea Lowland, located in the north-west of Russia in Karelia, will also be flooded. The landscape in the North will also change. Thus, it is likely that the area of the Lapetv Sea and the East Siberian Sea will increase due to the territories of the North Siberian and Yano-Indigirskaya lowlands.
But in Central Russia and the Far East, the rise in ocean level as a result of melting ice in the Arctic will not be reflected. The East European and West Siberian Plains, as well as the Central Russian Upland are at least 100 meters above the sea, so they are not afraid even of the disappearance of the entire ice cover of the earth. The Urals are not threatened with flooding. The Crimea and Krasnodar Territory will also have minimal consequences.
How to prevent a threat?
Despite the fact that for Russia the consequences of melting ice will not be as devastating as for the Netherlands or Australia, rising sea levels will still force the problem of resettlement of approximately 8 million people from the flooded territories. Fortunately, there is time before the critical moment: according to experts, the existing system of locks will allow it to withstand an increase of 60-80 centimeters. But it's still worth thinking about taking the necessary measures - building new water protection facilities or erecting special houses.
At the same time, one can hope that not all the threatening forecasts of researchers will come true. After all, the scientists themselves emphasize that in terms of reliability, long-term estimates are inferior to estimates by 20-25 years.