Autumn 2019 in Europe, contrary to all expectations, turned out to be abnormally warm and the end of October for many territories from the English Channel to the Urals was marked by record temperatures above + 25 ° C in the entire history of observations. And even in spite of the close November it is still very warm in Europe.
No one clearly explains what caused this warming, since even such a blurry and prancing warm time period like "Indian summer" is usually observed until October 20, by which all warming ends. But it was not there.
According to the enlightened Russian meteorologists from Rossiyskaya Gazeta, by the beginning of November, temperatures in the center of the European part of Russia will exceed the October norm by 7-8 degrees, and daytime temperatures in the region of 11-16 degrees will be accompanied by short-term rains. And they are to blame for everything - global warming and some kind of anticyclone, on which forecasters traditionally blame.
However, since everyone is interested not in what the talking heads are broadcasting, but in what is actually happening, we are happy to explain. More precisely - we give explanations of the BOM, that is, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, where now it seems that the most intelligent people from the climate experts are sitting.
According to BOM experts, there is a long-observed phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which they called IOD, that is, the Indian Ocean Dipole or Indian Ocean Dipole. This weather dipole has two poles: the East Pole, located near Sumatra, and the West Pole, which is located in the western Indian Ocean.
There is a significant temperature difference between these areas, which forms cold wet winds directed towards Australia, carrying rain:
Promotional video:
But this year everything looks like this:
As you can see from the diagrams, the dipole changed poles and now hot humid air goes from Indonesia to North Africa and from there is already pressing with a warm front on Europe, bringing warming and precipitation.
This dipole is observed there every year, thus bringing a "mysterious Indian summer" to Europe, but this year the dipole intensity (that is, the difference in humidity and temperature) broke all records in the history of observations and now in Australia it is like a "cold drought", and in Europe, an abnormally warm autumn and a reason for joy. However, this joy, alas, will not last long.
Although the BOM explains the anomalous warming very well and clearly, they ignore the main thing: the reason for the jump in the orientation of the temperature dipole. And this reason is simple and we talked about it back in August, when travelers over Antarctica saw the so-called “sudden stratospheric warming” - that is, a sharp increase in air temperature at an altitude of about 30-50 kilometers:
In the Northern Hemisphere, this has been observed for several years in a row and is called “splitting of the circumpolar vortex,” that is, when cold air from the pole does not rise to the upper atmosphere, but creeps to the continents:
And now, for clarity, let's turn this diagram over so that it illustrates, as it were, Antarctica:
That's the whole mystery of the abnormally warm autumn: a circumpolar vortex split over Antarctica, which caused a flow of cold air to Australia and further to Indonesia, a dipole was formed there, and warm air went to North Africa and Europe. Everything is very simple.
But, winter is approaching and the splitting of the circumpolar vortex is already outlined at the North Pole. Last year, all the icy air from there went to the United States, where even the arrows froze at level crossings. From here this year, the cold air, according to the theory of probability, will have to fall on Europe, so we are following the development of events.
