Who among the readers of the older generation does not remember the anthem of space pioneers - "And the apple trees will bloom on Mars" - from the wonderful Soviet film "A Dream Towards"? Meanwhile, the transformation of the Red Planet will require a titanic effort of the planetary engineering of the future. First of all, it is necessary to increase the density of the Martian atmosphere tenfold, then heat the planet to above-zero temperatures and fill it with moisture. Unfortunately, the results of recent studies show that such terraforming of Mars seems to be a matter of a very distant future. And even then, our distant descendants, most likely, will feast on only greenhouse fruits.
Planetary Engineering
The principle of changing celestial bodies "not suitable" for man is much older than astronautics itself. It was developed by Konstantin Eduardovich Tsiolkovsky, who believed that on many planets and even on the Moon, it was possible to create "human conditions" acceptable for earthly colonists.
In the 1970s, the idea of "planetary engineering" was put forward by the famous astronomer and scientific popularizer Karl Sagan, in particular, he believed that one should start by melting the Martian poles. Since that time, the literary space has been constantly replenished with one or another idea of planetary restructuring. The target of science fiction writers was the Moon, and Venus, and the moons of Jupiter, and objects from the asteroid belt. However, most often the views of writers and scientists turned to the Red planet, relatively close to Earth.
How did today's opinion about Martian terraforming come about? Why do the fantastic worlds of Alexei Tolstoy ("Aelita"), Edgar Burroughs ("Princess of Mars") and Ray Bradbury ("The Martian Chronicles") seem so unattainable to us even in the perspective of the next century?
What's the atmosphere?
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In theory, the terraforming of Mars should begin with filling the atmosphere with carbon dioxide contained in the bowels of the planet. Then somewhere at the end of the next century, the colonists could, just like the Strugatsky brothers in the "Trainees", freely walk on the surface only in light oxygen masks and warm overalls.
All calculations of this optimistic version are based on the fact that as the Martian atmosphere is saturated with carbon dioxide, a greenhouse effect will develop on the Red Planet, which will warm it up. However, a number of astronomers from Moscow State University believe that, unlike Earth, there are no powerful sources of greenhouse gases on Mars and the greenhouse effect will never begin there. In addition, the reserves of carbon dioxide in the bowels of the planet are practically inaccessible. To get to them, you need fantastic technology - like those shown in the Hollywood blockbuster Total Recall. By the way, the plot of the film largely repeats the ideas of the pre-war novel by Alexander Belyaev "The Air Seller". Today, it is well known that the atmosphere of Mars is 96 percent carbon dioxide and is completely unfit for breathing. In addition, the Martian air is extremely rarefied, and the pressure at the surface is only a fraction of a percent of the Earth's. Therefore, the main task of enthusiasts for terraforming the Red Planet is to search for sources of gases, and it is desirable that these were greenhouse compounds, like carbon dioxide.
Polar dry ice
Recently, astronomers from the famous Pulkovo Observatory decided to critically consider various scenarios for Martian terraforming. To do this, they analyzed all known data transmitted over the past decades by Martian rovers and probes.
At present, the average temperature on Mars is minus 63 degrees, while short-term positive values are also possible. It turned out that the main source of the atmosphere is polar carbon dioxide. Every winter, a third of the entire atmosphere turns into "dry ice" and is deposited on the surface, forming polar caps clearly visible through telescopes. In summer, these polar ice domes melt and the atmosphere is saturated with carbon dioxide. At the same time, the northern cap loses almost all of its dry ice and disappears, and at the south pole, even in summer, part of the ice dome remains. In addition, some evidence indicates that extensive underground dry ice deposits may exist in the south.
All this does not yet allow an unambiguous answer to the question: how could the atmosphere of Mars be changed so that the greenhouse effect began to develop on the surface, and it began to gradually warm up.
At the same time, all the discovered and hidden polar gas fields are unlikely to be able to provide the greenhouse effect and, accordingly, begin the first stage of terraforming. After all, even if all known dry ice were turned into gas, atmospheric pressure would be only a few percent of the earth's.
Other sources of carbon dioxide are not encouraging either. Unlike our planet, minerals, including carbon dioxide, are quite rare on Mars, so increasing the pressure with their help, at least up to two to three percent of the Earth's, is very problematic. True, it is possible that the entire surface of Mars contains carbon dioxide on the edges of grains of sand, and while it is completely unclear how to extract these gas molecules, they can add another percent to atmospheric pressure.
And yet, to heat up to positive temperatures and melt water ice, the pressure must be at least a third of the earth's.
Bomb for the planet
However, there is an interesting project for the radical terraforming of Mars, voiced at various times by Andrei Sakharov and Stephen Hawking; it is currently being promoted by the American inventor and entrepreneur Elon Musk. In fact, it is very easy to just persuade the atomic powers to share their strategic atomic ammunition, and then detonate thermonuclear charges over the Martian poles. According to calculations, this should rather quickly increase the thickness of the atmosphere of Mars and reduce the lack of atmospheric pressure to an acceptable minimum. In general, the pressure can rise to an acceptable level and become the same as at a ten-kilometer height above the Earth. Then, under the sun's rays, reserves of liquid water are formed in the equatorial part, and periodically melting vast glaciers will appear in the polar and circumpolar regions.
Musk notes that if the pressure on the planet's surface rises to 1 bar, the temperature on Mars could exceed zero degrees Celsius. In this case, the water would not freeze, and people got by with special breathing masks, and not lunar-type spacesuits.
Plants could appear on the planet, gradually increasing the concentration of oxygen, first in greenhouses, and then in the atmosphere.
There are other carbon sources on Mars. This element is present in both soil and mineral deposits. Recent speculations suggest that a large carbon pool may lie deep beneath the planet's surface. However, scientists at the moment do not have a sufficient set of data that could confirm this assumption. And even if they could confirm, then getting to these reserves, as mentioned above, is quite difficult. True, atomic charges can also be used here.
Yet optimists believe Mars contains enough natural resources to transform the planet's atmosphere into a temperate, humid greenhouse.
Volcanoes and space mirrors
In contrast to the "explosive" plans of supporters of the extreme, there is an influential scientific party of "soft" terraforming. Another American astrophysicist Carl Sagan proposed painting polar glaciers or planting frost-resistant mosses and dark lichens there. In the 1970s, he came up with several ways to dramatically increase the flow of solar heat using colossal mirrors orbiting Mars. He believed that by the middle of our century on Mars, the transformation of its atmosphere would be taking place. At the same time, space mirrors will not only melt polar ice, but also expose karst caves, in which the colonists set up bases. Giant greenhouses will be built on the surface for the adaptation of genetically modified plants, which, after acclimatization, will be planted in the soil on an open surface. The red planet will begin to slowly but surely turn green.
Not so long ago, Elon Musk convened a conference on the colonization of Mars. In the next decade, the head of the corporations "Tesla" and "SpaceX" plans to organize a landing on the Red Planet. To do this, thousands of lucky people will rush into space on the latest space vehicles, who have paid 200 thousand dollars for a one-way ticket. On Mars, they will build several bases, which will gradually merge into a metropolis.
Terraforming will take place in parallel. If the plans for polar nuclear explosions and artificial bombardment by comet nuclei guided by the same atomic charges are deemed too dangerous, it is proposed to launch "option B". On it, using ordinary explosives, the colonists will "awaken" hundreds of volcanoes, which will saturate the atmosphere with greenhouse gases and heat the planet. They will be helped by thousands of compact generators of highly active greenhouse gases, such as chlorofluorocarbons. They will fill the greenhouses, and the excess will be dumped into the atmosphere.
If this is not enough, hundreds of square kilometers of the thinnest reflective film for orbiting mirrors will be delivered from Earth.
It is difficult to say whether the plans of terraforming enthusiasts will come true in our lifetime, but it is quite possible that already in the next century, "the former Red Planet" will be written about the brown-green Mars …
Magazine: Secrets of the 20th century №35. Author: Oleg Faig