This article is a futurological forecast for the near future. But first I will write a few words about futurological forecasts in general. If we talk about futurology and futurological forecasts, as about a certain established direction, then it should be noted that, of course, almost all of these forecasts are nothing more than perfect dregs. The fact that this is dregs follows from a very simple fact - from the fact that the authors of such forecasts, even if they try to claim that this forecast is based on authoritative opinions, serious scientific research, etc., never try to make a systematic forecast., i.e., consider the existing trends as a whole, consider the interconnections of processes occurring in the world, etc. (which is, in general,quite a common sign of unreasonableness as a lack of striving for a holistic worldview and systemic thinking). Instead, some completely private trends are usually taken and these trends are simply extrapolated into the future. So, in the imagination of futurologists of the late 19th - early 20th century. At the time when we live with you, airships flew in huge heaps across the sky, self-propelled sidewalks drove through the streets, and automatic drinkers for horses were installed on lamp posts. Predictions trying to predict the social evolution of society, for example, the famous "1984" Orwell, also constructed by him by methods of simple extrapolation of the tendencies that he observed in 30-40s in Europe, did not come true either. The insolvency of almost all forecasts gives rise to skepticism among some authors in general to any attempts to predict the future. However, is it possible to predict the future in practice? Certainly. To do this, you need to pay attention not to private, randomly ripped out of existing realities, facts, and not to compose, giving free rein to imagination, unfounded conjectures, but to build a holistic, systemic picture and start, first of all, from objectively (and not assigned as such by the will of a futurologist) fundamental trends. So let's move on to the forecast.
1) The main factors and circumstances that determine the development of events in the future
The main direction of the evolution of mankind, throughout its existence, are the integration processes leading to the emergence and improvement of more and more complex forms of society, within which interaction between people is carried out, and this process of complication of the forms of human associations leads in parallel and to the complication of such associations, and to the complication, the development of individual personal, intellectual, etc. qualities of the participants in these associations, which is gradually increasingly alienating a person from his ape-like ancestors, endowing him with more and more complex motives and methods in relation to the world. In the 4-level concept, it was already mentioned that the traits characteristic of a modern person are not natural or in any way naturally arising in the course of the development of the individual,but are exclusively cultural and social in nature and owe their emergence only to the formation of civilization. In this regard, it should be understood that no factors, no matter how significant or indisputable they may seem, will always be subordinate to the main trends and direction of evolution of the cultural and social system. In particular, neither the moods and needs of individuals, nor the will of political leaders, nor scientific discoveries, etc., etc. will be able to reverse the existing cultural and social trends. For example, the inhabitants of the USSR at the turn of the 90s hardly wanted the collapse of the country, a sharp, several times increase in prices and hyperinflation, the governments of Western countries in the post-war period were not very eager to grant independence to all their colonies, and the advantages of gunpowder, which was invented in China still in the 6th century,For some reason, it was not the Chinese who took advantage of it, but the Europeans, to whom it came 8 centuries later. Thus, the main factors that need to be taken into account when making a forecast for the future are cultural and social factors considered at the level of civilization. Farther. You need to pay attention to two more points. The first point is what is the structure of the cultural and social stratum and what is the foundation, the main defining feature of cultural and social factors. As already indicated in the 4-level concept, and was repeated later in other articles on this site, the basis of the cultural and social layer is the motivational-value component. The motivational and value component that determines the main aspirations of members of society and those criteriawhich for them play a role in assessing the degree of their achievements and the degree of success and completeness of their existence, is the main universal basis through which people can coexist within a single society. The motivational-value component, in turn, becomes the basis for the formation of certain schemes, patterns of interaction between people, setting the principles of their behavior in society. Finally, in the last turn, what can be called technology is formed - a worked-out set of methods and concretized rules that make it possible to solve the tasks set for civilization within the framework of a given value system in the most effective way. It should be understood, in particular, that at each stage of the development of civilization, upon reaching the ceiling of advancement within the framework of a given value system, an upgrade of the value system is required,with the introduction of new motives and aspirations, without which any further progress is impossible, and any progressive preconditions, even if they exist, are killed, first of all, due to their lack of demand in this model of society. For example, practically all the prerequisites that led to the industrial revolution in Western Europe in the first half of the 19th century existed in the 1-3 centuries. in the Roman Empire - the Romans knew how to smelt steel and used concrete, ancient inventors built prototypes of machines operating on steam energy, and the level of development of the economy and infrastructure was quite sufficient for the implementation of large-scale projects, but the principles of a slave society prevailing at that time,with a priority in the motivational-value system and in relations between people of power and power before the benefit and economic interest, put an end to all these prerequisites. Values and motives are what determine the potential and capabilities of a society. The second point is that, after the end of the era of the primitive communal system and the transition to civilization, each civilization, with its unique cultural and social heritage, was a local community. To this day, humanity consists of such local civilizations, and the so-called. world civilization does not really exist. Some seeming unity is actually an illusion, and the period of separate development of different cultures, under the influence of their own local tendencies, is by no means over. Values and motives are what determine the potential and capabilities of a society. The second point is that, after the end of the era of the primitive communal system and the transition to civilization, each civilization, with its unique cultural and social heritage, was a local community. To this day, humanity consists of such local civilizations, and the so-called. world civilization does not really exist. Some seeming unity is actually an illusion, and the period of separate development of different cultures, under the influence of their own local tendencies, is by no means over. Values and motives are what determine the potential and capabilities of a society. The second point is that, after the end of the era of the primitive communal system and the transition to civilization, each civilization, with its unique cultural and social heritage, was a local community. To this day, humanity consists of such local civilizations, and the so-called. world civilization does not really exist. Some seeming unity is actually an illusion, and the period of separate development of different cultures, under the influence of their own local tendencies, is by no means over. To this day, humanity consists of such local civilizations, and the so-called. world civilization does not really exist. Some seeming unity is actually an illusion, and the period of separate development of different cultures, under the influence of their own local tendencies, is by no means over. To this day, humanity consists of such local civilizations, and the so-called. world civilization does not really exist. Some seeming unity is actually an illusion, and the period of separate development of different cultures, under the influence of their own local tendencies, is by no means over.
2) Assessment of the current stage and a global perspective
The list of stages and general patterns that are observed during their change have already been given in the 4-level concept. Let me remind you that in general, the era of civilization consists of 4 stages, each with a duration of about 1500-2000 years, and at the moment we are in a transitional period from the third stage, which corresponded to the emotional worldview and its characteristic motives and values, to the fourth, which will be conform to a reasonable worldview. At the moment, civilization has almost completely exhausted its development potential within the framework of the old system of values and is moving in its present form towards inevitable collapse. In fact, we are entering a new Middle Ages, the third in a row, after the so-called. "Dark ages" 1200-600 BC,that happened after the collapse of the first model of civilization and ended with the formation of the ancient (in Europe) civilization and the "Middle Ages" of 500-1200 AD, that happened after the collapse of the ancient civilization and ended with the formation of modern Western European civilization. Currently, Western European civilization, in turn, is at the stage of natural and irreversible decomposition. The main signs of such decomposition (which was also described in the 4-level concept) are the atomization of society, the collapse of existing traditions and restrictions, the erection of motives and values that are fundamental for the dominant (i.e., emotional, in this case) worldview, and bringing them to logical absurdity, in which they become an end in itself, completely independent of any conditions. The obsession of society members on obtaining primitive pleasures and pleasant emotions for themselves by any means inevitably leads to the destruction of the flexibility and constructive potential of society and the inability to adequately assess it and solve the tasks facing it. Looking at the current state of Western European civilization, it is easy to see the obvious parallels between it and the state of Roman civilization during its decline. The processes taking place in modern Western countries practically copy the analogous processes that took place in the Roman Empire. The decomposition of Roman society began in the same way with moral decline, the collapse of traditions, the decline of citizens' interest in public life and their enthusiasm for the pursuit of material goods, cheap mass entertainment, etc.; there was cultural and ideological primitivization,instead of traditional religion, various cults, superstitions, etc., borrowed from the East, spread, the diversity of which was not only not condemned, but also encouraged. A demographic decline began in the empire, occurring in parallel with the disintegration of the institution of the family and a fall in the birth rate (in Western Europe, a negative natural increase has been observed since the early 70s), then there is a massive influx of barbarians (in Europe and the United States - migrants from third world countries), replacing the indigenous population, not wanting to occupy not too prestigious positions, while all of them are granted Roman citizenship and the differences between the barbarians and the indigenous population are eliminated. Moreover, if at first there was at least some assimilation of the barbarians, then later the barbarians began to live in the empire in separate communities according to their own laws,not wanting to accept the order established by the Romans (and this we also already see in Western countries). The “globalization” that we are witnessing now is also, in fact, a repetition of globalization that once took place in the space of the Roman Empire. In a vast area, from Scotland to Mesopotamia, Rome established uniform laws, implanted (and did it successfully) uniform orders instead of traditions belonging to local ethnic groups, melted cultures of different peoples within its empire. In the Roman Empire, there was (just like in the modern world) the division of labor between the provinces, while Italy, the former central province of the empire, by the end of Rome's existence completely lost its economic autonomy, becoming completely dependent on supplies from other provinces of the empire (the same we we are now observing the example of the United States and Western Europe,production capacities in which more and more are emptied, due to the transfer to China, etc., not to mention the dependence of these countries on imports of raw materials). We see both the stagnation and decline of fundamental science while the emphasis is shifted only to applied technologies, which was also observed at one time in Rome … With all the uniqueness and inevitability, the global perspective of the near future is that it will be a time of fall with a big roar of everything the present moment of the system of the world order and all institutions of civilization of the old Western European model - the world of civilization, which contains at its core a system of values based on an emotional worldview. This will be the end of modern culture, modern science, modern economic and social models,moreover, the end not with a pronounced smooth transition to something replacing them, but with a collapse, decline, collapse, with the advent of spontaneously emerging new forms and rudiments of social institutions instead, which have just to develop into something more complex and highly organized, and subsequently rise to a higher level in comparison with modern times, spending a very long period of time on it. Why is there no practical way to avoid such a development of events? Firstly, as history shows, it is practically impossible to induce an unreasonable humanity to abandon harmful, but habitual motives and stereotypes of behavior until the visible consequences that people experience on their own skin begin. But even,if people realized the need to change the value system and voluntarily accept other motives and aspirations as a guide, it would be impossible to carry out any smooth transition from the existing system, including all its institutions, laws, principles of relations between people, etc., to new, more correct, because a new, more correct system has just to be formed, and it should be formed, starting from its foundation, in a completely different way than the one that exists at the moment.starting from its foundation, completely different from the one that exists at the moment.starting from its foundation, completely different from the one that exists at the moment.
Promotional video:
3) Local civilizations and their perspectives
First of all, let us introduce concepts such as "old" and "new" civilizations. What are old and new civilizations? As already mentioned in the 4-level concept, although civilizations arise locally, but in the regions where they contact each other (and today, unlike the 5th century AD, where there were still isolated regions of civilizations from each other - Eurasia with Africa and America, the whole world is a single whole), these civilizations go through stages in concert - arising in one time period and experiencing decline in one time period. All such civilizations that arise at the beginning of a stage (for example, Egypt, Babylon, the Hittite state and the Mycenaean and Cretan civilizations in Greece) have a culture based on the same value system, the same type of worldview and develop parallel, and thusthey need to be considered not separately, but as a group, moreover, as a group belonging to a particular stage and defining its "face". Of course, Gumilev's theory, according to which every civilization, having arisen as a result of a passionary impulse, experiences one surge of its power and perishes in degeneration and decline, is not entirely correct, but, nevertheless, it often happens that way. The "old" civilizations, which developed throughout the entire stage and experienced decline at its end, have too much burden of traditions saturated with the spirit of this stage, the spirit of the corresponding value system, which makes them inert, little capable of restructuring and, often, for this cause perish. As a result, the old civilizations are replaced by "new" civilizations, civilizations that do not have such a burden,which would be their own legacy, these civilizations usually successfully start and develop, taking the place of old ones and grinding their legacy. At one time, modern Western civilizations, created by the barbarian Germanic tribes, were "new" in relation to the ancient Roman civilization, and took its place. Now these civilizations, which arose about 1500 years ago, are already old, and others are claiming their place. Also old are the Eastern European cultures created in the early Middle Ages by Slavic tribes, including Russia, and Japan with China, and the United States, which, despite the fact that they arose quite recently by historical standards, are not independent, but all only the expanded Western European civilization. Most of the countries of the so-called are "new" civilizations. "Third world", that is.former colonies of Western countries, including Latin America, Africa and much of Asia. It is immigrants from these countries, as we can see now, penetrate into Western Europe and the United States, claiming to become the new "barbarians". Western political and economic models are widespread in these countries largely formally, not being able to significantly squeeze local traditions and orders and make a significant part of the population committed to European social models, while in the United States and Western Europe these models and social models permeate society from above. to the bottom (with the exception of all the same migrants arriving from third world countries). Thus, the "old" civilizations will soon face a severe crisis and decline that threatens their existence,The “new” ones have practically guaranteed immunity in relation to this crisis.
Let us now consider the perspectives of "old" civilizations in more detail. Any culture, ethnicity and civilization that exists and has existed on Earth can be divided into three types. We will conventionally designate these types as a-type, b-type, and c-type. The detailed description of these types is beyond the scope of this article. Here, for us, the only thing that matters is how these types of civilizations differ among themselves in the degree of resistance to the crisis that occurs during the transition from one stage to another. A-type civilizations have a kind of culture that is usually associated with the East. In the mentality of such civilizations, subjective perception prevails, a priori it is assumed that, in general, the picture of the world and the course of things depend on the person himself and his subjective, internal qualities. Japan and China, for example, are a-type civilizations. Such civilizations are the most resistant to a crisis, because the people of these civilizations, who always believe that the inner qualities of a person play a decisive role, are easiest to change their motives and values. Type b civilizations have a kind of culture that is usually associated with the West. The mentality of such civilizations is dominated by the materialistic, tending to objectify any things, including, including the internal inclinations and motives of people and the course of historical events, the perception of the world. Western Europe and the USA are typical examples of this kind of civilization. These civilizations have virtually no chance of surviving the crisis. During the crisis, people of these civilizations behave extremely passively, helplessly watching the course of events and not being able to do anything. Their tactics are usuallyuntil the end is directed only at attempts to retain what is available and does not show any incentives to reform the existing system. B-type civilizations have a culture similar to the culture of classical Greek civilization (Hellenistic). These civilizations, in their perception of the world, are prone to idealization, i.e. the decisive role is given not to objective and not subjective factors, but to certain ideas, models, schemes and abstract laws. People of such civilizations believe that the decisive role is played not by subjective attitudes and not by external conditions, but by the correctness of the chosen behavior algorithm. In fact, as mentioned above, behavioral patterns and algorithms are formed already on the basis of a certain value system, a certain choice of motivation, but the understanding of this fact largely eludes the people of these civilizations.as a result, the necessary restructuring of the motivational-value system in the proper volume is not carried out. At the same time, unlike civilizations of the b-type, such civilizations, when a crisis occurs, do not consider their fate to be predetermined and show significantly greater flexibility. As a result, when a crisis occurs, the fate of B-type civilizations may be different. In the case of irresponsible and frivolous behavior of the leaders of these civilizations, they can perish, just like the civilizations of the b-type. During the decline of ancient civilization, this happened, for example, with the civilization of the Celts, who shared the fate of the Romans. At the same time, provided that sufficiently vigorous measures are taken and the population is non-passive, these civilizations are able to survive a crisis and even experience a temporary rise and increase in their power (typical examples are Byzantium,and also Assyria, an example that was given in a 4-level concept). Russia, which, like all Slavic civilizations, is a B-type civilization, on the eve of the oncoming deep crisis, should, in order not to become a victim of it, make every effort to revive its spiritual potential, reassess the prevailing dominance of the harmful emotional worldview of the value system, as well as take a course towards maximum distance from the disastrous borrowing of Western models and social stereotypes.reassessment of the system of values that has developed over the long centuries of domination of the harmful emotional worldview, and also take a course towards maximum distance from the disastrous borrowing of Western models and social stereotypes.reassessment of the system of values that has developed over the long centuries of domination of the harmful emotional worldview, and also take a course towards maximum distance from the disastrous borrowing of Western models and social stereotypes.