It seems that they are not telling us something.
The map, with the help of which doctors in real time illustrate the situation with the spread of the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV around the world, has become one of the most popular resources on the Internet. People believe that the data that underlies it are grossly underestimated. But even from such people the soul becomes somehow uneasy. The number of cases is growing rapidly - growing at an accelerating rate. As of January 30, 2020, there were 9776 of them. A couple of days ago, it barely exceeded 6 thousand.
The current situation with the spread of the virus is reflected on a special map.
From January 30, 2020, the scale of the graph of the growth in the number of infected with the new virus has changed (lower left corner of the map). The specialists responsible for the map stretched the divisions on the timeline (X-axis), and, on the Y-axis, on the contrary, shortened them. From what the incidence curve visually became more flat. And not so depressing. Previously, it looked like a very steep parabola - at least like an X in the third, and even in the fourth degree. That is, it quickly strove towards infinity, mathematically speaking. And this led to the conclusion - at least theoretically, that very soon the number of infected will be in the billions. In short, everyone is at risk of getting sick - 7 858 772 994 people. According to forecasts, this number will reach the world's population by the end of this year.
This is the new graph of the dynamics of the spread of the virus over time.
The previous schedule looked much scarier, although in essence it was the same as the new one.
Can everyone get infected? The available data do not allow excluding such an outcome. More precisely, the absence of anything definite, reports the ScienceAlert portal.
Incubation period? The ideas are approximate: either 3 days, or all 14. And that is not a fact.
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How many can one infected person infect on average? And then there is a spread. Someone reports about 1.4 to 3.8 people, someone about 5 or more.
There is no clear description of the symptoms characteristic exclusively of a new infection. But there is a suspicion that the disease can proceed without symptoms for some time, but it can already be contagious.
And there is no clarity about the genome of the new virus - whether it has been deciphered, or not. And without this, is it possible to predict the further behavior of the infection? However, they predict that there is nothing to worry about.
While reassuring, the experts get off with general words. And they explain that the flu, for example, is much more dangerous than the current disease caused by the new coronavirus. Kills from 230 to 650 thousand people a year. And life goes on - despite the fact that many sneeze. But then why has no one “fenced off” from the influenza virus as well as from this 2019-nCoV? The borders are closing. They hide under masks. They arrange general "searches" in transport. The Chinese are caught all over the world. And the number of cases is growing.
Suddenly, only the initiated know something about the new virus - something that we better not know about. In order not to panic. And we do not panic. We believe in science, which will come up with something.
The flu is worse than the coronavirus, but the measures against the latter are somehow cooler. Is it the plague of the 21st century?
It is embarrassing, however, that there is still no vaccine against the new infection, as well as drugs. So far there is only one hope - for one's own immunity. He seems to be helping. Since there are recovered. This makes me happy. The other thing is alarming - again the numbers.
Let's look at the map again. As of January 30, 2020, 187 people were healed. Died - 213. It turns out that for one person who recovered - more than one who died. What, then, is the mortality rate? Exceeds 50 percent.
In the meantime, mortality is considered as follows: the number of deaths is divided by the number of cases. In this case, on January 30, it was (213: 9776 x 100%) 2.17 percent.
But even with such a seemingly insignificant threat, more than 170 million people can die.
One thing reassures me: all epidemics come to an end someday. And this one - Chinese - is not the end of the world.
By the way, WHO has recognized the outbreak of coronavirus in China as an emergency.
VLADIMIR LAGOVSKY