Billions and billions of planets, but we have not yet come into contact with any aliens.
The explanation for this can be a stunning theory, which scientists dubbed the "Big Filter":
“It may be that all civilizations in the world are simply doomed to extinction,” Professor James D. Miller told Aftonbladet.
The universe is teeming with stars and planets.
It is almost impossible to comprehend exactly how many of them there are: the latest calculations indicate that the number of stars is expressed by the incomprehensible figure of 700,000 trillion (700,000,000,000,000,000,000,000).
Planets revolve around most stars, and it is assumed that many of them could theoretically have life. Therefore, from the point of view of statistics, the universe should be teeming with advanced civilizations, which by now should have solved the mystery of interstellar space travel. But so far, there is still no clear evidence that they exist at all.
This amazes many scientists. If, for example, there is life on only 0.1% of exoplanets in our galaxy, which are considered potentially suitable for the emergence of life, then this means about a million planets with life.
So where are the aliens? Why don't we have contact with them?
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The answer can be found in a theory that is as exciting as it is intimidating:
“There are many planets in our universe, but we do not observe life on any of them. There is probably something that on almost all planets prevents the emergence of intelligent life, which can somehow manifest itself. “The Big Filter,” is the name of a theory that tries to explain it,”says James Miller, professor of economics at Smith College in Massachusetts, USA.
Large filter
The Big Filter concept first appeared in 1996 in an article by the American economist Robin Hanson. Simply put, the idea is that there is a certain "threshold", crossing which, any life in our universe inexorably ceases, - a kind of barrier that stops a technically advanced civilization capable of colonizing the universe, preventing it from succeeding in this:
“Everything can be very simple: life does not arise at all on other planets, or it appears, but does not develop to a sufficiently intelligent state. Or - and this is the worst scenario - countless number of advanced, technologically advanced civilizations have already emerged over the years on different planets. Civilizations that learned to do calculations that landed on their moons, but then something happened to them that prevented them from going further,”says James Miller.
We are doomed too
“If civilizations like our own were commonplace, we would already have some evidence of this. The only explanation is that something made them all disappear. So if we found any evidence of the existence of extinct extraterrestrial civilizations, it would be terrible news for us earthlings. This would mean that we, too, are doomed to perish."
But what is this inevitable obstacle? Destruction of nature, nuclear war or something else that one civilization after another suffers from? And will this happen to us in the future - which means that we will soon probably cease to exist - or have we become an exception and have already managed to go through the "Big Filter", saving life?
An atomic bomb would destroy the atmosphere
“If we have already passed it, it means that we are very unusual. If the "filter" is still ahead of us, then, probably, this fate will befall us. In my opinion, we should strengthen our attempts to find evidence of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations, even extinct. Perhaps we can answer the question of what happened with They may have sent signals shortly before they went extinct, with the help of which, say, they told that they were going to conduct a high-tech physics experiment, "- says James Miller.
“According to my theory, this is some kind of hidden obstacle. If we knew in advance what could destroy civilization, we could avoid it. When the Los Alamos atomic bomb was being developed, some scientists worried that the bombs would destroy the atmosphere. This did not happen, but the risk remains that such an experiment in the future could set off a chain reaction that will destroy us. Perhaps something similar happened to other civilizations before us,”he continues.
Life is just a giant computer simulator
Not everyone, however, believes that the Big Filter concept does a good job of explaining why we haven’t come into contact with aliens so far.
“There are those who argue that the process of the emergence of life is simply much more complicated than most people think,” says James Miller.
Perhaps the strangest of all the Big Filter theories is that we don't exist at all, but are just part of a giant computer simulator. This would explain why we do not come into contact with aliens: they are simply not in the simulator.
"If the Big Filter is already left behind, it would be very strange in a sense. It would mean that we are just incredibly unique, and then the theory of a simulator can be admitted. Maybe we are part of a simulator owned by someone, who wants to see how we will act in the future? " - says James Miller.
Our civilization arose late
The idea that there is some kind of "filter" that prevents intelligent life from progressing beyond a certain stage may seem grim. But, according to James Miller, we have a small advantage on Earth - it concerns the age of our planet. Our universe is estimated to be 13.8 billion years old, but our own sun appeared “only” 4.6 billion years ago.
"If the Great Filter really destroyed most of the other civilizations that existed before us, we have an advantage in any case. If we emerged at a very early stage in the development of the universe, it would not be so surprising that we are alone. But our civilization has arisen relatively late, so it is very strange that we do not find any evidence of the existence of extraterrestrial life, "- says James Miller.
“Therefore, we have a significant reason to invest more in astronomy and in the search for extinct civilizations. If it turns out that by now thousands of civilizations existed and died out before us, we have serious reasons to find out why this happened so that we do not suffer the same fate,”he continues.
Is there a Big Filter? Or is it just a theory with no real foundation?
The answer, as they say, knows only the sky.
Fermi paradox
The Big Filter theory arose in the course of attempts to explain the so-called Fermi paradox.
It boils down to describing the contradiction between the high probability of the existence of extraterrestrial life in the Universe and the fact that we still have not found any evidence of this.
The Fermi Paradox gets its name from the Italian-American Nobel laureate Enrico Fermi, who in 1950 exclaimed "Where are they?" due to the fact that people have not found any evidence of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations.
Jon Forsling