In December 2017, US President Donald Trump signed a directive according to which the NASA aerospace agency should prepare a program for the return of American astronauts to the moon and "consider the prospects of manned missions to Mars and other planets of the solar system." The agency was given clear dates: in 2024, a person should land on the moon, in 2033 - on Mars. However, industry experts are confident that the mission to Mars will be much more difficult than the entire Apollo program of the 1960s, so 2033 is too unrealistic a date.
“The moon will be a testing ground for our ability to go to Mars,” NASA chief Jim Bridenstein said last week during the annual Human to Mars event.
However, according to Robert Howard, head of the laboratory developing future space habitats at the Lyndon Johnson Space Center, the issue of sending a man to Mars is not so much a matter of technical and scientific difficulties as of budget and political will.
Howard's pessimistic forecast was shared by other experts who took part in the event to analyze the issues of deep space exploration. Some have even said that we shouldn't dream of Mars until 2060.
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From designing, manufacturing and testing rockets and spaceships to knowing how best to grow lettuce in space, all this knowledge is bound to come in handy on such an ambitious mission. Think for yourself. It takes six months to fly one way to Mars. This is not three days of relaxed travel to the moon. The entire mission to the Red Planet can take two years, since Mars and Earth approach each other at the maximum distance only once in 26 months. And this window should be considered.
The key problem that scientists must solve before sending a man to Mars is protecting astronauts from cosmic radiation and solar radiation, notes Julie Robertson, head of NASA's scientific mission for the International Space Station.
In addition, there are a number of issues related to maintaining the health of astronauts during the flight to the Red Planet, during their work on its surface, as well as during the return of people back to Earth. We must learn how to perform complex surgery and solve other medical problems in the event of any unexpected situation.
One of the most unfortunate elements of the Apollo missions' suits was their gloves. They swelled strongly, hindering the movements of the astronauts during work. Experts note that for the first time in 40 years, NASA is developing a new spacesuit, but it will take several more years to finalize it and first test it aboard the International Space Station.
On Mars, fine dust particles will become an even more serious problem than they were on the Moon. Astronauts of the Apollo mission, upon returning to Earth, brought a large amount of dust in manned modules. In turn, maintaining the sterility of the Martian dwellings is a critical aspect, especially for missions in which people will have to live on the Red Planet for several months.
The technology needed to extract the minerals on Mars (water, fuel and oxygen) needed for human survival does not yet exist. They are being developed, but their first real tests may begin, at best, only by the end of the next decade, when the first manned expeditions will fly to the moon.
In addition, we need to address the most fundamental question: how to keep the sanity of people who will have to experience severe psychological stress for two years while the mission lasts? It will not be possible to respond to problems that have arisen in real time. Radio communications between Earth and Mars in one direction can travel from 4 to 24 minutes. NASA is going to organize a communication delay exercise with the participation of the ISS, but, again, this will happen not earlier than in a few years.
Experts are confident that for the exploration of Mars, we will need to develop and use specialized artificial intelligence that will help astronauts in their lives and work on the Red Planet. Based on all this, the task of sending a man to Mars by 2033 seems extremely unlikely.
Lal considers 2039 as a more realistic date for the first manned missions to Mars.
Nikolay Khizhnyak