Somehow, in the midst of the summer heat, a conspiracy theory appeared on the Web - apparently, it could not but appear - that “foreign special services are to blame for the abnormal weather,” and again there was talk about “climate weapons”. Paranoia paranoia, but maybe there is something in these nonsense? Or maybe?
It can be said with a high degree of certainty that the problem of climate change has become one of the most widely discussed in both scientific circles and among the population. Recently, within the framework of such discussions, the topic of climatic weapons has appeared, which has acquired an unprecedented relevance, which, first of all, in my opinion, should be associated with the abnormally hot summer and snowy winter, from which we have all recently lost the habit.
It is natural for a person to try to connect difficultly explainable phenomena with the intrigues of other people, and not try to find a logical explanation for them. Climatic weapons in this sense are quite a winning topic due to the fact that they are constant; the variability of the weather and the seeming simplicity of the changes taking place in it suggest the possibility of possessing sacred knowledge, with which, according to the principle of shamans, one can control the weather.
What do the fierce Russian fires and the catastrophic floods in Pakistan have in common, besides the scale of climatic cataclysms? Both of these disasters are associated with the general climatic anomaly of 2010 - the stabilization of jet streams in the upper atmosphere. It is not entirely clear what blocked these currents, but it could not do without the influence of the Sun and global warming.
We all know quite well that it is possible to influence some natural phenomena, and this influence is quite successfully used by mankind in its activities. This applies primarily to local (up to several tens of kilometers) zones of thunderstorm and hail activity, which create weather for several hours. Significant material and technical resources are spent to influence them, with a far from always guaranteed positive effect. The most striking examples of this unpredictability of impact are attempts to improve the weather during the celebration of the three hundredth anniversary of St. Petersburg, when it began to rain anyway.
It is widely known that the Americans influenced the upper Mekong during the Vietnam War to disable the Ho Chi Minh Trail, the road system that supplied the guerrillas in South Vietnam. Although the Americans managed to cause torrential rains and partially paralyze the supply of the guerrillas, this required huge material costs (silver iodide, dry ice, etc. are used as agents), but the effect obtained was short-lived. The results of the Vietnam War are well known.
Now imagine a situation when the impact is carried out on synoptic objects with dimensions of hundreds and thousands of kilometers, such as cyclones, anticyclones and atmospheric fronts, which determine the weather in a time period from tens of hours to several days. This requires colossal material and technical resources, and the effect of the impact is even more unpredictable and not guaranteed due to the inaccuracy of predicting the consequences of this impact.
For comparison, I will give one example. A medium-sized cumulonimbus cloud (several kilometers in diameter) contains energy comparable to that of several Hiroshima-type atomic bombs. Just think about what colossal energy is needed to influence it! And this is the most difficult task from a scientific point of view. How to concentrate the enormous amount of energy necessary to change the natural course of synoptic processes over the vast territory they occupy in a short period of time, relative to the time of their existence? After all, this energy input from the outside must be no less than that which a synoptic education possesses. In addition, it is imperative to provide for the possibility of removing the energy introduced from the outside: the synoptic formation moves, regardless of state borders.
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For example: the speed of movement of a cyclone or anticyclone is on average several tens of kilometers per hour. And whoever tries to carry out such an impact must take this fact into account, so that it does not work out "they wanted the best, but it turned out as always."
At the present level of development of technology, such a scientific and practical task is technically infeasible, although it is very tempting.
Active work in the field of guaranteed impact on weather conditions in territories of tens of kilometers is being carried out in a number of states. At the same time, active influences on the weather for military purposes are prohibited in accordance with the international convention.
The unusually warm recent winters are a reflection of global warming processes, especially clearly visible in the Arctic basin, where the ice cap is rapidly decreasing. By 2015, the Arctic may remain without ice at all. The worst thing is that the point of no return has already come there. Even if we begin to actively fight global warming, this 3 will practically not affect the rate of ice melting.
Work in the field of active influence on weather conditions in large areas will definitely be carried out. The number of states that will conduct such work will grow along with the growth of the overall economic potential of these states: weather disasters, and simply unfavorable weather conditions have a huge impact on both the growth of the economy of states, and the need to divert resources in case of unfavorable weather to overcome the consequences of weather events.
Imagine that we will be able to "control" the weather in territories of hundreds and thousands of kilometers. Then the problem with forest fires, the struggle for crops, etc., and just the problem of bad weather will be solved by switching the toggle switch.
I want to end with the words from a famous song: "Nature does not have bad weather …" Since ancient times, mankind has strived and will strive to influence the weather for its own purposes, but this must be done carefully and be sure to weigh the consequences of such interference in the natural course of natural processes.
