Hundreds of foci of infection appear here and there every year. But only a few of these foci give rise to epidemics, and in order to get a pandemic, an extremely rare combination of adverse circumstances is required.
The clearest example in history, when mankind was unlucky in all respects, is, of course, the famous Black Death of the XIV century, the plague epidemic that devastated entire countries and left an indelible mark on the genotype of modern people. We will tell you about the background of that pandemic, and, of course, we will try to compare distant events with the current ones.
When the sun wants to rest
At the very beginning of the XIV century, the Sun began to weaken. For the next four hundred years, the daylight was noticeably larger, dimmer, and its internal activity stopped, which could be judged by the fact that spots practically disappeared from the surface of the Sun. Only by the 18th century did the Sun begin to warm up. We do not fully understand why this is happening. On the one hand, variability in the world of stars is more the rule than the exception. Most of the stars you see in the sky are, at least slightly, variable. On the other hand, the Sun is a very stable star, and the more mysterious why it still slightly changes its activity. Some cycles have been studied (which does not mean that we understand their cause): there is an 11-year cycle, there is a 22-year cycle. But, in addition to them, the Sun sometimes "falls asleep" for centuries. And then it fries more than ever.
In 1300, feudal lords, troubadours and other medieval inhabitants would not have noticed anything. There were no telescopes yet. Spots on the Sun were seen only sometimes (through the smoke of fires, at sunset), but they did not understand what it was. But the climate immediately began to deteriorate.
The poet Dante Alighieri became the chronicler of the terrifying natural phenomena, so the powerful cataclysms that accompanied the falling asleep of the Sun are called by climatologists the "Dante period" (1309-1321). Sinners in "The Divine Comedy" suffer from hail, snow and cold rain: Dante and his contemporaries were so dumbfounded by the sudden cold snap that they could not have imagined worse executions.
The whole atmosphere was in motion. From India and Arabia they wrote about monstrous tornadoes that "picked up" garbage, frogs, lizards from the ground, and then dumped it all on frightened heads. The tornadoes were accompanied by incredible thunderstorms, and the climatic apocalypse was completed by a dry wind that burned entire areas.
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The poet Dante Alighieri became the chronicler of terrifying natural phenomena, so the powerful cataclysms that accompanied the falling asleep of the Sun are called by climatologists the "Dante period"
Something strange was going on in space. They saw a pillar of fire over the Vatican. Now over Paris - an incredibly bright star. What it was, we can only guess.
You probably think that the people of that time could not distinguish the Big Dipper from Saturn, but this is not so. Astronomers still believed that the Earth was hanging in the center of the universe, but they knew all five planets visible to the naked eye and could predict their paths, anticipated eclipses, and recorded the appearance of comets. In short, if they said that something strange was happening in the sky, this should be taken seriously.
Bad arable land, bad government
Bad weather caused the Great Famine of 1315-1317. Living standards have dropped dramatically. Hunger alone took away 10% of Europe's population. The immunity of the survivors left much to be desired. Cold rains fell on unfavorable economic ground. The fact is that Europe at that time was monstrously overpopulated. The size of its population, of course, could not be compared with the current figures, but the problem is that much more people lived in the Old World than the technological level of that time allowed.
The tornadoes were accompanied by incredible thunderstorms, and the climatic apocalypse was completed by a dry wind that burned entire areas.
The agricultural efficiency was low. In order to produce more food, it was necessary to introduce unsuitable lands into circulation. On the eve of the Great Famine, waste arable land provided a critical mass of food. The climate deteriorated - and these unusable lands instantly turned into swamps. Food supplies as cut off.
The inept actions of the authorities completed the picture. In Europe, there was only one state where they really knew how to lead - Venice. The rulers of others, in case of trouble, rushed about and fell into a mess. So, countries have banned the export of food. Because of this, England, where the fields turned into swamps, was left without bread. And what about France, which supplied this bread? And there was no one to remove it, because people who were emaciated from hunger were unable to work.
As a result, no one had bread. Inflation was galloping. In response, the authorities only figured out how to raise taxes. The reaction was popular uprisings, practically unknown before. The cities were no better. So, in England, the crisis of the pound sterling broke out: the once full-weight coin was now worth nothing. But they were not going to raise the salary. People were supposedly paid the same amount of pounds, but now they could not buy anything.
The economy of Europe, decimated by nature itself, resembled a cartoon ship that barely floats on the surface of the water. A bird sits on him and he drowns. The "bird" in our history is very unexpected. She became the emperor of the African state of Mali, whose existence many did not even hear.
Gold dust
Several years ago, American economists wondered who was the richest man in history. Rothschild? Rockefeller? Or maybe Croesus or the Roman emperors? It turned out to be Mansa Musa, Emperor of Mali.
Suddenly? This is because we look at the past through the muddy glass of history textbooks. We will study some feudal lords in France in detail, but about a huge state in Africa - silence.
A lot of gold was mined in Mali. And salt, without which the then world could not exist. There were no refrigerators, everything was salted. By some estimates, Musa possessed two-thirds of the world's gold reserves. Timbuktu, the capital of Mali, was a financial capital in the style of London. Some gold went to Europe via Italy, but mostly went to India and China via Cairo, where it was exchanged for spices and silk. We keep repeating about the "Silk Road", but we do not know that it was the Malian Empire that filled this artery with financial "blood".
In 1324, Musa decided to go public for the first time, to perform the Hajj. I really wanted to make an impression, to show the greatness of a distant empire in all its glory. And he succeeded. The emperor was accompanied by 60 thousand retinue. Each was dressed in brocade and silk. And each one carried about two kilograms of gold. Camels marched in the thick of the caravan, loaded with another 100 kilograms of gold. When this company came to the city, the people of the emperor, buying food in the market, simply poured gold dust instead of money. Alms flowed like a river.
In 1324, Musa decided to go public for the first time, to perform the Hajj.
To pray on Friday, Musa ordered to build a new mosque each time. And now they arrived in Cairo. If the capital of Mali, Timbuktu, is the then "London", then Cairo is probably New York. The second, yes that there is, the first financial capital of the world. Competitor to Timbuktu. Cairo must be put to shame. Put gold dust in his eyes. It turned out, how. Cairo beggars were barely carrying torn bags of gold bars.
This performance had the unpleasant consequence that gold prices plummeted. The market was unable to swallow that amount of the yellow metal. The golden crisis, triggered by incredible generosity, lasted for about ten years.
Many suspect that Musa deliberately wanted to bring down the power of Cairo in order to elevate Timbuktu. Did he have enough knowledge to endure such an insidious plan? Yes. If you thought that you have just witnessed "savage" luxury, this is a false impression. There was a university in Timbuktu (its building has survived to this day). Musa's predecessor, Emperor Abubakari, went to discover America but never returned. America, in the XIV century, nearly two hundred years before Columbus! In Europe, they had no idea that it even existed. By the way, it is possible that Abubakari sailed. He had two hundred ships laden - that's right, gold. What did the Spaniards find in America? A huge amount of gold.
And yet it seems that Musa just wanted to show off, and he sincerely wanted to help the poor. But one way or another, his actions made the economic crisis worldwide. Europe has not suffered much. First, she still has to suffer much more. Secondly, the economy of impoverished Europe was based on silver, and, frankly, on natural exchange. But the "golden collapse" swept along the Silk Road and affected the rich countries of the East. The stage is now ready for the plague.
The biological weapons myth
She came - and, as always, from deep Asia. Around 1320, marmots, rodents and other small animals pulled from the depths of the Gobi Desert, closer to human habitation. The reason for their migration is a sharp deterioration in the climate. They were already infected, they carried the plague in themselves from time immemorial, but before they had not encountered a person.
The first blow fell on China. In 1331, 90% of the population died in Hebei Province. Beijing suffered severely. From there, along the Silk Road, the plague spread to India and Europe. Slow at first. Then everything is faster.
In the fall of 1346, an infection affects the Golden Horde. In Crimea (the Crimean steppes were part of the Horde), 85 thousand people die. It is often said that the Horde troops used bacteriological weapons for the first time in history. They stormed the Genoese fortress of Kaffa (modern Feodosia, the fortress is perfectly preserved). The Horde were already sick with might and main. To get the Genoese, they used catapults to send the infected corpses directly to the fortress. But many historians consider this story a myth, because a chilling description was preserved in a late and not very reliable manuscript.
But the fact is that it was the Genoese ships, following from the Crimea, that brought the plague to Europe. Through Italy. They were first allowed into the port. Then they kicked out, but it was too late. Plague ships are rushing across the sea, shooting at them from the shores. Venice introduces cruel laws: if you open a store during quarantine, the store is burned. If you go out into the street, they put you in the infirmary, and there is no way out from there. Since 1347, humanity has plunged into a bloody hell, the likes of which has never been before, and, we hope, will not be after.
The plague calmed down only by burying itself in natural obstacles. To the Sahara Desert. To the Atlantic. In the ice of Greenland (the local Viking colonies died out clean and never recovered).
But is it just bad medicine to blame? In fact, the then doctors were well versed in the issue. There were two theories. One was invented by the ancient Romans: that the epidemic is caused by "tiny animals". But it is! Another is that it is carried by the "miasma" infected by the winds. And it makes sense. What to do, how to be saved, has been understood since antiquity. The point is a little different. Famine dramatically weakened the immunity of Europeans. The crisis made them unemployed and homeless. Poor people wandered in rags, slept side by side, they were gnawed by lice that carried the infection. The financial system is undermined, it is unable to finance or organize anything. Power in a stupor. All this happened before the plague. The plague just finished off Europe.
Since 1347, humanity has plunged into a bloody hell.
Global immunity
Some features of those distant events - exactly like in the current pandemic. As then, the Sun seems to go into hibernation: the star cannot start a new cycle of activity. There is clearly something wrong with the climate. In the Middle Ages there was a global cooling, now there is supposedly global warming, but, one way or another, the environment is unstable. As then, the world is entering a pandemic accompanied by an economic crisis. Only in the XIV century everything was clear and unhurried, here is the reason, here is the effect. And in 2020, cause and effect are mixed. Is the mess in the oil market from the coronavirus or not? Are the mass layoffs due to a pandemic, or is the economy just collapsing? Rather, this and that: it falls, and the pandemic pushes it.
How many "flu" there were even in the last twenty years. Pig, bird; Ebola was SARS. But they remained local stories. And in 2020, the cards went unsuccessfully, and it was bombed.
Humanity is like a single living organism. When there is weakness inside him, he gets sick. Apparently, with all our grandeur, with cosmic ambitions and self-confidence, we overlooked some serious crack within our society. And the disease is just that.
EVGENY ARSYUKHIN
