- Part 1 - Part 2 -
OH, THAT'S NOT EVENING, THAT'S NOT EVENING …
It is obvious and in fact - the global financial "Bolivar will not stand two". Real working assets are much smaller than virtual financial ones, even if we count only formally reliable ones, exclude derivatives and other rubbish. But this statement does not at all follow that one half of the global oligarchy has the ability to remove extra mouths by force. Firstly, for such a special operation in the form of a civil war, it is necessary not only to unite in advance on some basis (say, Semites against anti-Semites or vice versa), but to create a "military revolutionary committee."
The most important thing is that you will have to and already have to rely on the security forces - no matter the army or special services. However, a harsh purge would mean the transfer of too much power for a long time to a completely different political class - a revived military aristocracy or a spiritual inquisition. And why, then, these new authorities, who have to return this power back to customers from the financial oligarchy, is it not easier to squeeze the rest, if not to put them under the knife. Moreover, the history of all revolutions and civil wars proceeded exactly like this, and this is also known to potential customers.
And the most important objection: What is the point under financial capitalism, albeit at the peak of its crisis, to delete from the elite by such medieval methods, when the status of the elite is easily nullified not even by blocking accounts, but simply by lowering and zeroing the valuation of its assets. This does not require a military revolutionary headquarters, but only the provision of physical and information protection of key financial institutions such as the IMF, Goldman Sachs, audit and rating agencies. In this small volume, the power with the special services headed by the Secret Service can and should be shared, because then this association of financial institutions with financial special services will be just another arbitration branch of the financial oligarchy.
However, even for such a non-radical change in the configuration in the center of the global elite, it took 10 years, or even longer, grating and disassembly between the two main wings of financiers, accompanied by a forced sublimation of the debt pyramid to inconceivable peaks. Nevertheless, the slowed-down approach of the Great Northern Beast of Pizzeci helped these graters and disassembly to be completed in favor of the created arbitration. Although it greatly weakened the influence of globalists around the world, it did not abolish the need to maintain world trade, and therefore global financial institutions. It is another matter that the mode of operation of these global institutions is now only subordinate to this - maintaining controlled relative stability in the common interests of the poles being formed, otherwise these global regions can do without them in case of force majeure. And only by acting in this stabilizing regime, the former unipolar, and now again simply the North Atlantic elites can afford to throw one or another directly dependent comprador off the train.
How the dependent comprador elites are actually reset to zero has been clearly shown by the example of ukrooligarchs. It is clear for all elites in the world that in the Forbes ratings, opposite the names of the Akhmetovs, Pinchuk, Firtash, Poroshenok, Kolomoisky should be a long-term score of zero. However, the peculiarity of the moment is that it is politically impractical to make honest assessments. Firstly, you cannot create a wave of panic in other dependent territories and the global financial market. Therefore, capital estimates will decline gradually as you get used to the situation. Secondly, the Kiev regime could still serve as an instrument of threat for the European elites, and in the context of export to Europe - for the Russian ones as well. Therefore, a fictitious valuation of capital is needed, among other things, as a tool for managing the Kiev and similar "elite".
It is clear that in the same way Naglo-Saxon appraisers cannot give an honest assessment of the real capitalization of Russian export companies, which cover the fair capitalization of any other companies like a bull in any scenario of a controlled, let alone uncontrolled descent from the debt pyramid. If all product markets are shrinking, the energy market will still shrink more slowly due to the inertia of consumption. At the same time, at any absolute price levels, the relative value of energy exports in relation to imports of goods will still grow.
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In addition to the Russian "pole", the Middle East pole is in the same conditionally advantageous position. However, it is for this reason and because of its internal weakness and contradictions that the globalists started the global hybrid war precisely from the Arab Spring. However, it was the “Russian pole” that managed to take advantage of the weakening of the “Arab pole” in order to take potential dumping competitors under guardianship and protection. So the real assessment of the capitalization of Middle Eastern companies and countries will now depend on the degree of their cooperation with Russia (plus) and the West (towards uncertainty, that is, minus if there is a Russian plus).
In all other cases of the European, Chinese and other "poles" more dependent on the state of world trade, not only a formal, but also an honest assessment of long-term capitalization strongly depends on the degree of influence of the former main, but now only "conditionally unipolar" elites and financial institutions. The condition, I repeat, is to work to maintain stability and manage the deflation of the global dollar bubble. Because the only alternative would be a sharp zeroing of almost all capital with the loss of the Western "poles" in the Middle Ages, the war of all against all, where hordes of hungry migrants win with a guarantee. However, it is this clear threat, which all Western elites are well aware of, and is the guarantee of controllability of both the elite and society.
If one of the elites of all countries decides to play their game against the rules of the new "post-Washington consensus", to reset its ratings or close the markets with sanctions, it will be a matter of one snap of financial control fingers. Well, and one more tweet from the president, who was conditionally released from criminal impeachment, who also cannot do anything against the common interest of the global elites. However, even the most loyal and servile of banksters, oligarchs and compradors cannot be sure of their fate. First, no one knows what is around the bend in the new political and economic reality - which technologies, products and assets will be in demand, and which ones will be unnecessary in the world market, will be imported at all “poles” or banned as subversive? Here, let's sayWhy in the future sovereign "poles" electronic appliances with bookmarks or global social networks with spying on all gadgets? So the long-term assessment for Apple and other global consumer goods in this area can be safely reset to zero. The Chinese Huawei has similar problems with its 5G technologies, which make it possible to do without permanent communication nodes, which means - to bypass financial control, that is, the global power of the transition period. So one snap of Bolton's fingers and Trump's confirming tweet - and capital appreciation goes sharply south.and therefore - to bypass financial control, that is, the global power of the transition period. So one snap of Bolton's fingers and Trump's confirming tweet - and capital appreciation goes sharply south.and therefore - to bypass financial control, that is, the global power of the transition period. So one snap of Bolton's fingers and Trump's confirming tweet - and capital appreciation goes sharply south.
But there are also opposite examples of guaranteed capitalization, when energy-intensive "canned food" (aluminum semi-finished products) can serve as liquidity reserves for a long time. In this case, everything depends on the ability of the owners of such an asset to protect them from expropriation by stronger players, and for this, one way or another, it is necessary to rely on a balance of interests - financial and power, capable of providing access to raw materials and sales markets. If there was such a balance, but it has exhausted itself, then you still have to share and redistribute in accordance with the new balance. As it already happened with Rusal, where the share of the previously influential Yeltsin family has decreased, and is likely to decrease. It turns out that the conditionally unipolar center imposed sanctions against the conditionally Russian company in order to return it from offshore jurisdiction,transfer shares unconditionally to a Russian state bank and a friendly Swiss intermediary.
Global elites, billionaires can, of course, choose the risky strategy of solely owning large international assets. In the worst case, these assets will be zeroed out due to the gradual disintegration of the global market into import-substituted “poles”. In the best case, the technology and the asset will be in demand by everyone, but then it will be necessary to share with all the guarantors and more than once. Isn't it easier to immediately guarantee a more modest but more reliable future by sharing technologies with the “polar” elites of future sales markets and with the main guarantors of the world market? It is better to be a multimillionaire at the end of the transition period than a billionaire only at the beginning and in dreams.
Therefore, bringing the “weight”, that is, the assessment of the capital of the co-owners of the “financial bolivar” to its fair carrying capacity in the form of the future share of real markets, will take place slowly, in stages. Western financial institutions, as far as they can, will overestimate and postpone the time of updating such estimates. The owners themselves will either drop out of the race for excessive self-confidence, or still share with each other, exchange risks and thereby reduce them. But all this will take place in a purely cold and hybrid mode of mutual competition and a race for survival in the densest fog of uncertainty, where and whom the curve will take. And no hot wars and real revolutions, only threats and imitations, otherwise everyone will lose at once.
Thus, both the former global elites of the West, and the former comprador elites of the East, and the Russian nouveau riche trying to join the ranks of the Western elites - all at once and suddenly found themselves in a completely new situation. Instead of exporting capital invested in Western "securities", the bubble of elite real estate and offshore accounts, now you will have to seriously, and not pretend, think about putting things in order in your state and the formation of an internal market. Because investments abroad, as well as the sales markets linked to them, can only be guaranteed by bilateral agreements of a strong state. And counter investment at home is also a strong state in accordance with a healthy socially conservative attitude of society. At the same time, the powers of the East with preserved healthy conservatism turn out to be more reliable and promising partners,than the once advanced countries of the West, decomposed under the liberals. In general, in this respect, too, everything has mixed and turned from head to foot, increasing the headache of the elites and thickening the general fog.
In general, I had to once again repeat and explain the most general results of not only the year, but the unipolar quarter of a century, before moving on to a brief overview of individual "poles".
Continued: Part 4