The El Niño climatic phenomenon affects the geography of cholera in Africa. It is necessary to predict the expansion of the "cholera corridor" so that officials and doctors correctly coordinate efforts to save people.
El Niño is formed in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean and affects the weather around the planet. So, in East Africa, due to the phenomenon, it becomes rainy, and in North and South Africa it is drier. Researchers from the United States, France and Switzerland studied 17,000 cases of cholera infection in 3,000 locations across the African continent in 2000-2014. Scientists are confident that there is a connection between the change in rainfall in East and South Africa due to El Niño and the extent of the disease.
Although the total number of infections in Africa was the same in any phase of El Niño, the geographical distribution of cases depended on the activity of the weather phenomenon.
For example, at the time of El Niño activity in South Africa, 30,000 fewer cases of cholera infection were recorded than during the “dormant” phase of the climate phenomenon. In East Africa, on the contrary, the development of El Niño caused a jump in the disease - 48 thousand more patients were diagnosed than usual. The region where El Niño is causing an increase in cholera infections is home to 177 million people.
Cholera bacteria live in water and enter the human body with it. El Niño rainstorms overwhelm sewer systems and sewage contaminates drinking water. In areas of Africa where the weather phenomenon provokes drought, clean water becomes inaccessible, and the population begins to drink water from any source, including polluted ones.
El Niño development and, therefore, the cholera epidemic can be predicted in 6-12 months. If you prepare for the increase in the number of cases and provide them with the right treatment, you can reduce the number of deaths to zero. The death rate from cholera in Africa reaches 30%.
In 2015, more than 170 thousand cases of cholera infection were diagnosed worldwide. In Africa, 40% of those infected lived.