An international group of scientists from the United States and Germany has identified the most likely scenarios for the development of humanity and alien civilizations, most of which end in collapse. The researchers took into account the influence of intelligent beings on the climate of their own planet and how this impact could turn out for aliens. The article was published in the journal Astrobiology. This was announced in a press release on Phys.org.
Experts have developed a mathematical model that takes into account population size, climate change and the capacity of the environment - the optimal number of individuals that can be provided with food and other benefits without compromising its continued existence. The model is based on the results of studies of the Rapanui civilization on Easter Island, which reached its peak in 1200-1500 AD, and its decline occurred by the 18th century due to the depletion of resources. It turned out that the development of any civilization can follow one of four paths.
In the “extinction” scenario, the world's population grows rapidly along with the average temperature. Ultimately, a technological civilization reaches its peak, but then it begins to decline, since the climate turns out to be unsuitable for the existence of a large number of creatures. At some point, the system will return to equilibrium, but only a small fraction of the population will survive. In the second scenario, which is the only positive one, sustainable development takes place without catastrophic consequences, which is possible only if civilization realizes in time that the thoughtless consumption of resources will destroy it itself.
The third option provides for the development and sharp decline in the population without depleting resources. Civilization is dying, but this does not necessarily lead to the complete disappearance of intelligent beings. In the latter scenario, the aliens realize that their actions can lead to disaster, but the transition to alternative fuels is too late and unable to prevent death.
According to scientists, it is not yet clear which scenario is more likely for humanity. However, researchers admit that humans can change the Earth's climate to such an extent that stopping greenhouse gas emissions will no longer improve the situation.
According to scientists, if the Earth's climate warms by two degrees, unpredictable changes in the atmospheric circulation system will begin. Intense melting of glaciers will occur, which will lead, in turn, to a rise in sea levels. It is estimated that by 2100, coastal megacities will be flooded, and some inhabited islands, including the Maldives, will disappear.