German scientists have concluded that general warming in the northern hemisphere could lead to extremely cold winters in Europe and northern Asia
The authors of the study believe that the anomalous reduction in ice area in winter in the Barents and Kara Seas, caused by an increase in surface air temperature, leads to periods of extreme cold, similar to winter 2005-2006.
“This anomaly could triple the likelihood of severe winter colds. Recent severe winters, such as last winter or 2005-2006, do not contradict the picture of global warming, but rather complement it,”says one of the researchers, Vladimir Petukhov.
In the course of the study, scientists developed a computer model of the general circulation of the atmosphere ECHAM5, they observed the reaction of the model, gradually reducing the ice area from 100% of the water surface to 1%.
Calculations have shown that the shrinking ice surface creates windows of free water that release heat and water vapor into the normally dry and cold Arctic air.
This, in turn, can lead to a decrease in the average temperature on the mainland by one and a half degrees.
“Modeling has shown that wind and air temperature react non-linearly to changes in ice cover. As the ice area shrinks, winters can become warmer, colder, and then warmer again,”Petukhov notes.
Scientists have found that abrupt transitions between different modes of atmospheric circulation in the circumpolar and polar regimes are very likely.
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According to scientists, attempts to explain extremely cold winters by a decrease in solar activity or a weakening of the Gulf Stream exaggerate the influence of these effects, while the ice area is much more significant.
In particular, in the winter of 2005-2006, when temperatures in Siberia were 10 degrees below normal, no anomalies were recorded in the Atlantic currents. However, changes in ocean circulation can affect the ice area, which in turn can weaken or amplify the temperature anomaly.
Petukhov notes that his research does not concern weather forecasts for the near future.
Let us remind you that earlier ecologists predicted a general rise in temperature and an increase in natural disasters in Ukraine due to global climate change on the planet.