Calculations have shown that the cancellation of the Paris Agreement will lead to a rapid rise in global temperatures. The upper limit of warming, outlined by UN experts, will be overcome by 2026.
The Paris Climate Agreement adopted by the UN countries in 2015 aims to keep the temperature rise below 2 ° C relative to pre-industrial levels, and ideally within 1.5 ° C. However, it is now becoming clear that to achieve this goal we will have to work very, very hard: in an article published in Geophysical Research Letters, scientists report that the 1.5 ° C threshold can be crossed in less than a decade - by 2026.
Scientists at the University of Melbourne Benjamin Henley and Andrew King used the latest climate models to assess possible scenarios for the near future, in the event that the Paris Agreement did not exist or, as some "skeptics" promise, it really will. canceled. The work of climatologists has shown that in these conditions, the warming of the planet will rapidly accelerate.
Hinley and King note that the continuing rise in greenhouse gas emissions (primarily carbon dioxide and methane) in the coming years will be superimposed on the dynamics of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) of the Pacific surface temperature. These fluctuations have a global impact on the climate, and if in previous years IPOs went to a minimum, now this phase is over, the temperature has begun to rise and will continue in the next couple of decades. As a result, the coveted level of 1.5 ° С can be taken already in 2024–2029.
It should be noted that the implementation of the points of the Paris Agreement is not very successful. Since its ratification, new laws (14) and new restrictive measures (33) have been adopted worldwide. The new US president is threatening to withdraw from the agreement, according to which the country has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 by almost a third. The US accounts for about 15 percent of global emissions, but the implications of America's withdrawal from the treaty will be much wider. If this really happens, then the development of events can easily follow the scenario calculated by Hinley and King.
Sergey Vasiliev