Much of Russian Siberia is covered with permafrost, making construction and agriculture virtually impossible. However, according to American and Russian scientists, the inevitable increase in temperature and precipitation by 2080 will make conditions in the Asian part of Russia more comfortable. And climate migrants will begin to flock there.
We all know that Russia is huge. This country is almost twice the size of Canada, and its area is approximately equal to the surface area of Pluto. It is inhabited very modestly: the share of one inhabitant of Russia has four times more territory than the share of an American.
But the huge region of Siberia stands out even by Russian standards. Siberia occupies 77% of the territory of Russia, and only 27% of the country's population lives there - 39 million people. The main reason is the climate. Most of Siberia is covered with permafrost, which makes construction and agriculture almost impossible. There is also little precipitation there, which does not make life easier for the settlers.
The situation may improve somewhat for an unexpected reason - due to climate change. According to scientists from the NASA Langley Research Center and the Krasnoyarsk Research Center, the inevitable increase in temperature and precipitation by 2080 will make the conditions for human settlements in the Asian part of Russia more comfortable. The harsh climate is predicted to become milder and more favorable. Thanks to this, Siberia will probably become nine times more convenient place for human life, and climate migrants will begin to flock there.
During their research, the scientists considered two different warming scenarios. By the 2080s, under a less dramatic scenario, average January temperatures in Siberia will increase by either 3.4 degrees Celsius or 9.1 degrees, with sharper changes. July temperatures will rise to a much lesser extent: 1.9 degrees or 5.7 degrees. Average annual precipitation will increase by 60 mm in the first scenario and 140 mm in the second.
In any case, the Siberian climate will become much warmer and milder by 2080. The permafrost zone will move significantly to the northeast. Living conditions in the Asian part of Russia will improve from three to nine times compared to today.
In warmer climates, the permafrost will melt, increasing the agricultural potential of northern Siberia. Although, of course, everything is not so rosy. Lack of fertile soil can limit agriculture in the region, regardless of climate warming. In addition, in the process of thawing permafrost, problems can arise, such as the destruction of important infrastructure and houses. Infrastructure in the Russian Arctic is already suffering from the degradation of permafrost.
According to another recent study, due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall in Russia is increasing by 1-2% per decade. Winters in Western Siberia have become colder because anticyclones block the flow of warm, moist air from the southern borders of the region. The Siberian fauna has already experienced the harsh effects of climate change. For example, scientists have found that Arctic waders are suffering from an increase in the number of predators nesting in their area, which generally reflects climate-related changes in the relationship between predators and prey.
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The increase in migration due to ongoing climate change is likely to be offset by a decline in fertility. The population of Russia by 2050 will decrease from 143.9 million to 132.7 million, according to the UN. Climate migration may be the only way for Russia to make up for these losses.
Elia Kabanov