Not long ago, in an interview at the Code Conference in California, entrepreneur and tech darling Elon Musk suggested that we all live in a computer simulation. At first glance, his statement may seem like a madman's ravings. On closer inspection, it turns out that everything is much deeper. Let's dive even deeper and try to find the flaws in virtual reality theory, so to speak.
As the founder of a number of large companies like Tesla and SpaceX, Musk's interests are deeply rooted in cutting-edge technology. Its main idea is that over the past 40 years, computer games have developed so rapidly that in a couple of years they will be completely indistinguishable from the physical world. In other words, we are on the verge of merging augmented reality (AR) with artificial intelligence. The end result is that the real and the virtual can become completely indistinguishable from one another. According to him:
“If we assume that improvements will occur at least at some speed, then games will become indistinguishable from reality, even if the speed of improvements drops a thousand times from what it is now. And then just tell yourself: okay, let's imagine what will happen in 10,000 years in the future, a moment by the standards of evolution."
Therefore, if we assume that we are on a trajectory where games will gradually become indistinguishable from reality, and these games can be played on any computer or console, and there will be billions of such consoles, the chances that we are in one of such realities, grow.
The idea that people live in a reality controlled by external bodies, computers or whatever has been put forward a long time ago. This question has been explored by philosophers and even physicians for centuries. Philosopher Nick Bostrom reached the same conclusion in 2003.
The similarities between the arguments put forward by Musk and Bostrom go beyond the assumption that we are all living in a giant computer simulation. Both of them believe that the development of artificial intelligence is a dangerous field. According to Musk, progress in AI research and development will result in the end of civilization. Bostrom has a similar point of view and says that it will be dangerous to develop AI projects without an appropriate risk assessment.
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Fact or Fiction?
But what if it's just paranoia? These claims are clearly not based on the ideas of films like "The Matrix" and "A Space Odyssey 2001", but something big and deep. What reasons do Musk and Bostrom have?
The view that we are not living in a simulation is strongly supported by the resource arguments. Imagine how much processing power is needed to support such a simulation. The modeling system must be able to support all the entities of the world and all their interactions. It will take an enormous amount of computation. Further arguments can be found in quantum mechanics: to run a truly realistic model of a city, with its trillions of interactions, would require a city-sized computer. All this leads to the fact that our life in simulation is extremely unlikely.
Even if there were a machine that could model our existence, the likelihood is high that we would be faced with "flaws in realism." These errors in the model could be seen or heard. For example, stars could disappear when viewed through telescopes of various magnifications. Such errors would be inevitable when simulating at this scale, but people have never observed them.
Machines using self-learning, superintelligent software are still far from the state of the art, and systems using AI are working in very specific and very narrow areas. Modern systems learn to optimize their performance in specific areas of work - but not around the world.
Neural networks, for example, sometimes referred to as electronic brain models, are used to predict changes in stock markets. These systems can be trained using available data from stock trading to learn and identify patterns in live data streams that may indicate certain events. This allows traders to react appropriately to mitigate the negative impact.
Similarly, there are systems that are designed using AI techniques to ease workloads by applying programmed rules. These are known as knowledge-based systems. And if people do not always understand in such cases that they interact with a machine, these machines are also designed to work in specific areas or with specific problems.
Given the limited areas in which AI systems are developed, it is difficult to talk about the end of human civilization, since the likelihood of superintelligent AI emerging is very small.
alternative reality
However, there is something else in Musk's ideas that may well happen in the near future.
For example, the development of technologies that contribute to the emergence and development of neurocomputer interfaces. As our daily life becomes more dependent on connected devices, the way we use them is changing. Our desire for data access and communication is at the heart of the development of wearable technology.
Musk claims that we will become pets for AI, but says nothing about developing effective brain-computer interfaces. But Steve Mann, the father of wearable technology and augmented reality, says that combining both technologies will benefit society. This will be especially useful for auxiliary medical systems. One area of research is in the creation of brain implants that send electrical signals to the brain and stimulate movement of paralyzed limbs.
The theme of existence in a computer simulation is amazing, because it makes you think about the very foundations of our being with you. But it's impossible to prove it, so let's at least benefit from this kind of thinking.
The future development of augmented reality and related technologies will lead us into a world that will be closely interconnected. In this augmented reality, we will have continuous access to data and digital representations in the physical world. AI technologies will help us understand this data. It is augmented, not virtual reality that awaits us in the future. And artificial intelligence should help us, not hinder us.
ILYA KHEL