In our time, when the shelf life of modern civilization expires, more and more scientists are turning their attention to the decline and death of civilizations of the past. Their research has spawned competing explanations for why societies collapse and civilizations die. Meanwhile, a lucrative market for post-apocalyptic novels, films, TV shows and video games has emerged for those who, sitting on their cozy couches, enjoy the thrill of dark, futuristic disaster and chaos. Survival in real life will undoubtedly follow a completely different scenario.
[1]. As our civilization approaches collapse, its enthusiastic audience finds solace in lectures and books filled with self-collected evidence that life is now better than ever, and will undoubtedly get better. Nevertheless, when asked uncomfortable questions, Pinker himself admits: “It is wrong to extrapolate the fact that we have made progress, is a guarantee that this process will continue for a long time.” [2]
Pinker's rainbow statistics cleverly disguises a fatal flaw in his argument. The progress of the past was built by sacrificing the future, our future. All the fortunate facts he cites regarding living standards, life expectancy and economic growth are the product of an industrial civilization that plundered and polluted the planet in order to provide temporary progress for the growing middle class, as well as huge profits and power for the tiny oligarchic elite.
[3]
But Greer's speculation is built on shaky ground, because there are four major differences between industrial civilization and all past civilizations. And each of them can accelerate the coming collapse, while increasing the difficulty of recovery.
[4] Our complex, powerful, high-speed civilization owes its short lifespan to this single but rapidly depleting energy treasure of nature.
Difference # 2: Unlike past civilizations, the economy of an industrial society is capitalist. Industrial production for profit is its main directive and driving force. The unprecedented surplus energy supplied by fossil fuels has generated exceptional economic growth and huge profits over the past two centuries. But in the coming decades, this surplus of energy, continued economic growth and profit growth will disappear.
However, if it is not abolished, capitalism will not disappear when the economic boom turns into a collapse. Capitalism, deprived of cheap energy sources and losing its growth prospects, will become catabolic. Catabolism is a condition in which a living organism devours itself. When lucrative sources of production run out, capitalism will be forced to make a profit by consuming the social assets it once created. The pursuit of profit will precipitate a catastrophic decline in industrial civilization.
Promotional video:
[five]
Difference # 3: Unlike past civilizations, industrial civilizations are not Roman, Chinese, Egyptian, Aztec, or Mayan. Modern civilization is HUMAN, PLANETARY and ECOCIDAL. Pre-industrial civilizations depleted the topsoil, deforested and polluted rivers. But the harm was much more temporary and geographically limited. When market incentives led to the use of the enormous potential of fossil fuels for the exploitation of nature, the destruction of the biosphere took on a planetary character. Two centuries of burning fossil fuels have filled the atmosphere with climate-changing carbon dioxide that will continue to destroy our planet in the future. Damage to the Earth's ecosystems - circulation and chemical composition of the atmosphere and ocean; stability of hydrological and biogeochemical cycles;the biodiversity of the entire planet is essentially a constant phenomenon in the way we extract and use our oil, coal and gas reserves.
[6] Scientists believe that by the end of the century, half of all remaining species will be gone. [7] There are no more pristine ecosystems where humans can escape the damage they have done and rebuild civilization after its collapse.
Difference # 4: The collective ability of human civilization to withstand growing crises is limited by the fragmented political system of warring nations, ruled by corrupt elites who care more about their own power and wealth than people and the planet. Humanity is facing the perfect storm of simultaneous global disasters. Interconnected disasters such as climate chaos, rapid wildlife extinction, food and fresh water shortages, poverty, extreme inequality and the rise of global pandemics are rapidly eroding the foundations of modern life.
However, this capricious and fragmented political system makes it nearly impossible to organize and carry out joint action to save the planet. And the more catabolic industrial capitalism becomes, the greater the danger that rulers hostile to the people and the planet will fan the flames of nationalism and start wars over limited resources. Of course, war is not new. But modern warfare is so destructive and toxic that little is left after it. It will be the last nail in the coffin of our civilization.
Rise from the ruins?
How people react to the collapse of industrial civilization will determine how severe the consequences will be for our planet and what will replace our civilization. These problems are fundamental. They will cause us to question our identity, our values and our worldview. Who are we? Are we, first of all, people trying to raise their children, strengthen our society and coexist with other inhabitants of the Earth? Or do our core values relate to the area of our nation, our culture, our race, our ideology, or our religion? Can we prioritize the survival of our species and our planet, or will we allow ourselves to be divided along ethnic, cultural, racial, religious, or party lines?
The possible result of the coming collapse of our civilization is still unclear to anyone. Will we overcome denial and despair? Will we get rid of oil? Will we band together to break the backbone of corporate power? Can we solidify true democracy, harness renewable energy, rebuild our societies, re-learn forgotten skills and heal the wounds we have inflicted on the earth? Or will fear and prejudice drive us into hostile camps fighting for the depleting resources of a degraded planet? The stakes are now higher than ever.
Links to used materials:
[1] His books include: "The Best Angels of Our Nature and Enlightenment: Arguments for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress."
[2] King, Darrin. Stephen Pinker on the Past, Present and Future of Optimism (OneZero, January 10, 2019) https://onezero.medium.com/steven-pinker-on-the-past-present-and-future-of-optimism- f362398c604b
[3] Greer, John Michael. "Slow Decline" (Publishing House "New Society", 2008): p. 29.
[4] Heinberg, Richard. End of growth. (New Society, 2011): p. 117.
[5] For more on catabolic capitalism see: Collins, Craig. “Catabolism: The Terrifying Future of Capitalism,” CounterPunch (November 1, 2018).
[6] Carrington, Damian. New Study: Humans are only 0.01% of all life, but they killed 83% of wild mammals - The Guardian (May 21, 2018).
[7] Ceballos, Ehrlich, Barnoski, Garcia, Pringle and Palmer. Accelerated Losses of Modern Species: Beginning of Mass Extinction, Science Advances. (June 19, 2015)
Craig Collins, Ph. D., is the author of Toxic Loopholes (Cambridge University Press), which examines America's dysfunctional environmental management system. He teaches political science and environmental law at California State University's East Bay and is a founding member of the California Greens.
By Craig Collins