One of the most famous newspapers in the world - French Le Monde - publishes an open letter from a group of scientists alarmed by the explosive population growth on Earth. They have no doubt that this is the biggest challenge that needs to be addressed collectively over the next 20 years. Slowing down population growth is necessary to save the planet from impending disaster.
To combat climate warming, it is necessary to slow down demographic growth.
Over the past few weeks, after the resignation of Nicolas Hulot (Nicolas Hulot, was the Minister of Comprehensive Environmental Transformations, resigned at the end of August 2018 - ed.), More and more alarming manifestos and articles have appeared in the newspapers, which urge the state authorities to immediately take active environmental measures: reduce the consumption of polluting energy sources and the amount of waste, improve the environmental friendliness of production, etc.
Be that as it may, we are surprised to note that demographic growth did not fall among these requirements, as if demography and the environment are isolated from each other, when in fact there is an inextricable link between them.
Measures to improve the environmental performance of developed countries remain a priority task in the short term, while in the more distant future the combined effect of population growth and the inevitable increase in consumption per capita (in developed and especially developing countries) will turn into a real disaster for the planet. We are talking about the destruction of biological diversity, the threat to water resources, sea level rise as a result of melting ice, depletion of fish and land resources, warming by 5 ° C in France by 2100 with temperature peaks of more than 50 ° C, mass immigration.
To avoid a catastrophe, it will be necessary (especially for developed countries) to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions: an energy transition is needed. Be that as it may, we cannot put up with the stalemate in terms of a significant reduction in world population growth: this is a demographic transition that is not completed in most regions of the world.
11.2 billion people in 2100?
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The world's population has already grown exponentially: from 2 billion to 7.6 billion from 1950 to 2017! According to the latest UN demographic projections (2017), the world's population will reach 8.6 billion by 2030, 9.8 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100 (and this is still an average hypothesis). It is worth noting that the numbers of these forecasts are only growing: in 2010, the UN spoke about 10.1 billion inhabitants by 2100 … This trend applies to all continents, but Africa will account for just over 50% of growth by 2050 and over 85% by 2100 year (under this scenario, Africa's population will be 4.3 billion by 2100).
At the 2017 climate conference in Bonn, 15,000 scientists from around the world issued an emergency appeal on the planet's suitability for life. In particular, it contains recommendations for a significant reduction in the birth rate. This applies to several regions of the world, but we propose to consider the example of Africa due to its cultural proximity to France, as well as because of an important event that happened there, to which we propose to respond positively.
This is a conference that took place in July last year in Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso) and ended with the development of a charter on this issue by the speakers of the parliaments of 15 ECOWAS countries (Economic Community of West African Countries), Chad and Mauritania. They recognize that too high a population growth is a hindrance to the development of their economies, and have pledged to work towards reducing the birth rate to three children per woman by 2030.
They proceed from the fact that women should decide for themselves how much, when and with whom they will have children. However, they must be educated and have access to a wide range of contraceptives. It is supposed to broadcast audio messages to communities in different dialects, in particular, using mobile phones.
All this is possible. Some countries, such as Ethiopia, have allocated the necessary funds and achieved impressive results.
Use of financing under the Paris Agreements
All this is not cheap, but it can be financed within the already defined budgets, without additional obligations. The signatories of this appeal call on France and Europe to help these courageous states implement their fertility reduction program. As part of the agreements signed in Paris in 2015, rich countries pledged to give less wealthy countries $ 100 billion a year to combat climate warming.
Since demographics have a clear influence on carbon dioxide and climate, it would be perfectly justified to allocate a substantial portion of this aid to “reproductive health,” as contraception and family planning are otherwise known. Such a policy would improve the well-being and quality of life of women, who are most often the first victims of the current state of affairs.
In addition, everything must be done to promote the economic development of poor regions with high fertility, as this is the best way to change the behavior of women (in particular through education) and reduce the number of their children.
This is, without a doubt, the biggest challenge that we will collectively face over the next 20 years. Slowing down population growth is an absolute must if we want to save our planet from impending disaster. Because we don't have a spare planet.
List of signers:
Jean-Claude André, member of the Academy of Sciences
Jacques Bentz, President of the Teknet PartyPation
Jean-Loup Bertaux, planetary scientist
Albert Bijaoui, astrophysicist
Jacques Blamont, Advisor to the President of the National Center for Space Research
Philippe Blime, head of the company
Christian Bordé, physicist
Roger-Maurice Bonnet, former director of the European Space Agency
Guy Brasseur, Director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA)
Marie-Lise Chanin, member of the Academy of Sciences
Bruno David, Director of the National Museum of Natural History
Bernard Esambert, President of the Georges Pompidou Institute
François Forget, planetary scientist
Alain Hauchecorne, Member of the Academy of Air and Space
Georges Jobert, Professor Emeritus of the Pierre and Marie Curie Institute
Rosine Lallement, Member of the US and Russian Academy of Sciences
Serge Michaïlof, Fellow, Institute for International and Strategic Studies
Michel Pébereau, Member of the Academy of Moral and Political Sciences
Jean-Claude Pecker, astrophysicist
Philippe Waldteufel, Senior Research Fellow, National Center for Scientific Research