Over the past 500 years, European nations - Portugal, the Netherlands, Spain, Britain, France and, in short, Germany - have been able to plunder most of the planet by projecting their naval power overseas. Since a large part of the world's population lives along the coast, and most of it trades over water, armed ships that suddenly arrived from nowhere were able to put the local population at their mercy.
Armadas could plunder, impose tribute, punish the naughty, and then use that plunder and tribute to build more ships, expanding the scope of their naval empires. This allowed a small region with few natural resources and few natural advantages beyond extreme militancy and bloodthirstiness, as well as many infectious diseases that dominated the globe for half a century.
The ultimate heir to this naval imperial project is the United States, which, with the addition of an air force and its large aircraft carrier and vast network of military bases around the planet, is supposedly able to impose Pax Americana throughout the world. Or rather, it was able to do so during the short period between the collapse of the USSR and the emergence of Russia and China as new world powers and their development of new anti-aircraft missiles and anti-aircraft technologies. But now this imperial project is coming to an end.
Before the collapse of the USSR, the US military did not dare to directly threaten those countries to which the USSR extended its protection. However, using her naval power to dominate the sea lanes carrying crude oil and insisting that oil be traded in US dollars, she could live outside by issuing dollar-denominated debt instruments and forcing countries all over the world. the world to invest in them. He imported whatever he wanted, using borrowed money, exporting inflation, expropriating people's savings all over the world. In this process, the US has accumulated quite staggering levels of government debt - except for what has previously been seen in neither absolute nor relative terms. When this debt bomb finally explodes, it will spread economic disaster far beyond the United States. And it will explode
New missile technology made the naval empire cheap to defeat. Previously, in order to fight a naval battle, it was necessary to have ships superior in speed and artillery to the enemy's forces. The Spanish armada was sunk by the British armada. More recently, this meant that only countries whose industry could rival the United States could ever dream of confronting it militarily. But now that has changed: Russia's new missiles can be launched from thousands of kilometers, they cannot be stopped, and it only takes one to sink a destroyer and only two to sink an aircraft carrier. Now the American armada can be sunk without its own armada. The relative sizes of American and Russian economies or defense budgets do not matter:
Equally significant is the development of new Russian air defense capabilities: the S-300 and S-400 systems, which can significantly delay the country's airspace. Where these systems are deployed, such as in Syria, US forces are forced to remain outside their limits. As its naval and air superiority quickly evaporates, all the US can retreat militarily is the use of a large expeditionary force - an option that is politically unpleasant and has proven ineffective in Iraq and Afghanistan. There is also a nuclear option, and while the US nuclear arsenal is unlikely to be neutralized anytime soon, nuclear weapons are useful only as deterrents. Their particular value lies in preventing the escalation of war beyond a certain point,but this moment lies beyond the elimination of US global military and air dominance. Nuclear weapons are far worse than useless in increasing aggressive behavior against a nuclear adversary; invariably, that would be a suicidal move. What the US is now facing is essentially the financial problem of outstanding debt and a failed wealth pump, and it should be the overwhelmingly obvious point that turning off nuclear explosions anywhere in the world would not solve the empire's problems.and it must be the overwhelming obvious point that turning off nuclear explosions anywhere in the world could not solve the empire's problems.and it must be the overwhelming obvious point that turning off nuclear explosions anywhere in the world could not solve the empire's problems.
Events that signal huge, epochal changes in the world are often insignificant when viewed in isolation. Julius Caesar's crossing of the Rubicon was just one river crossing; The meeting of Soviet and American troops and the brotherhood on the Elbe was, relatively speaking, a secondary event - nowhere was the scale of the blockade of Leningrad, the battle of Stalingrad or the fall of Berlin. Nevertheless, they signaled a tectonic shift in the historical landscape. And we may have just witnessed something similar with the recent touching tiny battle in East Ghouta in Syria, where the US used a dodgy chemical explosion as an excuse to launch an equivalent attack on some airfields and buildings in Syria. The American Foreign Office wanted to showthat it still matters and must play a role, Of course, this is all terrible news for the US military and foreign policy institutions, as well as for many US congressmen in whose areas there are military contractors or military bases. Obviously, this is also bad news for defense contractors, personnel at military bases, and many others. This is also just terrible news economically, as defense spending is the only effective economic stimulus that the US government is policy. “If you remember that Obama's shovel workers did nothing to prevent a sharp decline in labor participation, which is a euphemism for the inverse of the real unemployment rate. There is also a wonderful plan to throw a lot of money into SpaceX Elon Musk (by continuing to buy vital rocket motors from the Russians,who are currently discussing blocking their exports to the US in response to more US sanctions). In short, take away the protective stimulus and the US economy will produce a loud sound accompanied by a fading hiss.
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Needless to say, everyone involved will do their best to deny or hide the fact that American foreign policy and defense institutions are now neutralized for as long as possible. My prediction is that America's naval and air empire will not fail because it will be defeated militarily and will not be dismantled after the news goes down because it is useless; instead, he will be forced to cut back on his operations due to lack of funds. There might still be a few loud bangs before he surrenders, but basically what we'll hear is a lot of whimpering. This is how the USSR went; the United States does the same.