October 1917 was an epoch-making turning point in the history of Russia. In the opinion of some, this was an unnatural scenario for the development of events, others call it a natural result of the degradation of power. But what could our country have become without a coup d'etat?
If it weren't for …
Nobel laureate in literature Alexander Solzhenitsyn wrote: “October is a short, rough, local military coup according to plan. Our revolution roamed from month to month in 1917 - quite spontaneously, and then by civil war and millions of Chekist terror."
Some researchers suggest that if it was possible to stop the unrestrained elements of the revolution in time, then not only the empire would be preserved, but all its cultural and religious features, as well as economic achievements. There would be no shameful "Brest Peace", signed by the Bolsheviks, and our country would have become one of the victorious states with all the ensuing geopolitical gains.
Another part of the experts is convinced that the Bolsheviks were the only force capable of stopping the country rolling into the abyss. The civil war, strife, terror and devastation that followed the revolution were a necessary sacrifice to achieve the cherished goal - building a social state of universal equality and justice. The preservation of the previous government, in their opinion, would inevitably lead to the disintegration of the country.
Geopolitics
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Until the October Revolution, the situation on the fronts of the First World War, albeit difficult, but still giving hope for a turning point. Yes, in the Russian army, few wanted to fight, but the forces of the German troops were exhausted. If it was possible to suppress the propaganda work of the left, due to which there was a high percentage of desertions, by the fall of 1917 the Russian army could resume the offensive and by the end of the year, together with the allies, force Germany, agonizing in revolutionary convulsions, to surrender.
Thanks to the victory, Russia would be able to keep Ukraine, Belarus, the Transcaucasian republics, and even expand its territory by dividing the German and Austro-Hungarian empires. And Poland and Finland after a while could well become Russian dominions. No less successful results of the war would await our country in the south. Russia would finally realize its centuries-old dream and take possession of Constantinople. The further course of events is not difficult to predict: Constantinople goes to Greece, and the Russian Empire gains control over the Straits.
Director of the Historical and Archival Institute Alexander Bezborodov expresses a different point of view. He believes that if the revolution had not occurred, the Russian Empire would have disintegrated into several small parts. “And then the process would only get worse. It would be a fragmentation of the country like the early feudal era that our country was going through, when nothing was left of it, and it became an easy prey for anyone known,”the historian concludes.
And if we look even further into the future, in which our country does not exist in a socialist, but in a capitalist form. How would this affect relations with Nazi Germany? Perhaps the Russian government would not have helped forge the Reichswehr, and would not have made an agreement with Hitler, as the Soviet authorities did. The Fuhrer would hardly have given up on the appetites of conquest, but the probable war would have acquired a different time frame, scale, would have had a different scenario.
Supreme power
By 1917, the monarchy in Russia had seriously discredited itself, however, having excluded the Bolsheviks from the history, it is possible to preserve the title, including Nicholas II, who eventually became a symbol of victory. His dream is a constitutional monarchy, however, plans for the restoration of unlimited autocracy were hatched in military circles, which Nicholas objected to.
One of the options for the development of events: the tsar resigns from himself the powers of "the owner of the Russian land" and transfers the throne to the Grand Duke Mikhail Alexandrovich, who then, in the conditions of a catastrophe, was simply afraid to take on such responsibility. Another contender for the throne is Tsarevich Alexei, but his illness would hardly have allowed him to hold the highest post for a long time. Looking at how the events of the early 20th century echo with the Troubles at the turn of the 16th-17th centuries, our ancestors could once again witness the emergence of a new ruling dynasty.
At the same time, it is necessary to make a reservation that the option of preserving the monarchy would be realistic if it was possible to prevent the February Revolution and drive the liberal parties deep into the underground. After all, after February, there were practically no political forces left to support the tsar. And after the abdication of Nicholas II, this process could no longer be reversed. And then what? The incapacitated Provisional Government would be replaced by another form of government - it is possible that a parliamentary republic headed by the president.
However, can we talk about the prospects for democracy in post-monarchist Russia? The history of three European countries at once - Germany, Spain and Italy shows that the republics in the first third of the XX century were extremely unstable, their history ended with a dictatorship - Hitler, Franco, Mussolini. It is unlikely that Russia would have been able to take a different path: instead of the left-wing Bolshevik dictatorship, it would have received a right-wing dictatorship - national-patriotic. Otherwise, the country could fall apart.
Domestic policy
Even if it were possible to put an end to Bolshevism, the danger of the existence of left-wing radical movements would still remain in Russia. With a strong political will, Russia would have to turn, if not into a police state, then into a country with a rigid vertical of power, to which legislative, judicial and executive bodies would be subordinate.
Parliamentarism would most likely have remained in its former form, however, in order not to destabilize the situation in the country, the Duma would have to end inter-faction wars and rally to achieve the tasks set by the government and the head of state. One of such tasks would be the intention to make the country one of the world's economic leaders.
Capitalism, which has been gaining strength in Russia since the beginning of the 20th century, has given birth to a new social system that is by no means oriented towards social justice. Those who learned to exploit their less fortunate fellow citizens had money, power, and a decent life. Under these conditions, socialist parties would gain strong positions, and Russian capital, in order to avoid shocks, would have to listen to them.
At first, the Russian economy would have remained predominantly agrarian. Considering that at the beginning of the 20th century, the Russian share of world exports of agricultural products reached 40%, it would be a sin not to strengthen its position in this sector of the economy.
In the case of the status of a victorious country following the results of the First World War, Russia would receive its share of indemnities from defeated Germany, which would allow it to invest additional funds in industrialization. But there are still many problems: this is both a peasant and a labor issue, moreover, radical economic reforms required colossal costs and a large influx of workers. Could Russia have mobilized its forces, as the USSR did? Obviously, yes, but the focus would be not on internal resources, but on external loans.
In this case, the Russian economy would be more dependent on the world market, and no one knows how the economic crisis that gripped almost all capitalist countries in the late 1920s would have responded to us. It is possible that the authorities would not have coped with growing unemployment and falling living standards. And then the postponed scenario of October 1917 is quite likely.
Religion
On the eve of the October Revolution, the country was going through a serious religious crisis largely due to the anti-clerical campaign conducted by the Bolsheviks. However, a blow to the status of the Russian Church was also struck by the Provisional Government, which equated Orthodoxy with other religions and took away the general educational institutions belonging to the Church. The Soviets secularized church property and abolished the state status of Orthodoxy on the prepared ground.
Only if the monarchy was preserved could the Russian Orthodox Church remain in its previous state. If a republican era had come to Russia, the consequences for the Church could be the most unpredictable. It is unlikely that the clergy would have faced persecution, but freedom of religion would lead to another church schism, giving rise to a number of movements, sects and sects.
World
In the event of the defeat of Bolshevism in Russia, the world and our relations with it would begin to develop according to a completely different scenario. There would be no proletarian revolutions that changed the political system of China, Korea, Cuba, Laos, Vietnam, there would be no "cold war" that opposed the socialist East and the capitalist West for many decades, there would be no communist movements that are still popular in the developed countries.
Most likely, Russia would not have lost millions of its citizens who immigrated abroad after the revolution. Using this scientific and cultural potential, our country could become the undisputed world leader not only in rocketry and ballet, but also in other industries, including high technologies. It is not excluded that the American dollar, which profited from two world wars, would not be the main reserve currency of the planet - this place of honor would be assigned to the ruble.
Taras Repin