Even if the rate of global warming can be kept within two degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period, it will still not be able to prevent dire climatic consequences. This conclusion was reached by scientists who previously considered such an increase in temperature as an acceptable limit.
Among the consequences of an increase in global temperature by 2 degrees is a rise in sea level, a drop in GDP, a shortage of food and water in some regions of the planet, as well as the rapid extinction of various representatives of the animal and plant worlds. Emerging economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America will be the hardest hit.
“Colossal changes in the climate on Earth are obvious in the event of a temperature rise of 2 degrees. We must avoid them,”says Dan Mitchell, senior lecturer at the University of Bristol (England).
The 197 countries participating in the 2015 Paris Agreement have agreed to make every effort to keep warming levels “well below” 2 degrees Celsius compared to the mid-19th century.
Today the temperature on the globe has risen by one degree. As a result, the world's population is faced with constant droughts, heat waves and storms.
The pledges of some countries to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, made under the Paris Agreement, will at best lead to a warming of the Earth by 3 degrees (if at all). Also, one of the requirements of the Paris Program is a strict limitation of the emission of greenhouse gases - only in those volumes that can be absorbed by the world's oceans and forests.
“It's incredibly important,” Mitchell said in an interview with AFP, “how quickly we get to a 2-degree advance. If this happens within a couple of decades, we simply will not be able to adapt to the changes in the climate."
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Research from the University of Oxford has shown that global warming will lead to a 13 percent drop in GDP by 2100. As a result of an increase in temperature by 2 degrees, the water level in the world's oceans will rise by half a meter during the 21st century, and by 2300 - by more than a meter. This could be a disaster for the nearly 1 billion people who live in areas low in relation to the ocean.
Warming by 2 degrees will help to avoid absolute poverty and, nevertheless, will still lead to droughts, floods and heat. Oman, India, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia will experience particularly acute food shortages in the event of a more significant rise in temperature.
Scientists believe it is unlikely that the rate of warming will be kept within 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. The main obstacle to achieving this goal is carbon dioxide, the volume of which emitted in 2017 increased by 1.4 percent.
“Every tenth of a degree matters,” says Professor Mitchell. “We may not be able to stay within 1.5 degrees, but even 1.7 or 1.8 will be better than just giving up.”
“We can hold the rise to 2 degrees,” said Miles Allen, a professor at Oxford University. - But this requires