The man in the street scolds the weather. The public is concerned about climate metamorphoses. But climatologists are restrained: they have studied the past, state the present, and foresee the future. Why do our laments about abnormal winters and springs leave these people indifferent? Why is the fashionable debate about global warming causing them to gag? Why, disturbed by climatic issues, do they briskly switch to others - geopolitical, economic and religious?
The difficult happiness of the Garamaites
First of all, because they do not care about apocalyptic horror stories: the Earth's climate has undergone changes many times. And these changes, giving people serious trouble, benefited humanity as a whole. Until recently, the scientist believed that civilization was born when the extreme conditions of the last ice age were replaced by the mild climate of the Holocene (about 10 thousand years ago). However, the research of Professor Neil Brooks (University of East Anglia) left no stone unturned from these views.
It all started innocently. Studying the civilization of the Garamantes (Libya), the professor found that its heyday about 3000 years ago fell on a monstrous cataclysm: the earthly paradise turned into a desert, and people crowded around the few surviving lakes. Difficult times forced them to cooperate and create complex structures to protect cities.
Further more. With a professional look, Brooks looked over the entire history of civilization and stated that cataclysms only stimulated its development. Without them, people would still be sitting in trees or engaged in gathering, without encroaching on technological progress. “That is, civilization is not a consequence of systematic progress, but only“a by-product of the need to adapt to catastrophic climate changes”.
The Norwich Science Festival, overjoyed by his lecture, froze in disbelief.
Our answer to "Curzon" There is such a young science - paleoclimatology, the science of climatic history. She gained status in the 80s of the XIX century, and her devoted paladin - in today's Russia. Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor of the Moscow Power Engineering Institute ^ Vladimir Klimenko, head of the Laboratory for Global Problems of Energy, writes books and gives lectures. Hotheads who talk about the melting of the polar ice, about the cooling of the Gulf Stream, the establishment of Alaskan weather in Europe, the shifting of the poles and the malevolent effect of man on the world that gave birth to it, through the efforts of Dr. Klimenko, receive a cold shower. Brooks' sensational theory has harmoniously blended into the system of many years of Russian observations. Scientists came to similar conclusions, although one came from the history of mankind, and the other from the history of climate.
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Hungry brains and legs are fed
Other times have come - in the epics of all the peoples of the world, a good memory of the golden age has been preserved. This period, which lasted for about four thousand years, was called the climatic optimum: the natural conditions were extremely favorable, the temperature was 1-1.5 degrees higher than modern. However, between the VI and IV millennia BC. e. a catastrophe occurred again: due to natural changes in the Earth's orbit, the activity of monsoon winds decreased, the climate became drier, and the population again moved to where water resources and fertile soil were available. The early civilizations of Africa, Mesopotamia, South Asia, China and Latin America are associated with this period. The cold snap began to decline, but not without a trace: before it, the ancient Chinese gathered three harvests a year; now it has become impossible - it was necessary to increase the area of cultivated land, new ones were needed,more durable weapons. Bronze was replaced by iron.
Heat is repeatedly replaced by cold - and now in the cold VI century BC. e. the most ancient of the world religions appears - Buddhism, Zoroastrianism and Jainism are born; Confucius (VI-V centuries BC) lays the foundations of the Chinese worldview; ancient Greek art is flourishing in the century BC)
Under the black sky of Justinian
The deterioration of the climate was accompanied not only by cold snaps, sometimes drought was a disaster. More serious cataclysms also happened. According to the British journalist David Keyes, 535-536 AD became disastrous for the ancient world. e. "The sun, according to Procopius, almost the whole year shed light meagerly, having darkened like the moon, and what was happening resembled an eclipse." It shone, but did not warm not only over Byzantium. Snow was not uncommon in Mesopotamia. In Arabia, famine (a consequence of drought) gave way to flooding, in China, on the contrary, a great dry land was established. Life either died or died: an analysis of tree rings, done by dendrochrochrocologist Mike Bee or (University of Belfast), shows that in 536 oaks in Ireland stopped growing. Similar results were obtained from studies conducted in Sweden, Finland,the Californian Sierra Nevada and Chile.
"The darkening" of the sun was observed throughout the ecumene - atmospheric pollution was of a global nature. Most likely, the cause of the disaster was an eruption that occurred on the periphery of the then civilization, and therefore did not receive documentary confirmation. Case sins on the Indonesian volcano Krakatoa.
Let's refrain from conclusions - we will give facts. Mass epidemics, the resettlement of the steppe tribes to the west, the death of a number of powers in Central and South America, the triumph of the Anglo-Saxons who did not meet with resistance in Britain, the conquest of almost all of Gaul by the Franks, the rise of Paris, the decline of the traditional centers of the Mediterranean, the emergence and rapid spread of Islam … did the events coincide with the climatic catastrophe of the middle of the 6th century? And is it worth the same coincidence to explain the fact that the medieval climatic maximum was replaced by a prolonged cooling of the Renaissance?
It is time to note that periods of climatic “break-off” (cold snap, drought) were accompanied by a creative and technical explosion, while times of prosperity (warm and damp) were characterized by stagnation. Roughly speaking, if Rome is prosperous - on the outskirts of the empire, the people are baked from heat and hunger, cheerfully rises and wins in the struggle against the mighty, but satiated empire.
It's clear who is to blame
Once again, Europe was in a fever at the end of the 18th century. In June 1783, the eruption of two Icelandic volcanoes began: Hekla and Laki. Volcanic dust and poisonous fumes rushed to Europe, in the Northern Hemisphere it became sharply colder. Nuremberg newspapers noted that in the summer the sun could be seen with the naked eye. The cold and lean years went by, the prices of bread soared, Marie Antoinette uttered her historical phrase about pastries, France fooled into the abyss of revolutions. Everyone was to blame: the kings with a sweet tooth, the cool-headed enlighteners, and most of all, the Icelandic volcanoes.
It's time for scientists to expand, in addition to historical and geographical maps, and climatic maps. Assume (at least!) That the climate affects the norms of morality and behavior; to think that its change (albeit not instantly) leads to a change in a person's mentality, or even confessional affiliation. No? Why do Protestants live predominantly in the high latitudes, Muslims in the arid zone, and almost exclusively followers of animistic beliefs in the equatorial zone?
So what to do now?
In an amicable way - wait, in any case - think. In the next fifty years, temperatures will rise in the same way as in the last one hundred and twenty, with a peak around 2200. It will not be possible to avoid this - the role of anthropogenic factors in the fate of the planet is greatly exaggerated. It will not be bad for everyone: for Russia, Ukraine, this period promises to be very favorable climatically, which is alarming, Warming will lead to the drying up of vast areas in Eastern Europe, Siberia and North America. The local population, being hit by the elements (and in accordance with the historical precedent), can take on a spiritual and intellectual mission, leaving “prosperous” states to decay. Actually, this is scary - we went through the recent breakup very painfully. And if this is not the end?
Then another cold snap will come. And it will be long. All natural factors favor this scenario. They calculated that the next supervolcano would crash just about. Professor Klimenko claims that according to the astronomical clock, “we live at the very end of a very short interglacial period. Now it's five minutes to twelve."
Well, let's warm ourselves up in the end, leave our descendants fascinating memoirs. However, they may not have time to read: in the conditions of a scientific and technical breakthrough and severe cold weather, they will have to twist!
F. Grischuk. “Interesting newspaper. Mysteries of Civilization №21 2008