Scientists who are trying to derive a definition of the Anthropocene argue that climatic changes caused by humans on Earth are vastly superior to those caused by natural events over many millennia. They cite figures showing how much people influence the climate. Scientists have developed a new mathematical equation that allows them to determine how we affect the climate. According to them, global temperatures have decreased by an average of 0.01 degrees per century over the past 7000 years. This indicator was taken as the basic one. But over the past 45 years, temperatures have increased by an average of 1.7 degrees per century due to greenhouse gas emissions.
In an article published in The Anthropocene Review, scientists explain that for these billions of years, the Earth's climate has been dependent on astronomical and geophysical forces, as well as the internal dynamics of the planet. In the equation, these natural forces tend to zero due to how slowly they affect the Earth's climate, compared to human activities. In short, while these factors still affect the Earth's climate, human activity far surpasses them. Human-induced climate change occurs 170 times faster than those caused by natural forces.
"We are not saying that the astronomical forces of our solar system or geological processes have gone anywhere, but in terms of their influence in such a short period of time, they are negligible when compared to our influence," says co-author Will Steffen.
“While it would be grossly imprudent to ignore the vast amount of evidence that points to deep risks, the underlying problem lies in geopolitics and even calls into question international cooperation,” adds study co-author Owen Goughney.
This equation is relevant for two reasons. First, it provides a clear illustration of our current predicament. Backed by data on how much humans have influenced the climate in such a short time (it would take millions of years for natural forces to do so), it clearly demonstrates the impact we have on our world.
Crystallizing this evidence into a simple equation clarifies the current situation, Steffen notes.
Second, it can motivate us to take action - especially because we don't have much time to assess all the damage we've caused and take action. The study's authors say that "the magnitude of human influence on climate is more like a meteor impact than a gradual change." Failure to mitigate anthropological climate change could "cause social collapse," the study concluded.
ILYA KHEL
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