The European continent could have turned into a solid radioactive Hiroshima exactly 70 years ago. An alternate version of history that almost became reality.
In the near future, or rather November 11, the world will mark an important historical date - the centenary of the end of the First World War. Which, subsequently, so smoothly and naturally passed into the Second World War that many, not without reason, consider it a continuation of the first.
The main turning points of the second act of this unprecedented in the history of Mankind world military-political catastrophe are all the more important for us.
In particular, there is still no completely unambiguous and sufficiently convincing answer to the question of the reasons for the refusal of the leadership of the Third Reich to invade the British Isles and conquer England. And this despite the fact that Britain was Germany's worst enemy during the First World War and, as such, from the German point of view, certainly deserved retribution. Similar to the one that befell France.
But that didn't happen. The German operation "Sea Lion" to seize the British metropolis, which was allegedly prepared by Hitler, was canceled, for reasons that, to this day, are far from clear.
The most widespread and actively supported version in the modern media is that from a military point of view, the Nazis had no chance to capture foggy Albion.
They say the royal fleet was no match for the German one, and the British aviation convincingly proved its superiority in the "battle for England" and even the British ground forces, it turns out, were in good shape and were just waiting for that to properly "nag" the enemy.
However, all this vigorous Anglo-Saxon version begins to pour in frankly with a more attentive and unbiased acquaintance with real historical facts.
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I'll tell you right away. I do not know for certain why Hitler refused to invade the British Isles. But among the possible reasons for this decision, the purely military impossibility of successfully completing Operation Sea Lion, in my opinion, is the most doubtful.
Below will be set forth considerations and facts that directly indicate that the German military invasion of England, whether carried out, had a very high chance of achieving its goals.
So, in order:
1. The period under review is the summer of 1940. Immediately after the defeat of France. The most favorable time, in all respects, to attack the British coast.
2. In June 1940, in the British Isles, the ground forces, as an organized, sufficiently armed and combat-ready force, were absent in principle. The demoralized crowd of soldiers escaping from France obviously does not count. For the formation of a new full-fledged army, the British, as is known from subsequent events, took exactly 4 years, and even then - with massive US support.
3. The balance of forces at sea. First, I ask you to avoid a very common mistake and not to confuse the entire British fleet, scattered around the world, with the so-called "home fleet". In this case, we are only interested in the second. The first is out of the game simply because he was too far away. Some numerical superiority of the present surface fleet of the mother country over the German was completely covered by more than a double superiority of the German submarine forces in this theater. As of mid-1940, approximately 80 to 35 units.
In the event of an attempt by the British fleet to prevent the German landing on the islands, this could have ended in a merciless beating due to the extremely unfavorable conditions for conducting hostilities near the enemy-occupied coast of Europe, studded with German air bases.
In addition, the British fleet, in the event of its attempt to block the English Channel, already on the approaches to it would be met by a German surface fleet capable of providing very serious opposition. Quite enough to cover the amphibious landing.
A clear example of the effectiveness of the "Kriegsmarine". One German battleship "Bismarck", which was practically senselessly killed in 1941, with its exit to the Atlantic put on the ears half of the fleet of the mother country and at the same time drowned, and with the first volleys, the newest British battle cruiser "Hood".
No less indicative in this sense is the breakthrough across the English Channel to Germany of a large formation of the German surface fleet in February 1942, consisting of two battleships, one heavy cruiser and six destroyers. The vaunted British navy, even at the height of the war, was unable to prevent this breakthrough right under its own nose.
And in 1040 British surface ships would have been shot at point-blank range by German submarines. It should be emphasized that the anti-submarine defense forces of the British fleet at that time were minimal. And they had no chance to neutralize the German submarines in the event of their massive use. The situation of the British at sea was so desperate that in September 1940 they were forced to ask the United States for 50 old destroyers of the 1 MV era to fight German submarines in exchange for their overseas military bases! But these destroyers would definitely be in time for the invasion.
Moreover, German submarines during that period of the war quite successfully coped with the British fleet, even alone. It is widely known that the U-26 submarine penetrated directly into the main base of the British fleet Scapa Flow in November 1939, where she sank the battleship Royal Oak, after which she successfully returned home.
4. In addition, the British fleet, forced to approach the coast of German-occupied continental Europe, would have been effectively struck by German aircraft from coastal airfields. The task of isolating a relatively small and extremely inconvenient for the actions of large warships of the water area - the English Channel, the Luftwaffe would have solved without problems. A year later, the Japanese pilots who sent the British battleship Prince of Wales and the battle cruiser Ripals to the bottom proved the high effectiveness of air strikes against large ships of the British fleet, despite their full readiness to repel an air attack, unlike the Americans, slept through the Japanese attack at Pearl Harbor.
The British battleship Prince of Wales sinks in an air attack, December 1941.
5. Situation in the air. The so-called aerial "battle for England", in which the British achieved some success, is not an indicator in this case. There, German fighters covered quite a few bombers, operated at maximum ranges and were therefore not effective enough. Covering a German landing in the English Channel is a completely different format of military operations. Exceptionally favorable for the use of all types of the German Air Force. And, above all, fighters. These forces would have been more than enough for air cover for a landing operation.
If anything, the British Air Force would be bound by the battle. And they would definitely not have the opportunity to destroy the amphibious assault forces. In addition, “in the absence” of an efficient land army in England at that time, the British Air Force (airfields and radar system) would be very quickly paralyzed by the actions of the German airborne troops. Which have fully proved their high efficiency during the operation against Belgium and Holland. And later, during the capture of Crete. By the way, the Cretan operation of 1941, where German paratroopers acted against the well-entrenched British on the island and ultimately won a complete victory, albeit a rather bloody one, is, in fact, a miniature model of what the British Isles expected in the event of a German invasion. Moreover, the attack on Crete was, in a sense, an even more difficult operation from the point of view of the balance of forces and the characteristics of the naval theater of operations than the jump across the narrow strait to England.
Operation Mercury. The capture of Crete by a German landing party, May 1941
6. Moral and political condition. Britain at that time was completely demoralized in connection with the defeat in France. The German troops were inspired by the greatest victories, the conquest of almost all of Europe, and were ready to put a victory point on British soil. And although the British, to this day, assure that they would have shown the Germans where the crayfish winter if they landed on their islands, the real historical facts do not confirm this bravado, to put it mildly.
In any case, after the Germans in June 1940 captured the British islands of Jersey and Guernsey off the coast of Normandy, with a rather large British population, the proud Britons not only did not put up any resistance to the invaders, but also quite peacefully coexisted with them for 4 years. Even the local British police continued to carry out their usual functions practically in an embrace with the Gestapo.
And this is not to mention the fact that one of the largest fascist parties in Europe at that time was the British party of the local admirer of Hitler, Oswald Mosley. A significant part of the British aristocracy was imbued with sympathy for the Nazi Fuhrer.
7. Airborne capabilities. Hitler, in the presence of a political decision to invade, did not cost anything to mobilize all the available floating craft of the Reich and the occupied countries - from yachts, pleasure boats and barges to sea transport. And transfer them within a week or two to the area of the invasion. Yes, it would be an improvisation, not much like a classic military operation. But wasn't everything else then just the same improvisation? The same German blitzkrieg, for example, during which the attack on France was undertaken by the Germans with a double superiority in tanks from the enemy. Adventure? Sure! But, at the same time, very accurately calculated and completely successful. Hitler at that moment, as they say, caught the courage and psychologically, for sure, was ready to act further in the same spirit. And the Wehrmacht,who suffered minimal losses during the capture of France and was filled with fighting spirit, was ready to follow his leader not only to neighboring England, but anywhere in general.
Perhaps the Germans would have had some problems with the transfer of a sufficient amount of heavy equipment across the strait. But given the fact that the British practically did not have it, they are not so significant. And most importantly, if the British, in an atmosphere of defeat and panic, managed to withdraw 300 thousand of their soldiers from France, then the organized and victorious Germans would somehow, but repeat this achievement.
8. The main conclusion: in the summer of 1940 England was militarily defenseless. And Germany, if desired, could capture it even faster than France.
9. Thus, there is no satisfactory military explanation for the failure of the invasion. The version that Hitler allegedly feared a blow in the back from the USSR is unconvincing. It turns out that before the defeat of France, he was not afraid of anything, and immediately after her surrender, when he became the master of all of Europe, he was very frightened. It's strange and ridiculous. Here it is rather the opposite - after everything that happened to Europe, it was time for Moscow to think. And it's too late
the Fuhrer "caught himself". Stalin, if he wanted, could stab the German troops in the back, which were still advancing on France.
Thus, the military motivation for refusing to invade England is not visible. Or rather, it is completely absent. So the reason is something else.
10. What exactly?
Hitler wanted to negotiate with Britain on the division of the colonies? Or rather, not even with Britain, but with the United States - about the division of world spheres of influence? And therefore he feared to seize the Anglo-Saxon ancestral home, believing that America would never forgive him for this.
If this is true, then there is reason to speak of the largest strategic miscalculation of the head of the Third Reich. The Anglo-Saxons, in any case, did not forgive him the conquests of all Europe, with the exception of the USSR. And they would never have resigned themselves to the fact that almost an entire continent remained under German control.
11. That is, Hitler could not fail to understand that the war in the West would continue and that unconquered England was a very dangerous gap in his "European fortress." And that, sooner or later, it will inevitably become the second pillar of the strategic military "bridge" across the Atlantic and a springboard for the return of the Anglo-Saxons to Europe. In addition, the existence of England, one way or another, fettered his actions in the east of the continent.
Thus, Hitler himself retained the dagger that was eventually stuck in the back of the Third Reich.
12. On the other hand, the capture of England in 1940 would have completely completed the transformation of Europe into an impregnable fortress. The US could not build a "bridge" across the Atlantic. Consequently, an invasion of France in 1944 from the British Isles would have been impossible. From Africa - unrealistic. The Germans would have locked Italy securely like the throat of a bottle. As it actually happened in 1943.
As a result, the war would have lasted much longer. The Germans could accumulate more forces to fight the USSR. On the other hand, there would be no allied convoys to Murmansk with military aid from the West at all. Of course, you shouldn't exaggerate the importance of Lend-Lease, but without it, it would hardly have become easier for us.
And even the second front in Europe opened by the allies at the end of the war should not be discounted. Because, one way or another, he pulled off a considerable part of the German forces. Suffice it to say that the largest breakthrough of the Red Army for 600 km through Poland in the direction of Berlin (Vistula-Oder operation), as a result of which the German capital was under fire from Soviet artillery, occurred precisely at a time when the best shock formations of the Wehrmacht and SS were still on West, after the completion of the operation in the Ardennes.
Vistula-Oder breakthrough of the Red Army for 600 km to Berlin in the central sector of the Soviet-German front. January-February 1945
The morale of the Germans, even in 1945, was quite high. This is evidenced in particular by the fact that even the German groups cut off in the Baltic and East Prussia held out almost until the very end of the war. But the resources of Germany were at that time extremely limited. And therefore, the separation of German troops to the Western Front had fatal consequences for the Eastern.
Although it is not at all necessary that the Germans would attack us at all in the event of the successful capture of the British Isles in 1940. Indeed, even according to the most popular version, the Wehrmacht attacked the Soviet Union precisely because Hitler feared a war on two fronts. And, in his own words, in 1941 he found himself "in the position of a shooter with only one cartridge." If England were liquidated, he would have no particular reason to waste this cartridge on us.
Germany and the USSR perfectly divided Eastern Europe, controlled vast territories of the planet, very successfully complemented each other as a technological and raw material base and could coexist in this status for at least a hundred years. As for the allegedly irreconcilable "ideological differences", they somehow miraculously ended immediately after August 23, 1939, when the USSR and Germany signed the Non-Aggression Pact.
13. If the Germans seized the British Isles in 1940, the geopolitical situation would most likely be frozen for several years. Until the United States has completed the creation of atomic weapons and stockpiled them in sufficient quantities. And they would also build a super-powerful strategic aviation. Moreover, not on the basis of outdated B-17, but B-29 level aircraft. In order to subject Nazi Europe to a devastating atomic bombing. As you know, even in the historical scenario that took place, the Americans did not manage to use atomic weapons against Germany for only a couple of months. However, in the event of a longer war, Hitler would certainly have received an atomic bomb. Which, moreover, by 1945 had an impressive missile potential. And there was an intensive development of intercontinental combat missiles.
The V-2 ballistic missile, which the Nazis fired at London, was designed as the second stage of the A-9 / A-10 intercontinental missile, intended to fire at the United States.
And then it is generally not known how it would have ended. For the sides to accumulate a resource for waging a full-scale aviation-missile-nuclear war, they would need about three years. So it turns out that exactly by 1948, Europe could well have turned into one continuous radioactive Hiroshima.
13. In any case, it looks like the refusal of the final solution to the British problem in the summer of 1940 was Hitler's decision, which ensured Germany inevitability of a war on two fronts and, ultimately, led her to a relatively early defeat. And at the same time, it saved the European continent from the fate of the atomic ashes. Although even in the come true version of the story, everything hung literally by a thread. And the bill went literally for weeks and months. So it seems that Humanity is still very lucky, as it does not sound blasphemous against the background of the terrible losses that it suffered in that war.
Yuri Selivanov