Mars is becoming an increasingly hot topic of discussion, both with the success and development of SpaceX, and in general with the actualization of the topic of colonizing another planet. Who else if not Mars? In connection with the Red Planet, the most interesting topics and scenarios are being developed, from the construction of underground bases to the complete ennobling of the planet, turning it into a second Earth. Former astronaut Jeff Hoffman, for example, plans to supply Mars with oxygen.
It will happen one day. NASA is preparing to produce its new heavy rocket, the Space Launch System (SLS), that will send humans out of Earth's orbit; maybe the ridiculous Mars One show will somehow get out and still start doing decent things; the main hopes, of course, are pinned on SpaceX.
We have already come to the conclusion that human civilization definitely should and will populate Mars. But before you start saving up for a one-way ticket to Gale Crater, you need to get a good look at the circumstances that will prevent us from building a stable extraterrestrial colony. It won't be easy.
But if it does, then everything will happen in five steps.
1. Get to Mars
In the next ten years, NASA will finally have a spacecraft capable of delivering people to Mars. The massive new 2,500-tonne SLS, mated to the Orion capsule, will allow astronauts to explore space beyond Earth's safe, low-Earth orbit for the first time since the end of the Apollo lunar program in 1972.
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While any long-term mission will likely require the inclusion of a habitat to give the crew some wiggle room, a nine-month journey to Mars will be awkward and boring. And also extremely dangerous.
Quite irrespective of the launch risks, during a flight to Mars, the crew will be exposed to devastating levels of radiation, which could significantly increase the risk of cancer. And if they choose to have healthy Martian children, cosmic radiation can also damage sperm and eggs.
Landing safely on Mars is also a problem. NASA used an innovative "sky crane" to land the monochromatic Curiosity rover on the surface in 2012. The Orion capsule weighs nearly 10 tons, not including the lander or service module.
The agency is currently developing giant inflatable heat shields that will slow the spacecraft as it approaches Mars and make landing a large ship feasible.
The good news is that getting to Mars in one go is essentially an engineering challenge, but there are more challenges. Jeff Hoffman points out that the whole venture will be very expensive. “What finances will be required for the development of Mars by humans, it is difficult even to imagine,” he notes. Tens of billions of dollars, no less.
Hoffman suggests that a new generation of entrepreneurial billionaires interested in space exploration could be part of a new, social solution. “Elon Musk says he wants to go to Mars, and I hope he succeeds,” says Hoffman.
2. Become self-sufficient
Once you've successfully landed on Mars, you'll want air, water, food, and energy to live on. In the short term, you can count on the supply of supplies brought from Earth or sent on a supply mission, but in the end you will have to produce everything yourself.
NASA's 2020 Mars rover - essentially an upgrade to Curiosity - will be equipped with an electrolysis experiment to extract oxygen from carbon dioxide in the Martian atmosphere.
“For the first time in history, we will produce oxygen on the surface of Mars,” says Hoffman, who is working on the instrument. "It will be one hundred times less than what is needed for a human expedition, but this is just the beginning."
There is evidence that Mars was once inundated with water - with lakes, rivers and oceans. Today, it is likely that the ice caps of Mars are full of water and seasonal currents can flow even below the surface. Extracting water from urine and sweat has already proven to be an effective disposal system - proven on the International Space Station.
This will help at first, but will not be enough to sustain the community, so a local source of fresh water will be essential.
Food production on Mars can be much more difficult. The Mars Society, a nonprofit organization, experimented with growing food at an isolated desert research station in Utah. “We did some interesting biology, but we didn't make it to the mouthwatering biology,” says Mars software engineer and enthusiast Digby Tarvin of his last time on the station 10 years ago.
Tarvin is set to return to the research station in Utah and says significant progress has been made since then.
“People have grown edible greens, but this is not enough for us to start living on what we produce,” he says. "One of the research projects suggests the possible use of local breeds as a nutrient substrate with the addition of sufficient minerals and fertilizers."
The ultimate idea is that colonists can grow crops in Martian soil.
When it comes to energy, it's pretty simple: fuel cells and nuclear batteries, complemented by solar panels. However, these resources will have to be carefully managed, and for this the next step is important:
3. Form a government
Managing an extraterrestrial colony may not be as easy as it sounds. The first missions - especially those involving space agencies - will almost certainly be controlled by a hierarchical control system.
The last 50 years of human space flight have taught us that this is the safest method in extreme conditions. However, as the settlement matures, some form of democracy will be preferred.
"A space colony is great for tyrannical control," said Charles Cockell, an astrobiologist at the University of Edinburgh who is studying the possibilities of developing space habitats. "If someone gains control over oxygen, he will also gain control over the population with all the ensuing and very dire consequences in the form of unlimited power."
As the commander of a space colony on Earth, Tarvin is one of the few people with experience in running a Mars base. “This is certainly not a Star Trek-style military environment,” he says. "This is a small group of seriously motivated people and it won't be so difficult to manage them."
The government will need all the accompanying structures. Any new society needs an economy, as well as systems for maintaining the environment, employment, health care, childcare, social services and education. In short, Mars will need bureaucrats.
4. Expand
The first settlers of Mars will live in capsules, in which they arrive on the planet, possibly connected to other capsules and inflatable domes. But when they start using local resources in the form of water, food and energy, they will also need local materials to build a larger colony, or even a whole series of colonies.
At the very least, it would make sense to use the Martian rock so that the colonists could go underground and hide from the harmful radiation. Surfaces could be drilled to form caves, rocks extracted for further use as building materials - just as we build houses from stone on Earth. It may also be possible to extract minerals for the development of metals or glass.
Robert Zubin, President of the Mars Society, is one of the leading proponents of terraforming Mars - transforming the planet from an airless, barren world to a green and oxygen-rich world with a fully functioning ecosystem.
There is, however, a major problem in trying to fill Mars with a breathable atmosphere. The Earth's atmosphere is contained in a magnetic bubble known as the magnetosphere, generated by our magnetic field. Mars does not have such a field, and any atmosphere that has ever been on it was most likely carried away by a stream of charged particles, or by the solar wind sweeping from the Sun.
The history of the past of the Martian atmosphere is currently being explored by the Maven mission, but even if we recreate this thin bubble of breathable air on the Red Planet, it is likely the fate of the past atmosphere.
5. Have children and strengthen the culture
Assuming that the sperm and eggs of astronauts will not be destroyed by space radiation on the way to Mars (space agencies are seriously considering this issue), sooner or later a certain percentage of settlers will want to have children.
After all, this is the only way to sustain the colony through the generations. For successful development, the population must be large enough to avoid degeneration in the course of future generations.
Cameron Smith, an anthropologist at the University of Portland in Oregon, suggested that a population of 2,000 would be enough to ensure long-term survival.
“If we want to have a happy future in space, it will not be built on a handful of astronauts, but on the whole society,” she said. Smith believes that with the development of new generations and the birth of a new culture, people are more likely to become Martians than migrants.
Zubin agrees with this point of view: “At some point, the Martian base will cease to be a base and will become a normal village,” he says. “A real society with real people living real life, with children, with schools, with orchestras and so on.”
A child born across the red sky of Mars will most likely have a worldview different from the terrestrial one and may never return to his home planet. Every step towards the establishment of human civilization on Mars is entirely possible. One question remains: will you go for it? Mars is a cold, airless, cruel and red place. The simple task of surviving on it will become a daily challenge.