How Does The Traffic Forecast Work - Alternative View

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How Does The Traffic Forecast Work - Alternative View
How Does The Traffic Forecast Work - Alternative View

Video: How Does The Traffic Forecast Work - Alternative View

Video: How Does The Traffic Forecast Work - Alternative View
Video: Forecasting Methods Overview 2024, May
Anonim

Many people simply cannot get into a car and not start the navigator to see how and how long they have to go. I am a person who still found the time when it was necessary to drive a car with a map. It was only 10-15 years ago, and therefore I even have great respect for simple navigators, although I think that they make you dumb. But maps with a forecast of traffic jams are generally fantastic, which many underestimate. True, not many people know how traffic jams are built and treat them as something that simply exists. Everything is both simpler and more complicated than it seems. So let's figure it out to understand how the traffic forecast works. Knowing this, you can use these opportunities much more productively.

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How the navigator receives traffic data

Even if you know the city perfectly, it will still come in handy from time to time to see the travel times. This is especially important in big cities, when you know how to get to the other end of the city (or just to an area where you rarely visit), but you do not know what kind of traffic jams there are at this time of day.

First of all, you need to understand that navigators have two types of data. Some are called static and some are called dynamic. The first includes those data that do not change for a long time and are part of the terrain. These can be buildings, structures, points of interest (POI), roads, road signs, and so on. Simply put, everything that is on the terrain, and what you need to know in order to navigate it normally.

Dynamic data includes traffic situations and things that change every day, or even several times a day! For example, traffic jams, ceilings and so on. Without this data, you can drive, but it will not be so convenient. Although, if you are driving a long distance and you only need to understand when to turn onto another highway, you do not need dynamic data at all.

There are such traffic jams, but today we are not talking about them
There are such traffic jams, but today we are not talking about them

There are such traffic jams, but today we are not talking about them.

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For the convenience of work and the speed of updating the map, it is divided into sections, which are processed separately and then compared with neighboring sections. Also, the new data does not completely overlap the old, but is superimposed on them. The old ones in this case have less weight, but they provide a smoother change in the road situation, because it cannot change instantly. The speed data are also averaged - no one monitors the speed of each car.

How the navigator determines the traffic jam

For the navigation system to understand that there is a traffic jam on the road, it must receive a lot of data. First of all, she needs to understand the nature of each particular road and how many cars are driving on it with a significant deviation from the maximum or average speed. For example, 100 cars on the Moscow Ring Road or 100 cars in the center on a road with one lane are very different things. Just like one tractor that "vomits" in the right lane at a speed of 20 km / h instead of the permitted 80 km / h, it is not the same if the entire flow is going at minimum speed. Well, of course, two cars at a speed of 10 km / h on a country road, where 60 km / h is formally allowed, will also not make the system think that there is a traffic jam.

There was even one joker who took the time and money to "draw" a traffic jam on the map. To do this, he placed several dozen smartphones with the included navigator on a small, obviously free street. As a result, the system perceived these navigators as if they were installed in cars, and realizing that there were a lot of them on the road and they were standing, it showed a serious jam on the map.

Here's that joker with phones all along the road
Here's that joker with phones all along the road

Here's that joker with phones all along the road.

This is how the navigator understands where there is a traffic jam and where not. That is, if navigators are hanging in all cars in the city, we will receive the most complete data. On the other hand, nobody canceled the 18:00 joke.

Someone drives through traffic jams, but someone is lucky and he goes against them
Someone drives through traffic jams, but someone is lucky and he goes against them

Someone drives through traffic jams, but someone is lucky and he goes against them.

At 18:00 all of Moscow looks at Yandex where there are no traffic jams in order to simultaneously leave and create the largest

How accurately traffic jams are shown in the navigator

Since the data is built on the basis of the movement of cars and navigators in them, then traffic jams can be built with some assumptions. For example, if you are driving along a narrow street and get stuck in a traffic jam, which was formed due to a tree that fell a couple of minutes ago, you will not see this traffic jam on the map, since there is not enough data from other navigators yet. Moreover, if there are no cars with navigators in this traffic jam, it may not appear on the maps at all.

There are also delays in calculating traffic jams, when the system needs to compare the data and understand how fast the cars are passing this section. Only after processing will she tell you exactly how much you will go through this section.

However, even after such a calculation, there may be errors in the route construction time. Even the traffic forecast cannot protect against such errors.

So what to do? We must go
So what to do? We must go

So what to do? We must go.

For example, you leave work at 18:00 and see that it’s 30 minutes to get home. But in the end you drive 60 minutes. This happens due to the fact that everyone left work at this time and loaded the roads, and the navigator built a route based on the actual situation. Sometimes some systems use statistics to predict travel times, but these can also vary a lot. For example, an accident, heavy rain or road repairs in the same lane can turn a relatively clear road into a hopeless one.

Can one person influence the traffic data in the navigator?

Of course, he can, if he blocks the entire road with his car or touches a trolleybus at an intersection. But seriously, no.

In order for the difficulty to appear on the map, dozens of navigators need to register the absence of movement on the road. If we are talking about fixing accidents or messages about a traffic situation, then several people must confirm the message of another user. If it is written that "there is an accident in the right lane", but it is not, several people will say that there is an error in the data and the mark will disappear from the cards. By the way, this is how accident notifications disappear when the cars have already been stolen.

It seems that the accident is small, but the traffic jam because of it can be huge
It seems that the accident is small, but the traffic jam because of it can be huge

It seems that the accident is small, but the traffic jam because of it can be huge.

Can a pedestrian with a navigator knock down the traffic jam system

In theory, slow pedestrians with navigators in their phones walking next to the road can cause confusion and form a traffic jam, but this is extremely unlikely, because it is enough to conduct a minimal behavioral analysis and everything will become clear.

The pedestrian usually moves very evenly. The speed almost does not drop beyond 4-6 km / h. However, it does not stop every 20 meters and does not accelerate sharply to 10-20 km / h. Simply put, looking at the track of pedestrian movement, it is very difficult to confuse it with the track of a car in a traffic jam.

What do the points of road congestion in Yandex Maps mean?

To make it easier for users to navigate in computer algorithms, all information is displayed in the form of three colors superimposed on the road, or numbers on a ten-point scale, which indicate the level of difficulty - from “roads free” to “walking faster”.

Many have noticed how a lot has changed a few years ago, and what was previously marked as 8 points, began to be marked as 5-6 points. This is not a conspiracy and attempts to placate the drivers, distracting them from what is happening in the country (people also had such a version). This happened due to the fact that the traffic jams became larger and there was no point in always writing 9-10.

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Also, the scores depend on the city. The higher the load there, the lower the figure for the same level of traffic jams. That is, the same situation in Moscow and a small city will be displayed, for example, as 5 and 8 points, respectively. That is, for some it is a daily picture, while for others it is almost a collapse.

This happens due to the fact that the maximum speed at night is taken as the standard of zero points or "roads are free". For 10 points or "walking faster" the maximum load in each particular city is taken.

Is it possible to believe traffic jams in the navigator

It is possible and necessary, since he has at least some picture of what is happening, and we can only know the route and the approximate road situation, which is influenced by many variables.

And often there are traffic jams at the congress, when everyone is in line, and they begin to go around and squeeze in
And often there are traffic jams at the congress, when everyone is in line, and they begin to go around and squeeze in

And often there are traffic jams at the congress, when everyone is in line, and they begin to go around and squeeze in.

Many people say that recently navigators are not building the fastest route, but the one that will unload the roads. But isn't this the fastest route when you are sent to a place where there are no traffic jams?

Navigators are constantly learning and getting new settings. Therefore, they become smarter, and self-learning elements make them even smarter. It is already quite difficult without them in the city, and when they get even better, it will be generally good.

The main thing is to understand that the more data there is, the better the map will work and relieve the city's roads. It's also important to celebrate road events. If there is a mark, do not be lazy to click on it and confirm or deny. There is nothing to do in a traffic jam, but such an action will help others. In the end, everyone wants to leave quickly and be at home.