A space accident is predicted by experts monitoring the movement of near-earth debris.
It is highly likely that on January 30, 2020 at 2:39 pm Moscow time (January 29, at 23:39:35 UTC) one American satellite will crash into another. At an altitude of about 900 kilometers, the failed IRAS space telescope, launched back in 1983, and the very ancient spy satellite GGSE-4 - aka 1967-053G or Poppy 5, which was launched into orbit in 1967 to track Soviet radar installations. The ScienceAlert portal reported about the upcoming near-earth accident, citing tweets from the LeoLabs organization, which tracks the movement of space debris.
Experts demonstrate that they have control over the near-earth space.
Experts estimate the probability of a collision from 1/1000 to 1/100. It is possible that the satellites will disperse, but they will sweep at a speed of about 14 kilometers per second, 15-30 meters from each other.
A collision is expected in the skies over Pennsylvania.
If an accident does happen, it will become one of the largest during the exploration of outer space. The IRAS weighs a little over a ton and has a volume of 3.6 x 3.24 x 2.05 meters. The spy is smaller and lighter - about 85 kilograms. They are like a car and a moped. But they will break into thousands of fragments, which will add to the number of large and small space debris objects currently in orbit of the Earth.
American spy satellite: only recently declassified.
According to calculations, the current collision may occur in the skies over the United States.
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THE FUTURE PERSPECTIVE
Space will become inaccessible
In 2009, two satellites collided in orbit - the American operating Iridium and the Russian Kosmos-2251, which had served its time. The result is a cloud of debris flying in different directions.
Two years earlier, the Chinese distinguished themselves by firing a rocket and smashing their own meteorological satellite to pieces.
From 1968 to 1986, the United States and the USSR covered near-earth space with debris - they tested space weapons, shooting a total of 20 satellites. In a word, there was enough space debris without an upcoming accident.
According to NASA data for 2016, 17,729 large man-made objects remained in low-earth orbit, including 4,242 active and failed satellites, as well as 13,487 stages of carrier rockets and upper stages.
The first place in space pollution belongs to Russia. Its "trash" has 6 thousand 318 objects. The USA holds the second place - the Americans have 5 thousand 663 objects. China is in third place with 3,779 properties. It is possible that after the collision between IRAS and Poppy 5, the Americans will take the lead.
The number of small objects like bolts, nuts and other rubbish less than 10 centimeters in size cannot be counted at all. There are millions of them.
Objects orbiting the Earth.
The wreckage is a real threat. From the catastrophe shown in the movie "Gravity", when the debris of destroyed satellites smash a space station to smithereens, no one is safe.
There are no real victims yet, but there are cases when debris particles pierced the details of operating devices and even disabled satellites. The holes were found in at least two shuttles. And the ISS regularly maneuvers to dodge an impending collision.
And if nothing is done, it will soon become impossible to dodge, warns Donald Kessler (Donald Kessler). And threatens with "Kessler syndrome."
Donald was once NASA's premier space scavenger and a pioneer in trash research. Back in 1978, he noticed the latent threat posed by the orbital dump. Like, with its growth, a moment will surely come when collisions will provoke a kind of chain reaction. Objects will start colliding with each other, crushing, scattering in different directions like an avalanche and multiplying catastrophically. This nightmare was called "Kessler's syndrome".
The forecast is this: sooner or later, a garbage shell will appear around the Earth, through which no one can fly - neither here nor there. And this is where the exploration of outer space will end. At least for a hundred or two years, until some of the rubbish gets into or burns out in the atmosphere. A similar perspective, by the way, is talentedly shown in the cartoon about love and garbage "Valley" - where the spaceship literally breaks through the crust of satellites and other garbage that covers the Earth.
What to do? Clean up after yourself somehow. But there is no effective method yet.
VLADIMIR LAGOVSKY