Even 15 years ago, most ordinary people were skeptical about the warnings of scientists about the onset of global warming. The predicted increase in temperature on Earth by 1-2 degrees seemed to be something insignificant, not having a big impact on us. However, the abnormally warm winters in the regions of Siberia and the Far North, the hot summer of 2010, hurricanes and heavy rains in 2015 and 2016, make you seriously think about the pros and cons of global warming.
Melting arctic ice
Long-term observations of scientists confirm that the area of the Arctic ice cover is steadily decreasing.
On the one hand, this is a clear plus in economic terms. For example, this gives good forecasts for the possibility of year-round navigation along the Northern Sea Route, without the use of icebreaking ships.
First of all, this will have a beneficial effect on the supply and development of the northern regions, and the development of the shelf zone, rich in undiscovered energy sources. It is not for nothing that Russia, since 2001, has been systematically working to secure the right to this part of the Arctic shelf.
In addition, the Northern Sea Route will allow direct transit of goods from Europe to the countries of Southeast Asia. For example, the length of such a route from the Scandinavian countries to Japan, Korea and China, in comparison with the route through the Suez Canal, is shorter by almost a third, which once again confirms its effectiveness.
But on the other hand, the rapid melting of the Arctic ice, in conjunction with the melting of the Antarctic glaciers, threatens a significant rise in the level of the world ocean. In this case, huge coastal zones will be flooded, including on the territory of Russia. According to some pessimistic forecasts, St. Petersburg, Vladivostok, Sevastopol and other large port cities may soon go under water.
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Warmer climate
For Russia, in most of which winter lasts almost six months, the benefits of reducing the heating season are obvious. But at the same time, economists note the increasing costs of air conditioning in the summer. Especially in big cities.
Every summer, in Russia, new cases of death from the heat are recorded. And if earlier, this mainly happened in the central and southern regions, then in recent years, information has been received about the deaths from overheating in the Far East in the Novosibirsk and Krasnoyarsk regions. Also, the number of victims of floods caused by heavy rains is increasing. Unfortunately, people are more likely to die from lightning strikes and devastating hurricanes.
To this we must add the danger of contracting infectious and parasitic diseases, which were previously uncommon in our latitudes. Scientists epidemiologists note that in recent years the habitat of insects - carriers of diseases, including malaria mosquitoes and encephalitis ticks, has significantly expanded its borders to the north. For example, some diseases, which were previously brought only by tourists from southern countries, can now be contracted when swimming in reservoirs of the Moscow region.
Agricultural activities
The impact of warming on agriculture is also mixed. On the one hand, the territory for comfortable farming will increase in the central and northern regions, as well as in Siberia and the Far East. But at the same time, the main traditional granaries of the Caucasus and southern regions of Russia may find themselves in an unfavorable climatic zone.
Already, scientists are sounding the alarm about the depletion of black soil. Heavy rains and winds destroy the top fertile layer of the earth. And with higher temperatures and frequent droughts, this process will go even faster. Thousands of hectares of arable land can turn into saline steppes. A striking example of this is Kalmykia, where land desertification threatens 80% of the republic's territory.
Thus, summer heat can bring other disasters, such as the spread of insect pests. Recently, not only the southern regions, but also Central Russia and Western Siberia have been exposed to locust infestations. And the cities of the Krasnoyarsk and Irkutsk regions suffer from the apple moth, whose larvae previously could not survive the low temperatures of the Siberian winter.
In the summer of 2016, on the Yamal Peninsula, for the first time since the beginning of the last century, there was an outbreak of the Siberian plague. Within two months, the epidemic not only caused enormous damage to the reindeer herds, but also resulted in human casualties. Most scientists agree that the cause of infection and widespread spread of the disease was the melting of the "permafrost" in an abnormally warm summer. To this should be added the possibility of the emergence of new diseases caused by the thawing of ancient microbes and viruses.
Influence on nature
The melting of glaciers in the Caucasus Mountains, in Altai and in the Eastern Sayan Mountains has already led to a manifold increase in avalanches, landslides and mudflows. In a matter of hours, mountain rivers turn into raging streams of mud, overflow the banks and wash away entire villages. However, if the foothills are now suffering from floods, in the future this may lead to significant shallowing of rivers, whose sources originate in mountainous regions.
The number of forest fires is increasing. In the summer of 2015, huge areas of forests burned in the Irkutsk region and the Republic of Buryatia. According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, if earlier most of the fires in the Baikal region were caused by a human factor, then in 2015 these were “dry” thunderstorms. Fireplaces appeared in hard-to-reach places, and the flames were carried over large areas by gusts of wind. Moreover, neither local residents nor meteorologists have observed such strong stable winds before.
The greatest concern is caused by the melting of permafrost, which occupies more than 60% of the entire territory of modern Russia. This is especially true for the regions of the Far North, where climate warming is most noticeable. Thus, according to local reindeer herders, in recent years the snow has melted a month earlier in spring. The tundra is turning into a swamp, which disrupts the seasonal migration of reindeer herds.
Problems arise with the supply of remote regions, since most of the cargo is delivered via winter roads, transportation along which is possible only at low temperatures. However, this is not the worst thing. Ground movements, as a result of abrupt melting, can lead to man-made disasters, violation of the integrity of pipelines. In Yakutia, threats of destruction of industrial buildings and residential buildings have already been recorded.
In conclusion, we can say that a slight warming will be more favorable for the inhabitants of Russia than negative. However, global climate change, a change in the movement of air currents, the melting of "permafrost" and an increase in the level of the world ocean will lead to catastrophic consequences for the entire world.