The exceptionally dry and hot summers do not change the meaning of the warnings of climate scientists related to the future: the biggest challenge for Norway will be extreme precipitation.
Aftenposten: How extreme was the hot and dry summer this year?
Helge Drange: The summer months from May to July were record-breaking hot - two degrees warmer than in 1947, the previous extreme summer. Temperatures have been measured in Oslo since 1837, so the heat has set a serious record! These months were also very dry, the same as the summers of 1947, 1976 and 1994.
Helge Drange works at the Climate Research Center in Bjerknes and is Professor of Oceanography at the University of Bergen.
- What signs of climate change do you see?
“We know that precipitation is increasing in the Northern Hemisphere, and we also know that ocean levels are rising. Sea ice in the Arctic is decreasing both in area and in thickness. We know that glaciers and Greenland ice are melting, we know that the tundra is thawing. Spring comes earlier and autumn later. And the temperature generally rises. So there are so many different changes, but they are all from the same story.
- But there was practically no rainfall this summer?
- There will always be natural variations. For example, last summer was not hot, but very wet. But we're talking about two different things here: the year-to-year variation, which we call "weather," and the longer-term changes, which we call "climate." When we talk about climate change, we look for trends over time. In Norway, precipitation has increased by 20% over the past hundred years. And the temperature during the same period increased by about one degree.
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- One degree in a hundred years doesn't sound like much. Why is this becoming a problem?
- And in winter it's almost pleasant, isn't it? But let's look at the relationship. The last time the Earth was really warm, the temperature was two to three degrees higher than the average temperature we have now. This happened over three million years ago. And then you understand that we are about to meet a climate that modern man has never seen.
In summer it will be hotter more often
- Should we expect in the future that the summer will be more dry and hot?
- Yes, in summer it will be hot and dry more often, and we should also expect the heat to last longer. This does not mean that next summer will also be hot, but the heat in summer will be more frequent. And this does not mean that there will certainly be a drought at the same time. The main problem for Norway will be rainfall, and in summer too.
- Perhaps, at some point we will have to stop calling such weather "extreme"?
- Yes. If we continue with greenhouse gas emissions as we do now, at the end of this century, what is perceived as extreme weather today will become the norm.
- On the globe, the temperature does not rise equally everywhere. What is the current situation in the Arctic?
“She's incredible and scary. Over the past hundred years, the average temperature in Svalbard has risen by 2.5 degrees. During the same period, winter temperatures rose by 3 degrees. Spitsbergen is experiencing a total climate and weather change. The main reason is that the ice is receding, which means colossal consequences. It's really time to sound the alarm here.
- Kari Kjønaas Kjos of the Progress Party told Aftenposten a few weeks ago that she is not sure if the heat is due to greenhouse gas emissions and she thinks we are lucky to have such a wonderful summer … What do you think about this?
- It hurts me to the heart. And at the same time shows how great the need to explain the seriousness of what is happening. We think that modern man is independent, that we can rise above nature and are in complete control of everything. But the opposite is happening. We move away from nature and the forces of nature and become more vulnerable from it.
- How?
- There are more people, mainly, we live in cities. When such extreme events occur, they can lead to death, water supply interruptions, crop problems and reduced food production. It is enough to think about the Middle East and the fact that shrinking water supplies could lead to unrest. Today's refugee situation is serious, but if we have climate refugees, then it will become simply dangerous.
I don't think we will be able to bring emissions to zero
- In the Paris Agreements of 2015, the UN decided that all countries should limit their greenhouse gas emissions so that the temperature on Earth rises by no more than two degrees, but better by one and a half. Is it somewhat realistic that we will succeed?
- Judging by the current situation, the answer is no. We have almost reached the goal of one and a half degrees. In order to achieve the two degrees goal, we need to have zero emissions for 20-30 years, and there is nothing to indicate that we can achieve this. In fact, no state has a chance to achieve this goal. In our country, we are discovering more and more new fields and expanding our activity in the search for oil and gas, so our policy also does not correspond to the idea of zero emissions in the near future.
- Sounds pretty dark?
- Yes it is! We are talking about an existential problem for people and all life on earth. We are talking about the future of many generations.
Guri Gunnes Oppegård