Astronomers have discovered a previously unknown stream of debris from Comet Encke.
In 2022, and later in 2025, 2032 and 2039, our planet is at increased risk of collision with celestial bodies of an asteroid size. This is the main conclusion from the work of specialists from the Astronomical Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences. A preprint of the article is available at arXix.org.
The debris of Comet Encke, known to astronomers as the taurids, is a danger to us. Two meteor showers, first recorded in the century before last, are observed every year in the fall, in October - early November. Their activity is relatively low - an average of seven meteors per hour. The streams were identified with a comet in the middle of the 20th century based on the data accumulated by that time.
Orbit of Comet Encke
Researchers from the Czech Republic, using observational data from 2005–2015, discovered a new, previously unknown stream of debris, the orbit of which crosses the Earth. Today its main "heroes" are two asteroids, named 2005 UR and 2015 TX24, discovered, as you might guess, in 2005 and 2015. respectively. The dimensions of each of them are, apparently, about 200-300 meters. The last time they took place in close proximity to the Earth at the end of October and December 2015. They may be followed by other finds of the same type or larger.
The unpleasantness of the situation also lies in the fact that Encke's comet - the shortest-period known at the moment - is collapsing literally before our eyes, generating streams of space debris. Since its discovery in the early 19th century, the comet has lost about 85% of its mass under the sun's rays, and each new flight past the star (this happens once every three and a half years) may be the last for it. For us, this means that the likelihood of new asteroids appearing in the sky, the fall of any of which can cause serious trouble on Earth, increases, by astronomical standards, with lightning speed - during the life of one or two generations of people.
Sergey Sysoev