At the last Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences, space threats and protection - or rather insecurity - from them were discussed. But the hottest topic was not the asteroids themselves or space debris, but the proposal to develop a national project to monitor and counter space threats. This statement was made at the meeting by Yuri Makarov, Director of the Strategic Management Department of Roscosmos.
Are space threats real?
The meeting of the RAS Presidium began with a report by Boris Shustov, Scientific Director of the RAS Institute of Astronomy, RAS Corresponding Member, on the study and countering of space threats. Both space weather and biological pollution of spacecraft were mentioned, but in the foreground there were two themes - asteroid-cometary hazard and space debris.
In addition, large objects are not the only danger. The size of the Chelyabinsk meteorite that fell in February 2013 did not exceed 20 meters when it entered the atmosphere, but about two thousand people suffered from its shock wave. They were mostly injured by glass fragments from broken windows. In order to warn people in advance about such events, according to Boris Shustov, a new national observation system is needed. Today, Russia's contribution to the detection of potentially dangerous celestial bodies approaching the Earth is less than one tenth of a percent. The situation, according to Boris Shustov, can be changed by the creation of a centralized system of radar observations. Planetary radars must be used to study the orbits of bodies approaching the Earth, create a data bank of these objects, simulate the consequences of a collision with them,simultaneously developing ways to counter them - deviations from previous orbits or destruction. Such methods are now being created in the joint European-American project AIDA, but even there it barely reached the first experiments.
The second key threat in space is man-made debris. Only because of explosions and collisions in 61 years of the space era, about 250 spacecraft were destroyed. Remain in near-earth space and rocket stages. They disintegrate and form entire "clouds" of debris, each of which - even if its size is less than one centimeter across - can disable it in a collision with an active spacecraft. According to various estimates, in the near-earth space there are from 600 to 700 thousand pieces of space debris ranging in size from one to ten centimeters and about 20 thousand even larger. The spacecraft can only defend against them by evading. There are no realistic ways to “clean up” near-earth space yet. The best thing to do now- watch out for accumulated debris and avoid new collisions of launched vehicles. Otherwise, the space industry is threatened by the so-called Kessler scenario - a complete cessation of launches due to debris in the orbit.
Asteroid 2004 EW95 - the first carbon-rich object discovered in the Kuiper belt - in the artist's view.
All observations of space debris in Russia are still conducted from Earth, while the United States, according to Boris Shustov, launched six spacecraft for this purpose. The capabilities of Russian ground-based telescopes are also not up to par. For example, the wide-angle telescope AZT-33VM built in Buryatia operates at only 5% power. As Boris Shustov explained, it takes another 200-250 million rubles to complete the telescope and equip it with all the necessary photodetectors.
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What should we build a national project
Yuri Makarov, Director of the Strategic Management Department of Roscosmos, spoke at a meeting of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences in support of Boris Shustov's report and continued his thought: Russia needs not just several monitoring systems for space objects, but a full-fledged state program to counter the threats of an "asteroid-cometary plan and man-made debris in space." Such a program, according to Makarov, could become one of two segments of a new national project.
As a reminder, 12 new national projects have been launched in Russia for 2019-2024. 5.7 trillion rubles will be allocated for their implementation in the next three years alone. Each national project covers a whole area of social or economic development, for example, science, education, healthcare, digital economy, etc. At the suggestion of Makarov, Roskosmos and the Academy of Sciences can initiate another national project - space. One part of it may be devoted to high energy in space, and the second - to monitoring space objects, including asteroids and space debris, as well as protecting against such threats. It should be noted that Roskosmos was not the first to think of proposing a new national project. A few days before the meeting of the RAS Presidium, it became known that Rosatom had applied to the government with the idea of the thirteenth national project on atomic technologies.
Members of the RAS Presidium generally supported the proposal, although skeptical voices were also sounded at the meeting. The main objection was expressed by the former head of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician Vladimir Fortov. He stressed that Boris Shustov's report dealt with probabilistic threats, but there was no analysis of real losses from space threats. Without economic calculations showing that the space industry is losing significant funds every year due to space debris, no government programs will be adopted.
Vice-President of the Russian Academy of Sciences Yuri Balega notes that the meaning of such a program is not only in protection from potential dangers. “The topic of monitoring space threats is important for the development of high technologies, science, and those means that serve the entire humanity,” the academician told the correspondent. According to him, there is already a significant backlog for tracking space threats in Russia, and the first step in the new program should be the development of ground stations for sky surveying. A network of small wide-angle telescopes, data from which will be compiled and studied in a common center, can become the basis for protection from both approaching celestial bodies and space debris.
Physicists at Moscow University have another version of the space threat monitoring system. According to a leading researcher at the Research Institute of Nuclear Physics. DV Skobeltsyn of the Moscow State University Sergey Svertilov, his team is now developing the Universat-Sokrat system. This project is designed to monitor three types of threats: asteroid hazard, space radiation and so-called electromagnetic transients.
“In the minimal version of the project, it is planned to launch three spacecraft into different orbits. One small spacecraft, of the same type as the operating university satellite Lomonosov, that is, with a payload mass of the order of 100 - 130 kg, should be launched into a low circular orbit at an altitude of 500 - 600 km. Two more spacecraft of the microsatellite class, that is, with a load of up to 40 kg, are supposed to be launched into elliptical orbits with an apocenter height of about 9 thousand km, and a pericenter - 800 - 900 km,”said Sergei Svertilov.
If possible, the group can expand with micro- and nano-devices. Last year, the university completed the development of materials for the draft design for the state contract of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education. Funding for further stages of work (creation of mock-ups of vehicles, then laboratory and flight samples and the flight experiment itself) has not yet been found.
Landing of the Deep Impact spacecraft on an asteroid as seen by the artist.
The most pessimistic view of the fate of the initiative of Roscosmos and the Russian Academy of Sciences was expressed by the head of the space monitoring laboratory of the State Astronomical Institute. P. K. Sternberg (GAISh) MSU Vladimir Lipunov. While not denying the real danger associated with space threats, Lipunov is at the same time confident that the idea will fail: “First of all, I am alarmed by the composition of this project. Now it all looks very sour, none of those who make decisions now will be responsible for them - just look at the age of these participants! It's again about dividing money. According to Vladimir Lipunov, the MASTER network of robotic telescopes created at Moscow State University (now it includes eight telescopes in Russia, South Africa, Argentina and Spain) could become a prototype for a space threat monitoring system.“We started this project on our own initiative in 2002, 17 years ago. Then he was supported by Moscow State University … In total, we spent 57 million rubles, while Roskosmos spent billions during the same time, but did not do anything similar to our system,”says Vladimir Lipunov. According to him, Roskosmos is not interested in the developments of the Moscow State University.
However, Boris Shustov himself is not sure that the initiative of Roscosmos will lead to the creation of a real program for monitoring and countering space threats. Several years ago, a similar federal target program (FTP) was already being developed at the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences. It dealt only with the asteroid-comet hazard. Work on the program began in 2010, and in 2013, when the Chelyabinsk meteorite fell, it was already under consideration by Roscosmos. The amount of funds required under the program was estimated at that time at 58 billion rubles. According to Boris Shustov, Roskosmos positively assessed the program, but it was not adopted due to inconsistency with the law on space activities in force at that time. The law has changed since then, but according to Shustov, little depends on the initiative of the Russian Academy of Sciences: “The decision should be made at the top. If we need such a system, then it will be; if needed, but in 31st order of importance, it will not. " Shustov sees the role of the Academy in current conditions in warnings about existing threats: “It is our duty, as scientists, even if it sounds pompous, to study the world around us, to warn about the threats that appear. I would like, of course, more active work, as it is done in the same USA and Europe. There, on a systematic basis, state-level organizations - NASA divisions, ESA divisions - are engaged in monitoring, involve scientists as experts. "which is around us, to warn about the threats that appear. I would like, of course, more active work, as it is done in the same USA and in Europe. There, on a systematic basis, state-level organizations - NASA divisions, ESA divisions - are engaged in monitoring, involve scientists as experts. "which is around us, to warn about the threats that appear. I would like, of course, more active work, as it is done in the same USA and Europe. There, on a systematic basis, state-level organizations - NASA divisions, ESA divisions - are engaged in monitoring, involve scientists as experts.
Author: Ekaterina Erokhina