Elon Musk has long been unable to abandon the idea of colonizing other planets. He has assembled thousands of employees at SpaceX, who are building the Big Falcon Rocket, capable of carrying 100 people and 150 tons of cargo to Mars. Today he has even more reason to maintain his enthusiasm, thanks to new research assessing the likelihood of an extraterrestrial civilization.
A study by the Institute for the Future of Humanity at Oxford University suggests that we are alone in our galaxy with a probability of 2 in 5. The probability that we are alone in all visible space is 1 in 3. Here is what Musk said, referring to the research:
Breaking down the Fermi paradox
The study, titled Breaking the Fermi Paradox, was published on June 6 in Arxiv, a service for the exchange of scientific papers that have not yet reached the experts' judgment.
Recall that the Fermi paradox raises the question of the reasons why we have not yet been able to meet an extraterrestrial civilization, provided that there are hundreds of billions of stars and hundreds of billions of galaxies in the visible universe.
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Some scientists suggest that extraterrestrial civilizations are destroying each other, due to various fears. We recently talked about a study in which it is believed that climate change is destroying civilizations faster than they begin to conquer space. But Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler and Toby Ord of Oxford believe there is no paradox.
Three researchers focused on the Drake equation. It strikes at the Fermi paradox by proposing seven variables that affect the odds of life. The result of the equation gives the approximate number of civilizations that could broadcast signals in the Milky Way.
Studies based on the Drake equation have been conducted in the past, but three scientists believe that earlier studies did not give due attention to all variables, and the result often depended on the expectations of the author of the study. As a result, some studies suggest the existence of more than 100 advanced civilizations in the galaxy, while others speak of the existence of three civilizations per 10 thousand galaxies.
Oxford scientists analyzed studies on all seven variables of the Drake equation, after which each variable was reformed into an uncertainty range based on all studies. The result of the work was a bell-shaped distribution of results.
The average probability that we are alone in the Milky Way was about 52 percent. And the average probability that we are alone in the entire visible universe is 38 percent. According to the most optimistic forecasts, the probability is 41 percent and 32 percent, respectively. This dissolves hopes of meeting an extraterrestrial civilization, but gives Elon Musk more reason for his activities.
Having formed colonies on other planets, we can protect from possible destruction not only our civilization, but also, possibly, the only intelligent civilization in the galaxy.
Ernest Vasilevsky
