Before the Maidan in Ukraine, there may be few who understood beforehand. Could be mistaken or hope for the best. But now that example, but not one, is before my eyes!
Yes, of course, the Armenians have something to complain about, because of which to criticize the ruling Republican Party and the already resigned Serzh Sargsyan. The economic development of the republic has stopped, the incomes of the population are falling. But all the same, one cannot say that ordinary people have been brought to a certain limit, when you already feel that you cannot tolerate any more and you need to go to the square to overthrow the government by force.
However, if we assess the events in Armenia with a sober head, it is clear that …
… the protests are very well organized, well planned and superbly funded. And the standard slogans of the struggle for democracy, freedom, and the prevention of the usurpation of power by an irreplaceable clique are just a screen. The organizers of the protests act like a blueprint, using the boring techniques of "color" revolutions, when looking at the photographs of the protests there is a strong feeling that somewhere we have already gone through this. For example, the groundless arrest of the opposition leader, the crowd demanding his release, the heroic return of Pashinyan from the regime's dungeons, as well as calls to elect a “people's prime minister” right on the square.
All this is nothing more than a game, an illusion created for the layman in order to assure him of the validity of the goals of the opposition, allegedly capable of bringing a person from the people to power, under which the Armenians will begin to live in prosperity and prosperity.
Such calculations are deeply misleading. In fact, a typical redistribution of power between different cliques of large financial and oligarchic capital is taking place in Armenia. Pashinyan is promoted by the opposition party of the largest Armenian billionaire Gagik Tsarukyan, a former business partner of Robert Kocharian, under whom Serzh Sargsyan was prime minister. In fact, Sargsyan and Pashinyan have been closely related for more than one year.
That is, all this public play with a three-minute meeting between Sargsyan and Pashinyan, the arrest of the latter, and then his release, is most likely specially organized by Sargsyan himself.
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Why does he need it? The fact is that the Armenian oligarchy, despite the formally pro-Russian rhetoric, is subject to the strongest influence of the United States, since most of the financial assets are stored in the West. The oligarchs made it clear to Sargsyan that his continued stay in power was inexpedient. In Washington, obviously, there are other views of the Yerevan political Olympus. Therefore, Sargsyan's attempt at the end of his presidential term to retain power as prime minister failed miserably. Today the only question that really worries the former head of state is the preservation of his assets in the West and further comfortable existence.
Sargsyan decided not to resist the United States, and by prior agreement with the Armenian oligarchs and Pashinyan, who had long been prepared for the role of a “pocket” oppositionist by the regime itself, staged a theatrical show, imitating a “color” revolution in Armenia. As a result, representatives of those financial groups that support the integration of Armenia into the Caspian-Turkish project of the United States will come to power, even if this is fraught with inevitable territorial losses and the rejection of Yerevan's principal claims to Ankara and Baku. The people of Armenia cannot expect an improvement in life in such conditions either. Most likely, he will only suffer from a sharp weakening of state mechanisms and the intensification of the Karabakh conflict.
And Sargsyan? Having worked out his impunity in exchange for Pashinyan's coming to power in Armenia, he will watch the further dismantling of the Armenian statehood from some cozy house in a quiet, calm European country.