Scientists' disappointing predictions regarding the extinction of the white population of the United States have caused heated debate. While some researchers insist on the irreversibility of this process, others point to the fallacy of such views. Scientists prefer to debate on the pages of Science magazine.
Scientists have long been concerned about the spike in US deaths, especially among older and older whites. Some call it a "mortality epidemic", linking what is happening to the availability of certain medicines for all segments of the population. Of particular concern is the widespread use of opiate and antidepressant pain relievers. Angus Deaton, the 2015 Nobel laureate in economics, was one of the apologists for this theory.
Not everyone agrees with the venerable researcher. Thus, scientists from the Center for Health and Wellbeing of Princeton University and the Institute of Economics and Labor of Germany decided to find out if the "death epidemic" is not a simple mistake in calculations. The results of their work were published in the journal Science.
Janet M. Currie and Hannes Schwandt have succeeded in reassuring their colleagues worried about the "mortality epidemic" by fundamentally changing the approach to studying life expectancy. Whereas previous research looked into the past, Carrie and Schwandt tried to look into the future.
Photo: Stephen Morton
Much of the literature on life expectancy today focuses on one age group: Americans 40-50 and older. Researchers linked income and mortality in a given age sample, or calculated the total projected life expectancy at birth in groups of different incomes, educational levels, or race.
Life expectancy at birth is a cumulative indicator that is calculated based on observed mortality rates in different age and demographic subgroups. The life expectancy of children born in one year is based on the observed mortality in the year of birth. But the estimate can only reflect reality if mortality rates remain unchanged in the future, which is not possible. Indicators are constantly changing. For example, between 1978 and 1998, the death rate among middle-aged white Americans declined by 2 percent annually.
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The result of this approach is the exclusion of important groups from the field of vision: children, adolescents and young adults. In fact, the complete disregard in economics and sociology of people under the age of forty, and drew attention to Carrie and Schwandt.
US "mortality epidemic" sparks fierce controversy among scientists
Photo: Lucy Nicholson / Reuters
They used the observed mortality data for all age cohorts for 1990, 2000 and 2010 as the main sample. Having ranked counties (administrative divisions of states in the United States) according to the level of poverty, they identified 20 ranks of the level of general welfare. This sampling method was able to capture up to 5 percent of US residents in each of the different income groups, as well as to account for the race category by county (white and black areas).
The results were very encouraging: child mortality rates in poor counties fell by half between 1990 and 2010 (from 18 deaths per 1,000 to 9). The reduction in inequality in infant and child mortality fell by 50 percent. Based on the data obtained, it is possible to more accurately and more reliably predict mortality at a later age in a certain cohort than using the indicator of older age groups.
A similar decrease in the mortality rate and inequality is observed in other age groups up to 30 years of age for women and up to 50 years of age for men. Mortality at a young age is an indicator of actual changes in social conditions, since the young cohort responds most quickly to them. Life "over forty" is more susceptible to the influence of the past, and if it reacts to changes, then very slowly and with great delay.
Inequality in mortality reflects the problem of social inequality throughout American society. Since 1998, mortality among the white half of the United States has grown by 0.5 percent per year according to a 2015 study by Angus Deaton, and mainly due to the poorest and least educated older groups (30 years and older). The most common causes were alcohol, drug poisoning, drugs, liver disease and suicide.
Since the 1990s, a "chronic pain epidemic" has spread widely in the United States and, as a result, the total dependence of society on painkillers (opiates) readily available in pharmacies. During those same years, antidepressants became one of the most popular drugs in America. The increasing number of mental illnesses has stimulated the prescription of more antidepressants and opiates, as well as higher doses of the drug. The semi-legal and illegal drug market is another significant factor in uncontrolled drug use and the risk of death from overdose or side effects.
There is no consensus among scientists on the accuracy of forecasts
Photo: Jim Urquhart / Reuters
The approach used by Carrie and Schwandt in their study predicts an overall improvement in life expectancy at birth in both high and low poverty counties, and a reduction in mortality inequality between rich and poor. Health insurance programs, social safety nets (Head Start and others) and overall environmental improvements are thought to have contributed to the sharp decline in infant mortality, affecting both prenatal development during pregnancy and life after birth.
The severe state of physical and mental health is primarily due to the consequences of the economic crisis of the 1970s, the AIDS epidemic in the 1980s. Representatives of the older generation fully experienced their destructive impact, first in childhood and then in adolescence. Such events could not be in vain for Americans, in particular the poor. They form a sample of the poor population aged 40-60 with increasing mortality.
The decline in mortality at a young age reflects the improvement in the health of the population due to the improvement in the quality of health care and health insurance, the economic viability of citizens and the level of salaries. This gives grounds to assume and predict the future prosperous youth, maturity and old age of the US population.
Svetlana Ilyukhina