A group of astrophysicists led by American Adam Frank built a model for the development of exocivilization, according to which they identified three possible paths for the development of mankind, writes The Atlantic.
In the astrophysicist model, civilization has used resources for evolution and expansion. The more resources are extracted from the bowels of the planet, the wider the population becomes, but at the same time, the surrounding conditions deteriorate proportionally. As a result, the environment must cross the line when population growth becomes unstable and it faces the threat of extinction.
Therefore, scientists added a switch between the two types of resources to the model. So, with the first option, a lot of energy is generated, but the ecology is significantly deteriorating. When using resources of the second type, energy production is incomparably greater, but no harm is done to living conditions.
The researchers identified three most likely development scenarios.
Withering away
Civilization evolves rapidly, using large amounts of resources, until it reaches its peak population for the planet. Then a sharp decline in population begins, and it ends only with the arrival of equilibrium, when the planet can provide all the remaining inhabitants. During this process, 70 percent of the planet's inhabitants die.
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Smooth landing
Exocivilization initially moves along the first path, but before the critical point, a smooth transition to the second type of resources begins, which saves most of the population and preserves a healthy environment.
Full-blown collapse
Planetary conditions are deteriorating so rapidly that the transition can no longer prevent complete extinction.
Adam Frank noted that the choice of a “weak” fuel source did not always save civilization from extinction - in some scenarios, it only delayed the inevitable.
According to him, these models help to imagine what the future holds for humanity.