Socio-political tension is constantly growing in the world. And some experts predict that everything may turn into a global conflict. How realistic is it in the short term?
The risk remains
It is unlikely that today someone is pursuing the goal of unleashing a world war. Previously, if a large-scale conflict was brewing, the instigator always hoped to end it as quickly as possible and with minimal losses. However, as history shows, almost all "blitzkriegs" resulted in a protracted confrontation involving a huge amount of human and material resources. Such wars caused damage to both the loser and the winner.
Nevertheless, wars have always been and, unfortunately, will arise, since someone wants to have more resources, while someone defends their borders, including from massive illegal migration, fights terrorism or demands the restoration of their rights in accordance with with the previously concluded agreements.
In the event that countries do decide to get involved in a global war, then, according to many experts, they will certainly divide into different camps, which will be approximately equal in strength. The aggregate military, primarily nuclear, potential of the powers that hypothetically take part in the collision is capable of destroying all life on the planet dozens of times. How likely is it that the coalitions will start this suicidal war? Analysts say it is not great, but the danger remains.
Political poles
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The modern world order is far from what it was after the Second World War. However, formally, it continues to exist on the basis of the Yalta and Bretton Woods agreements of the states of the anti-Hitler coalition. The only thing that has changed is the balance of power that took shape during the Cold War. The two poles of world geopolitics today, like half a century ago, are determined by Russia and the United States.
Russia crossed the Rubicon, and it did not pass without a trace and painless for it: it temporarily lost its superpower status and lost its traditional allies. However, our country has managed to maintain integrity, retain influence in the post-Soviet space, revive the military-industrial complex and acquire new strategic partners.
The financial and political elite of the United States, as in the good old days, under democratic slogans continues to carry out military expansion far from its borders, at the same time successfully imposing on the leading countries a beneficial “anti-crisis” and “anti-terrorist” policy.
In recent years, China has persistently wedged itself into the confrontation between Russia and the United States. The eastern dragon, while maintaining good relations with Russia, nevertheless does not take sides. Possessing the most numerous army and carrying out rearmament on an unprecedented scale, he has every reason for this.
A united Europe also remains an influential player on the world stage. Despite the dependence on the North Atlantic Alliance, certain forces in the Old World are in favor of an independent political course. The reconstruction of the armed forces of the European Union, which will be carried out by Germany and France, is not far off. In the face of a shortage of energy resources, Europe will act decisively, analysts say.
One cannot but pay attention to the growing threat posed by radical Islam in the Middle East. This is not only the growing extremist nature of the actions of Islamic groups in the region every year, but also the expansion of the geography and tools of terrorism.
Alliances
In recent years, we have increasingly seen the consolidation of various union associations. This is evidenced, on the one hand, by the summits of Donald Trump and the leaders of Israel, South Korea, Japan, Britain and other leading European countries, and on the other hand, by the meetings of heads of state within the framework of the BRICS bloc, which attracts new international partners. In the course of the negotiations, far from only trade, economic and political issues are discussed, but also all kinds of aspects of military cooperation.
The well-known military analyst Joachim Hagopian emphasized back in 2015 that the "recruitment of friends" by America and Russia was not accidental. China and India, in his opinion, will be drawn into Russia's orbit, and the European Union will inevitably follow the United States. This is supported by the intensified exercises of NATO countries in Eastern Europe and a military parade with the participation of Indian and Chinese units on Red Square.
Advisor to the President of Russia Sergei Glazyev says that it will be beneficial and even fundamentally important for our country to create a coalition from any countries that do not support militant rhetoric directed against the Russian state. Then, according to him, the United States will have to moderate its ardor.
At the same time, it will be of great importance what position Turkey will take, which is almost a key figure capable of acting as a catalyst for relations between Europe and the Middle East, and more broadly, between the West and the countries of the Asian region. What we are seeing now is Istanbul's cunning game on the differences between the United States and Russia.
Resources
Foreign and domestic analysts are inclined to conclude that a global war can be provoked by the global financial crisis. The most serious problem of the leading countries of the world lies in the close intertwining of their economies: the collapse of one of them will entail grave consequences for others.
The war that may follow a devastating crisis will be fought not so much for territories as for resources. For example, analysts Alexander Sobyanin and Marat Shibutov build the following hierarchy of resources that the beneficiary will receive: people, uranium, gas, oil, coal, mining raw materials, drinking water, agricultural land.
It is curious that, from the point of view of some experts, the status of a generally recognized world leader does not guarantee the United States victory in such a war. In the past, NATO commander-in-chief Richard Schiffer, in his book 2017: War with Russia, predicted a defeat for the United States, which would be caused by the financial collapse and the collapse of the American army.
Who is first?
Today the crisis on the Korean Peninsula could be the trigger that could trigger a mechanism, if not a world war, then a global collision. Joachim Hagopian, however, predicts that it is fraught with the use of nuclear charges and at first Russia and the United States will not get involved in it.
Glazyev sees no serious reason for a global war, but notes that its risk will persist until the United States abandons its claims to world domination. The most dangerous period, according to Glazyev, is the beginning of the 2020s, when the West will come out of depression, and developed countries, including China and the United States, will begin another round of rearmament. At the peak of a new technological leap, the threat of a global conflict will lie.
It is characteristic that the famous Bulgarian clairvoyant Vanga did not dare to predict the date of the beginning of the Third World War, indicating only that its cause, most likely, would be religious strife around the world.
Hybrid Wars
Not everyone believes in the reality of World War III. Why go to massive sacrifices and destruction, if there is a long-tested and more effective means - "hybrid war". In the "White Paper", intended for the commanders of special forces of the American army, in the section "Winning in a Complex World" contains all the comprehensive information on this matter.
It says that any military operations against the authorities primarily involve implicit and covert actions. Their essence is in the attack by the forces of rebels or terrorist organizations (which are supplied from abroad with money and weapons) on government structures. Sooner or later, the existing regime loses control over the situation and gives up its country to the sponsors of the coup.
The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov, considers "hybrid war" a means that is many times superior in its results to any open military clashes.
Capital can do anything
Nowadays, it is not only conspiracy theorists who believe that both world wars were largely provoked by Anglo-American financial corporations, which reaped fabulous profits from militarization. And their ultimate goal is to establish the so-called "American peace".
“Today we are on the verge of a grandiose reformatting of the world order, the instrument of which will again be war,” says the writer Alexei Kungurov. It will be a financial war of world capitalism, directed mainly against the developing countries.
The task of such a war is not to give the periphery any chance of any independence. In underdeveloped or dependent countries, a system of external currency management is established, which forces them to exchange their output, resources and other material values for dollars. The more transactions, the more the American machine will print currencies.
But the main goal of world capital is the Heartland: the territory of the Eurasian continent, most of which is controlled by Russia. Whoever owns the Heartland, with its colossal resource base, will own the world, as the English geopolitician Halford Mackinder said.