Ruins of houses, extinct streets and the sun covered with ash. This is not the result of a nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula, but the possible consequences of the eruption of the Paektusan volcano, located on the border of North Korea and China. The last time it made itself felt more than a thousand years ago, and in the coming years, scientists expect a new powerful explosion. Moreover, the continuous nuclear tests of the DPRK are capable of provoking it.
About when to expect a catastrophe and whether Pyongyang can speed up the arrival of the "doomsday" by its actions.
The impending eruption of the Pektusan volcano (in China it is called Changbai) continues to disturb scientists around the world. In terms of its power, it is second only to supervolcanoes, erupting once every 100 thousand years and capable of causing climate change on the entire planet. The power of the sacred Korean mountain Paektu is an order of magnitude less, but it can also exceed the explosion power of the largest thermonuclear bombs ever tested by mankind by tens of times. Over the past two thousand years, there have been only four such eruptions around the world, but a fifth may soon happen.
According to Chinese scientists, since the early 2000s, small earthquakes have been regularly observed in the Paektusan area. The edges of the volcano's crater are gradually growing, the temperature in nearby thermal springs is increasing, as well as the concentration of helium. All this may indicate the return of the volcano to an active phase and an impending eruption. Volcanologists believe that 10 kilometers under the mountain there is a large chamber of incandescent magma, which is gradually replenished from the underlying chambers and sooner or later will splash out.
Volcanoes like Paektusan erupt approximately once every thousand years. And given that the last powerful eruption of Whitehead Mountain occurred in 946, it is quite possible that now it is gathering forces for a new powerful explosion. For more than a million Chinese and North Koreans living in the region, the consequences could be disastrous.
The eruption with a force of seven points at one time caused the release of a huge amount of a hot stream of gas, ash and stones, which, flying at great speed, destroyed all life in their path. And from the bursting top of the mountain flowed streams of lava, burning all the surrounding vegetation in the fires. Even after a millennium, the ecosystem of these places has not fully recovered.
A new explosion could be even more destructive. Two billion tons of water from the Lake Chongzhi formed in the crater can provoke powerful floods, overflowing the largest border rivers Amnokkan (Yalujiang) and Tumangan (Tumynjiang, or Tumannaya - it is along this river that Russia borders on the DPRK). In addition, interaction with water will lead to even more ash, which can eclipse the sun for several months, causing an effect similar to nuclear winter. As a result, the average temperature in Northeast Asia will drop by two degrees.
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However, as scientists note, the force of the eruption at this stage is difficult to predict. During deep hibernation, Paektusan woke up more than once, limiting itself to small emissions. However, the last time it was also more than a hundred years ago. Therefore, even if the eruption is half the power, the ash clouds will fly to neighboring countries. If it happens in the summer, it will cover mainly the northeast of China and the DPRK, as well as the south of the Russian Primorye. If in winter, when the westerly winds blow, the ash will fly towards Japan and the south of the Korean Peninsula:
The main dispute between scientists, however, is not now connected with whether to expect an eruption or not, but with how soon it will happen.
Don't wake up dashing while it's quiet
From the Phungeri nuclear test site, where North Korea conducts its tests, it is only 115 kilometers to Paektusan. As a result of the last test, which caused an artificial earthquake with a magnitude of 5.7 (according to other estimates, up to 6.1), a series of small earthquakes followed, already occurring, it is believed, due to partial collapse of rocks. In this regard, some experts believe that if the DPRK continues to test devices of increasing power, this may eventually provoke the eruption of Paektusan.
According to calculations by South Korean scientists, a nuclear test with a capacity of more than a megaton in TNT equivalent, causing an earthquake of seven points, will create pressure on the magma chambers of 120 kPa, as a result of which they can simply explode.
However, this is in pure theory, while real cases of "acceleration" of volcanic eruptions have not been recorded. For more than half a century of the existence of the American nuclear test site in Nevada, where underground explosions were carried out 921 times, including with a capacity of more than a megaton, nothing terrible happened. Although less than 300 kilometers from the landfill, Long Valley is one of the largest dormant supervolcanoes on Earth. There were no eruptions during the tests in 1971, when a five-megaton bomb was tested at a distance of 90 kilometers from three active stratovolcanoes in Alaska. The ensuing 6.9 magnitude earthquake did not awaken 62 dormant and active volcanoes in the Aleutian Islands.
According to American experts, this is primarily due to the fact that artificial earthquakes are mainly high-frequency, while natural ones, which can really cause volcanic eruptions, are low-frequency. However, the structure of magma and the rocks surrounding it is different everywhere, and much in the activity of volcanoes still remains a mystery to scientists, so the possibility of an eruption provoked by a nuclear test is not completely rejected by anyone.
When the next explosion of Paektusan will occur, scientists in South Korea cannot yet accurately predict. The only thing volcanologists are sure of is that an eruption is inevitable. And with the growing intensity of North Korean tests, it becomes almost impossible to predict the time of the cataclysm.
Andrey Olfert