Have any of you seen the movie "Dr. Strangelove, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Atomic Bomb"? This is a classic film that pokes fun at the Cold War nuclear arms race. Spoiler alert: a chain of sad events ends with nuclear weapons around the world starting to detonate.
We decided to find out what will happen to humanity in the event of a nuclear apocalypse. What happens if all nuclear weapons in the modern world explode? In short, nothing good. Here are some rather gloomy predictions by mathematicians and science experts regarding the nuclear doomsday.
Arsenal of different countries
First, let's take a look at what different countries have in their nuclear arsenal.
According to the 2017 Federation of American Scientists, there are 14,900 nuclear warheads in the world. At the same time, 6,800 of them belong only to the United States, and 7,000 to Russia. In other countries, their number is much more modest. In Great Britain - 215, in France - 300, in China - 260, in India - 120, in Pakistan - 130, in Israel - about 80, and about 10 in North Korea.
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However, the strength of these weapons varies significantly. The United States and Russia, for example, have hyper-powerful nuclear weapons, while North Korea has an old-fashioned nuclear arsenal.
Hyperpowered weapon
One of the most powerful weapons in the US arsenal is the B83 nuclear warhead, which has an explosive yield equivalent to 1.2 megatons of TNT. This equates to roughly 5 quadrillion joules of energy, or 5 petajoules. It also equals 79 atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima during World War II.
Explosion results
Assuming that at least one such nuclear warhead is detonated, the consequences are hard to imagine. Nuclear historian Alex Wellerstein says that if it explodes on the surface, the bomb will leave a crater 420 meters in diameter and 92 meters deep. Almost immediately after detonation, a giant fireball measuring 5.7 square kilometers will appear, which will reach temperatures up to 83.3 million degrees Celsius. Using up to 50 percent of the energy of the entire warhead, it will also be accompanied by huge pressure waves. All buildings within 16.8 square kilometers of the region where the warhead will be dropped will be level with the ground.
Thanks to thermal radiation, which uses 35 percent of the explosive's energy, all people and animals within 420 square kilometers will receive third-degree burns, which will only hurt a split second, as the nerve endings of the victims will be completely destroyed.
In addition, one should not forget about ionizing radiation and radioactive fallout. Even if there is no strong wind during the explosion, we can assume that an area of 20.6 square kilometers will be so heavily irradiated that 50 to 90 percent of the people within it will die from radiation sickness.
What it takes to destroy the world
So now let's try to predict the consequences of destroying the world.
In order to get a very rough explosive yield for all nuclear weapons in the world, for calculations we use only the one that belongs to the United States and Russia, but suppose that each of these bombs has the same yield as B83. This means that 13,800 nuclear bombs altogether will produce about the same amount of energy as the United States in one year.
Suppose each of these devices falls to the ground and explodes on the surface. If we assume that all of them will be evenly distributed around the world, this will immediately destroy 94 kilometers of land. But even such consequences are only flowers compared to what will happen next.
232 thousand square kilometers of infrastructure will disappear in an instant due to the blast wave. This means that about 295 megacities the size of New York will turn to dust.
A fireball with a diameter of 79 thousand square kilometers will evaporate literally everything that it touches. Anyone within 5.8 million square kilometers will receive third-degree burns. In the same space, 3,700 cities the size of London will be burned out.
Radioactive fallout and ionizing radiation will pollute an area of about 284 thousand square kilometers. This means that people who can still survive will receive radiation sickness. Of course, much of this precipitation will reach the lower atmosphere and spread around the world, so there will be many more casualties in the long term.
Thus, hundreds of millions of people, possibly billions, will die within the first hour. These consequences are dire in themselves, but what happens next?
Winter is coming
Nuclear winter is considered to be a hypothetical phenomenon that in part resembles a volcanic winter. The most epic eruptions produce large amounts of aerosols and fine particulate matter. They are incredibly reflective, so if they manage to get into the upper atmosphere, the planet begins to cool as a result.
Historically, humans have witnessed volcanic cooling several times over the years. Several mass extinctions have also occurred, attributable in part to volcanic eruptions that have chilled the world for hundreds of years, and possibly longer.
A nuclear winter is, in fact, very similar to a volcanic winter, except that the aerosol particles that enter the atmosphere will be radioactive. People will die only because they cannot breathe such air.
Nuclear mini winter
So how many nuclear warheads are needed to start a powerful enough nuclear winter?
One study found that roughly 100 Hiroshima-style explosions could produce enough soot to trigger a "small" nuclear winter. This will reduce the global average temperature by about 1 ° C, offsetting the effects of anthropogenic climate change. Problem solved, right?
Mass extinction
If all of the world's nuclear weapons explode, there will be an almost 100 percent reduction in solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface within a few years. This means that the planet will be covered in darkness during this time. The amount of light reaching the planet's surface will then begin to increase, but very slowly, over the next several decades or even centuries.
Suffice it to say that the lack of light will stop photosynthesis. Only hardy plants will be able to survive, leading to the collapse of global food chains. There will be a massive extinction, including, possibly, our species. The few survivors will have to fight for survival in the irradiated world.
Anna Pismenna