What will our world look like in a hundred years? MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) economist Daron Acemoglu asked this question when he was waiting for the birth of his son. His new work looks at the political, social and economic trends of the past hundred years and then extrapolates them into the future.
Acemoglu offers a bleak prospect of growing inequality and pollution, but also sees positive aspects, such as advances in health care.
Environmental pollution around the world will increase
Industrialization in China means the potential for a serious deterioration in CO2 emissions and climate change. The only way to slow down this process is a massive transition to "clean" energy - a difficult and practically impossible task without reaching an appropriate agreement at the international level. Clean energy does not currently have enough market share to succeed, and increased emissions can be devastating.
Islamic regimes will fall
Young people in countries like Egypt, Syria, and Saudi Arabia are increasingly aware of the power of their governments over their lives. Expectations of political change among peoples will lead to a further heightened enthusiasm and response. When the region changes, and women and minorities fight for their rights, the use of religion as a measure of social control will cease.
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Wars can fade into oblivion
Over the past 60 years, the number of wars between countries and civil wars has been on the decline, and this trend will continue in the next century. As the process of education and the activities of international organizations to prevent war continues, these conflicts will largely weaken. Institutions like the UN make it easier to resolve disputes between states and can prevent a repeat of the Cold War. According to Acemoglu, our century has every chance of becoming peaceful.
People will live longer and healthier
New technologies, drugs and vaccines mean that the children of the future will live longer than their parents. Diseases will subside, and the global economy may experience a sharp recovery. Progress will be made by advanced countries that will offer their services to the struggling states of Asia and Africa.
Robots will work hard
Jobs in agriculture, industry and other areas that use manual labor will gradually decline as technology advances. These workers will be replaced by computers and robots. Such a process could throw billions of unskilled workers into poverty, or provide them with better jobs and higher incomes.
The middle class will continue to die out
The benefits of improved technology will go to the rich. Meanwhile, given that Chinese workers will demand higher wages, the demand for cheap labor will rise. Thus, economic growth will be increasingly uneven, and the gap between rich and poor will be wider than ever.
The global economy will prosper
China will continue to grow, new regions of Asia and Africa will begin to develop, which may lead to an improvement in the quality of life. But we cannot count on developing countries to take over all of the growth: to sustain overall development, high-consumption regions, mainly the United States and Europe, will have to deal with their economic problems.
We will have automated vehicles
Much like the past century, the next hundred years will see a myriad of technical innovations, ranging from automated vehicles to advanced therapies. We are unlikely to face a shortage of fresh ideas, so the landscape around us will continue to undergo changes in the same striking manner as before.
Democracy will lose ground
In the United States, democracy is on the defensive. The gap between wealth and poverty is widening, and participation in political decision-making requires money. Meanwhile, all over the world, people extol the Chinese authoritarian model. The result may be that the individual rights revolution will cease or lose all of its gains.