In 1917, our state was shaken by two revolutions, followed by a bloody civil conflict. The result of the four-year war was the victory of the Workers 'and Peasants' Red Army, the defeat of the military formations of the White movement and the establishment of socialism in the country. 100 years have passed since those times, but still many of our compatriots are asking the question: what if the Civil War had ended differently from the textbooks? Which way would Russia have moved then and where would it come today?
It is officially believed that the Russian Civil War began in February 1918. Prior to this, the clashes were of a disorganized local character. By the spring of 1918, the centers of the anti-Bolshevik movement were finally formed. Lenin and company were opposed by the Cadets, Mensheviks, Socialist-Revolutionaries, separatists from the national outskirts, a significant part of the Cossacks.
February turns
Former tsarist generals formed the Volunteer Army. Germany occupied Ukraine, Romanians seized Bessarabia. British, French, American and Japanese units landed in Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Vladivostok.
In conditions of total encirclement and intervention, the Bolsheviks managed to create the Red Army, and then go from defense to offensive and regain control over almost the entire territory of Russia. The White movement was defeated, and its members were forced to flee the country.
We know all this from childhood, but what prevents us from assuming for a moment a different outcome of the Civil War? After all, the wheel of history could easily turn in the other direction.
By the end of the summer of 1918 and throughout 1919, the position of Soviet power was very precarious. Leon Trotsky said: "If the White Guards put forward the slogan about the" peasant tsar ", we would not have lasted even a week." Even without slogans about the tsar, as soon as the whites find reserves and increase the onslaught on the fronts, as soon as the Entente countries increase their military assistance to the white generals, as soon as Lenin was killed, the outcome of the war would change dramatically.
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Bayonets and rods
The most positive scenario for whites could develop like this: by cutting off the supply artery along the Volga, the White Guards would take Moscow and Petrograd. After a wave of terrible repressions, supporters of Bolshevism on the ground would have been purged. Kolchak would remain the supreme ruler for a while, at least until the suppression of separatism on the outskirts of the empire and the destruction of the centers of the partisan movement.
Either a republic or a constitutional monarchy would be chosen as a state structure. One of the surviving grand dukes would sit on the throne. Landowners and large breeders who had fled from the revolution would return to Russia.
By the beginning of the 20th century, the absolute monarchy had become an obsolete rarity. In the absence of such a brake, Russia would have stepped onto the path of economic development. Within thirty years, she would have been in the position of a world leader.
The revolution has no end …
It is a shame to supporters of monarchism, but the above scenario is very unlikely. Researchers should not forget that the scattered representatives of the White movement did not even have any intelligible political program. There are several options for the future fate of Russia, but all of them are negative to one degree or another. Moreover, the revolutionary situation that has developed in Russia would not have disappeared anywhere. The proletariat and peasantry, which have already felt the taste of freedom, would hardly give up the struggle. Under the yoke of repression, the idea would simply go underground, and the confrontation again acquired a subversive and terrorist character. In addition, one should not forget about the Comintern and the world revolution, the overwhelming majority of which were among the revolutionaries. They certainly didn't lay down their weapons. And of course,the very same Anglo-Saxons would be the first to support the new Russian underground.
The British were not at all interested in the restoration of Russia. Just the opposite. The “divide and conquer” scheme has long ago become the signature style of the elite in England, and then the United States. First, sponsoring anti-state elements, and then dragging neighbors into an external or internal war … It worked flawlessly.
You don't need to be a visionary to predict a new revolution. And it would have begun, of course, around 1941, by a strange "accident" coinciding with a new military conflict.
Another option for the end of the Civil War could be the collapse of the Russian Empire, say, in the Urals, with the passing separation of the national outskirts. Such an outcome would completely satisfy the main interests of the conflict: instead of a huge, dangerous and united Russia, they would receive two ardent antagonists. It only remained to throw firewood into this fire, and sell weapons to the fighters.
An even more profitable option for the Anglo-Saxons would be the disintegration of Russia into several states-principalities, already quite easily falling into economic and political dependence on the "sponsor". The opportunities for this were immense, since the numerous Krasnovs, Makhno and Petliura could well claim their own pieces of the pie.
Red and stuff
It turns out that only the solution of internal problems allowed Russia to get out of the Civil War with a positive balance. And the solution of interclass issues was provided only by the victory of the Bolsheviks.
However, there is another option for ending the Civil War. This option looks incredible, but history knows enough examples of incredible events.
Historians agree that the "allies" in the Entente helped the White movement, but not too much. White victory and the restoration of the country did not suit them. The ideal option was a protracted war, a long-running conflict with thousands killed and a complete collapse of the economy.
Imagine that, moving within this paradigm and alternately dosing overt and tacit assistance to both sides of the conflict, the British would have achieved this very protracted war.
Within the framework of this model, by 1920, Denikin's defeated troops would have been pushed back to the Crimea along with Wrangel's troops. Yudenich would have been thrown back to Estonia.
The main hostilities would have focused on the eastern front and were conducted with varying success, turning into a kind of trench warfare.
In the summer of 1923, the Japanese command, having lost patience, would have increased the military contingent and, with the tacit connivance of England, began an active occupation of the Far East. There would have been clashes with the troops of Ataman Semyonov. Ataman Gamow was driven out of Blagoveshchensk.
Realizing the need to counter open aggression, knowing that his units will not be able to fight on two fronts, and also having intelligence information that the British are playing on both fronts, Admiral Kolchak would suggest that the Bolsheviks start secret negotiations. At the beginning of autumn, the red leadership, who also understood the complexity of the situation, responded with consent. Suppose that Lenin, feeling worse and worse, would entrust the negotiation not to Leon Trotsky, but to Joseph Stalin. The white and red delegations would have met near Krasnoyarsk.
Despite the difficulty of reaching compromises, Stalin and Kolchak could come to an agreement. In the winter of 1923, as a result of the joint actions of two seemingly irreconcilable antagonists, the Far East would have been cleared of the Japanese.
Using his authority, Kolchak inclines the majority of white generals to cooperate with the Bolsheviks, a similar process is going on in the camp of the Bolsheviks. By mid-1924, the United Forces established control over Ukraine and the Caucasus. The emerging union includes Finland and Central Asia. Poles and Wrangel are intransigent, but the baron dies in an accident, and the Crimea nevertheless joins. Poland was divided into East and West. Eastern Poland joined the newly formed state called the USSR - the Fair Union of Sovereign Republics.
The political structure of the Union would be based on a republican model with extremely broad social functions of the state. The main legislative body was the People's Duma, formed from representatives of different classes. The state at the expense of taxes provided universal education and medical care. Part of the raw material production, factories and factories passed under the protectorate of the state, part remained in private ownership. At the same time, all owners were obliged to coordinate management issues with the Workers' Councils.
By the beginning of the 1940s, the Union of Sovereign Republics from a backward agrarian country would have turned into a powerful industrial power, and in June 1941, when a new war broke out with Germany, Russian tank crews would have gone into battle in RB-34 vehicles produced in Tula branches " Russo-Balta ".
Magazine: Mysteries of History №1 / 2. Author: Victor Stern