We talk a lot about the big division of the world. It comes because the former hegemon, the United States of America, has virtually run out of opportunities to put pressure on world processes - economic, political and cultural.
In the economic sphere, there is a lot of debt, by and large ineffective public finances (a huge budget deficit) and all of a sudden there are no competitors (China and the EU). In the political arena, the internal struggle between Democrats and Republicans over the image of America's future. Instead of collectively fighting for the American future, a struggle is developing between separate groups of influence and clans, which frankly makes a unified state policy impossible. The military-political component was faced with the ineffectiveness of the latest weapons and the policy of "promise and not to strike" professed by Trump, which immediately put on the agenda the question of whether it is,is this American power? In the cultural sphere, the already not brilliant American culture for a long time held on to Hollywood and American pop culture by now has lost mainly its attractiveness and full of meanings.
Perspectively, the “Great Redistribution of the World” is not just a potential opportunity, but also the inevitability of the future. And in this biggest game Russia will have to play at the highest level. Moreover, all competitors at the most decisive moment were weakened and possibly very critical.
The United States is headlong into the presidential elections, the struggle in which, both in the camp of Democrats and then, may well split America even deeper than ever before. It is very likely that they will end in a scandal and a collapse with three candidates, the absence of a real majority and an attempt to get someone else in. But more on this in another study.
The European Union, which in terms of the scale of the economy is quite a competitor in the global economic dispute But Britain's exit from the EU and a hysterical attempt to tailor the EU budget for spare parts without the UK's share calls into question the existence of the EU and its unity.
China, which looked like the leader of the world economic race (in terms of the rate of economic growth), found itself in the grip on the one hand of the coronavirus (showing that China can be paralyzed, there would be a desire) and with an arc of internal party conflict, which is now unfolding in all its glory with the arrests of hotel functionaries. And all this against the backdrop of a trade war with the United States, which after the signing of the first phase did not end at all, moreover, it is very likely just begun. And these are the most powerful anchors that will hold back China.
In these conditions, Russia appears to be one of the real candidates for a major change in the entire world architectonics in the very short term - literally in the next five years.
But for this it is necessary to solve a number of problems. Reformat the power in the country, giving stability and personification in the system of governance in the country (and here we are faced with a constitutional reform). Reformat the near abroad, creating a convenient basis for development (we are now seeing the situation on changing the legislation on citizenship and work on integration with Belarus). Preservation and formation of a system of principles and norms of interaction between states (and Russia is now one of the last pillars of preserving the international legal order) Finally, to carry out economic modernization, ensuring the economic and technological potential for Russia's place in the world order. All this is necessary.
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Let's talk about the positions of the members of the large quartet and what Russia should first of all do in order not to get lost in this quartet.
USA. Elections, elections
The whole life of America is now built around elections. The reshuffle in the White House, individual political steps, decisions made in intelligence, the military, the economy, and so on. All in order to determine the political future of the United States for the next 4 years.
It is noteworthy that, in fact, the United States has practically no time. The trade war with China has not been completed, the military threats of the pre-election period are very, very weakly controlled (as a result, right now Trump has to manually resolve the issue with the Taliban in Afghanistan. It costs them almost nothing to arrange for the Americans a series of losses in the armed forces stationed in Afghanistan, just before the elections, a simple bombardment of bases is enough. Of course, this will not be a victory for the Taliban, but Trump will definitely not be better off. As a result, it is better to leave Afghanistan in time from sin. From Iraq and Syria, probably too. Elections are above all). The stabilization of South and Central America has not been fully completed. Maduro is still the president of Venezuela, and Ortega is Nicaragua. Many plans, if not failed, are very seriously adjusted.
It would seem that Trump is worried. The elections will not determine the place of the United States in the future real geopolitical and geo-economic situation. Moreover, the failure of the Democratic Party, demonstrated in Iowa, leads to the idea that Trump will not have to compete with the Democrats. They are, by and large, extras in this fight.
Trump will have to compete with reality. Avoid economic disruptions, prevent catastrophic military failures, and prevent circumstances from seriously undermining your rating.
As a result, the return home of some of the Americans who were on the ill-fated coronavirus cruise ship caused almost hysteria in the American top of power. The coronavirus is a threat to the economy. Termination of transport links, shutdown of factories, collapse of stock market indices. All of these are factors influencing future elections.
Thus, the United States is now in the most vulnerable position, when the entire executive branch is working on Trump's election, he himself constantly looks around whether this or that action will lead to a drop in the rating. In such a situation, it is impossible to work constructively for the benefit of strengthening the capabilities of the United States in the global political landscape. And the closer to the elections, the more this tendency will manifest itself. If now mistakes can still be played out, then in the summer their price will increase immeasurably, and in the fall they will be generally unacceptable. What, obviously, opponents will try to take advantage of.
But it is not a fact that the completion of the presidential elections in November 2020 will strengthen the position of the United States. If we take into account the possible alignment - Trump from the Republicans, Sanders from the Democrats, Bloomberg from the third force, then the political turbulence may well last until January 2021, and there lead to a fatal conflict between the US elites. Most likely, however, it is not this, but a large conspiracy of all political forces with concessions and bargaining in which the key position of the US presidency will be exchanged for tens or hundreds of small positions (from ministerial portfolios to government orders, from ambassadorial positions to positions on certain issues of the current agenda) for all parties involved. And it will be the weakest power in the United States in the last century.
Against this background, the drawdown of the USA in the struggle for world influence is guaranteed, the period from September 2020 to November 2020 is ensured - January 2021 will be a time of trials and losses for the USA. This is the logic of the global political struggle. True, the United States can survive this period more favorably. But for this, the fire has to start already among the other members of the large quartet.
EU. Fuss around the budget
The European ship has already received two torpedoes below the waterline. Great Britain still left the EU, and the EU states somehow failed to agree on the future budget.
There is little choice. Either the locomotives of the EU - France and Germany - will need to shoulder additional costs instead of the retired Britain, or they will have to seriously curtail the appetites of European recipients, primarily Poland, for receiving aid from the EU. The first threatens serious domestic political problems for the forces behind Merkel and Macron. Neither the Alternative for Germany, nor the "yellow vests" will be able to explain why you need to pay more to feed Poland, the Baltic States, Eastern Europe. These countries will be able to reduce aid only after experiencing a wave of indignation and threats to leave the EU on their part, which Poland has already tried to do, declaring that it will think about leaving the EU following the UK. Of course this is a bluff. Poland's exit from the EU would be a geopolitical catastrophe for it now. Reduced budget. Break of some contacts and connections. Expulsion of Poles from some EU countries (at least in revenge). Passage on the Polish arrogance in one gulp from all European media, which will blame Poland for all mortal sins. This is a confirmation that Poland will not go anywhere, but will lavish the miasma that poison European unity. But the EU has a great chance. And this chance is the May elections of the President of Poland. If someone more agreeable than Duda wins this election, the EU will have a chance for easier (or at least quieter) budget work. But the EU has a great chance. And this chance is the May elections of the President of Poland. If someone more agreeable than Duda wins this election, the EU will have a chance for easier (or at least quieter) budget work. But the EU has a great chance. And this chance is the May elections of the President of Poland. If someone more agreeable than Duda wins this election, the EU will have a chance for easier (or at least quieter) budget work.
But two torpedoes for the EU are not all the joys. Almost dozens of other blows join them, one larger than the other. I am not talking about the coronavirus in Italy, which has been spreading like an avalanche in recent days and may paralyze the economy of northern Italy in the coming days. The spread of this virus further across Europe could be an economic disaster, as China can afford to lose 1.5% of GDP growth in 2020, while the EU does not, since such a loss would mean a guaranteed recession, which means urgent measures to save the sinking economy.
Another problem is the situation in Ukraine. It's funny, but all the troubles and disasters that the EU and the US brought to Russia on the European issue suddenly turned out to be toxic for the organizers themselves. Trump is struggling with the Ukrainian legacy of the Democrats, the EU is trying to drive the situation in Ukraine into the mainstream of at least some peace (alas, alas, including at the expense of Russia, since the deal to pump gas through the GTS and pay 3 billions to Naftogaz Russia practically bowed Germany). The refusal of Kiev's Minsk agreements for the EU is a virtual failure of the entire containment policy. The aggravation of the situation in terms of active hostilities will be a disaster for both Ukraine and the EU, since either it will require the recognition of all past Ukrainian politics as a mistake with Merkel personally responsible for that,
On the one hand, the United States is trying to harm the EU on the Ukrainian front (it is worth remembering that all the talk about abandoning Minsk-2 came after the visit of American Secretary of State M. Pompeo to Kiev), and on the other hand, to eliminate the influence of the Democrats, including debunking the mythology of the Maidan (the "heavenly hundred" turned out to be not so heavenly, the leaders of the "Maidan" turned out to be murderers and provocateurs (from so suddenly, although Russia has been talking about this for the 6th year already), by "accidental" (well, we believe, We believe) the leaked intelligence information Boeing no longer shot down Buk, due to his absence). This is a complete disruption of the whole concept of the work of "Euroglobal Democrats" in Ukraine. And a huge problem for the EU in the immediate potential.
There are still a number of problems ahead. This is the unfolding economic downturn in the Balkans and southern Europe, which will have to be dealt with somehow. This is the threat of a new wave of refugees (who are actually in Erdogan's hands and can become a disaster for the EU at any moment). And the US threat to declare more and more sanctions against the EU, for example, in the automotive industry. And this is not a bluff, the US authorities have already raised the duties on Airbus planes, and it is unlikely that something will stop them against other steps.
Most notably, the EU has no recipes for dealing with all these scourges. The EU has only two trump cards left. First, the idea that the unity of Europe is still a value (and even that is gradually subject to inflation). Second, there were old bookmarks of Germany, France and a number of other countries of "root Europe", which hypothetically can be used. But will it work? Now this is not at all obvious. And soon Europe will go to the elections (in 2021 in Germany, in 2022 in France, and between them in a dozen EU states) and many will have no time to resolve the issues of the geopolitical dispute.
In this situation, the EU turns out to be almost an outsider in the struggle for a large redivision of the world. A loss in this struggle could also become the end of a "united Europe", and hence any geopolitical prospects of Europe for several decades to come.
China. Fighting Circumstances and the Great Purge
China also found itself in a difficult situation. As the main geopolitical adversary of the United States today, China has been under pressure from the Americans throughout the past year, in almost all directions.
The most illustrative of these were, of course, the events in Kon-Kong (anti-Chinese protest, inspired by the United States) and the trade war with the United States, which China tried to reduce to a minimal defeat with the signing of Phase-1. In the trade war, China generally withstood the most serious blows, dragged out this war with the United States, resisted counter duties, but in the end realizing that the United States could not afford to actively and painlessly press China on the eve of the elections, they made concessions in terms of purchases American products and the containment of the yuan. This is frankly in vain. Having received a blow from the Americans, one must be prepared to receive more and more before the states fully take advantage of their capabilities.
But the current coronavirus epidemic has dealt an even bigger blow to China. It has already "eaten" one and a half percent of China's GDP growth and has severed many lines of communication with the world. No matter how China insists on the safety of shipments from China, this is unlikely to convince anyone. Of course, some mitigation of the situation is the presence of stocks, force majeure for the supply of resources from outside China. Again, something can be made up through more active work in the future. But the question is not about 1.5 percent of GDP growth. Already, the recovery of production in the steel industry has reached 67.4%, grain processing - 70%, coal mining - 76%, transportation of goods by rail - 95%. Soon everything will probably be restored, for the final solution of the epidemiological issue, including in Wuhan, China is given a maximum of a month.
The question is that the coronavirus has called into question the main project - "One Belt, One Road", making you doubt its reliability and effectiveness. Critics of the project say that there is no need to hope that China will be able to provide uninterrupted supplies due to the fact that even a virus leads to such consequences. By the way, the United States has seriously approached to foment hysteria around this virus.
But China's main problem is not the coronavirus, economic slowdown, or difficulties with the implementation of the "belt and road". They will fight the coronavirus, no matter how many doctors they have to put in for this, they will spur the economy, no matter how they have to form the pace and create conditions, they will activate the belt and path, whether by advertising or by bribing officials in other countries. China has never been stopped.
But another problem, much more complex, has emerged. Against the background of the fight against coronavirus, cases of bringing officials of different levels to justice have become more frequent. Various factions in the Chinese elite began to fight each other. This means that the Chinese Communist Party will be purged, rid of inconsistent fellow travelers and large-scale processes. This may help the party in the future, but at the present time it is very likely to introduce into it a significant discord, which, by and large, is not in China's hands now. The likelihood that all these internal party issues will be sorted out in the spring-summer of 2020 is hardly reasonable. And entering into a period of active conflict in global geopolitics with unresolved internal party issues can be costly for China. At least in their dispute with the United States.
Instead of being dominated by a vibrant and emerging China, we risk a sluggish gore from two disease-prone players. Which will benefit the United States more than China. Yet it is the United States that can use the old fears of the "yellow threat" against China, rather than China, to demonstrate its advantage over the United States.
Russia. New challenges and unresolved issues
In the four presented, perhaps, Russia appears to be both the most active player and the participant of the game with the least strong positions. The fact is that Russia is still presented as a state that has a number of serious problems that will need to be implemented in order to fight within the framework of the “Great Redistribution”. There are basically three of these problems.
First. Putin. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is the power of Russia in the context of the policy he is pursuing. Most of the reforms, rearmament of the army, restoration of geopolitical influence in certain operational spaces, restoration of a sense of national pride. All this is Putin's work. This strength turns into weakness. All other players are just waiting. They are waiting for the time when V. V. Putin will leave active politics. Attempts to displace have already been made. This is the activity within the framework of the "reset" on the part of the United States - "Putin has left the first position, you can try to act", these are the events of 2012 and preparations for the 2018 elections. But so far to no avail. Now the enemy's hopes for 2024, after which it will be possible to talk about "Russia after Putin", which means that certain operational spaces will open up for working against Russia. But apparentlythe constitutional reform that has begun is designed not only to solve the problem of personifying the power of the president in Russia, but also to give at least three years for its establishment and consolidation. This means that this factor may decrease.
Second. Interests. The dominant interests of the elites are not manifested in Russia. Until now, a large number of different clans see their many opportunities, not noticing the national strategy - beneficial for everyone. During the acute phase of the conflict with official Kiev, we had those who, having business interests and political potential in Russia, were actively working on the side of the Ukrainian authorities. Now there are a number of people who practically openly support Lukashenko in his active struggle with the Kremlin (including in the context of his loud statements of the last period).
It is extremely difficult to determine elites in Russia who would in fact be inscribed with their interests in the national strategy. This is good on the one hand, since the 90s, when actually this very strategy was described for the interests of this group of people, led to the actual collapse of Russia. But this is bad to the extent that the activities of such persons harm the all-Russian interests for the sake of their own. Probably, soon we will have to face great activity on the part of the Prosecutor's Office and the Investigative Committee in the work on such elite personalities who have no interest in all-Russian interests, as well as in the nationalization of some important enterprises. But this has not yet been fully manifested, but will take place in the near future.
Third. Economy. In the economic part, Russia frankly falls short of the other players in the quartet. Possessing a certain potential in a number of areas (oil and gas, timber, metallurgy, weapons, nuclear energy, fertilizers, etc.) and gradually raising some other industries (agriculture, for example), Russia is still left out of the big economic processes. This is due to the absence of a serious financial market, and the weak development of the consumer sector, and failures in some areas of industry.
It is very likely that the government will propose a new program for the accelerated modernization of the Russian economy in a wide range of areas. What it will be, most likely we will find out in the very near future, since the national projects, which have been discussed a lot earlier, should finally get their implementation and implementation. In fact, Russia faces a very serious task in the next five years to massively expand the manufacturing sector, to ensure a significant increase in GDP (and you will not get off at a rate higher than the world average). GDP growth even at the level of 4-5% per year can be viewed as a successful stagnation scenario, but not as a foundation for a "Great Redistribution". And the Kremlin understands this very well. They also understand that in the case,if in the near future, in the same five-year period, we fail to enter competitive production in a wide range of goods, Russia will not be able to provide its “production umbrella” for the geopolitical zone of its influence, protecting it from economic pressure.
Relatively speaking, if we consider the technological division of the world as a future alternative to the “Great Redistribution”, it is not enough to resolve the issue of the presence of critical technologies in Russia, it is necessary to form a set of industrial technologies of a wide range on the basis of critical technologies (which is quite possible in the presence of critical technologies) and, what is the most most importantly, the possibilities of translating these technologies into the real economy, that is, industries capable of producing a specific product using these technologies. It is impossible to provide a technological zone without providing it with needs of its own goods, capable of relieving the population within this zone from the urgent need for goods of other global players.
It is on the solution of this problem that the main attention of the Russian authorities will probably be directed. It is his achievement that should be considered the number one task, against the background of which the constitutional reform and many other things turn into an accompanying, but not the most basic action. All of us must become witnesses of this transformation.
