According to scientists, productivity growth and the refusal of layoffs will significantly reduce labor time.
If the current rates of growth in labor productivity are maintained, Russia could switch to a three-hour working day by about 2040. This will be possible provided that enterprises begin to divide the remaining work among all employees, and not to make reductions. Such conclusions were reached by employees of the National Research Nizhny Novgorod State University named after N. I. Lobachevsky, with research. At the same time, many experts doubt that the forecast is realistic. Moreover, even if we take it on faith, the beginning of the experiment will in any case be postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic, during which labor productivity decreases and resources for modernizing production are reduced.
Let the robots work
In their work, the specialists proceeded from the famous scientific forecast of the English economist John Keynes. In an essay written in 1930, he argued that by 2030, manufacturing could shift to three-hour shifts (and thus a 15-hour work week). Although the “milestone” has not yet arrived, the long-term dynamics of working hours makes it possible to assess the feasibility of the forecast, it is indicated in the work. Over the past 90 years, the working week in industry in economically developed countries has decreased from approximately 50 to 35 hours, that is, on average, it has decreased by 10 minutes a year, scientists calculated. Achievement of the projected values would require a 21 minute reduction in working hours per seven days. In this case, already today 18.5 hours of work per week and shifts of 3.5 hours would be probable,say researchers. In the current reality, by 2030, you can expect that an employee will need to work at least 33 hours a week.
John Keynes's forecast does not come true, since it was based on the premise that the number of people employed in industry will not change and even increase. Then, with the reduction of the working time fund due to new technological solutions, the reduction of the shift would be the only possible solution. In fact, factories that have found ways to save human labor have acted differently and reduced the number of personnel. These people found work in the non-manufacturing sector - mainly in the service sector.
However, in a modern economy, where the share of employment in production is significantly inferior to the share of workers in the non-productive sphere, there is no need to use labor savings in production to redistribute labor in favor of the service sector, the paper says. Therefore, it becomes possible to use all the saved time of human labor to reduce the duration of shifts, the researchers say. In this scenario, the introduction of a three-hour working day in Russia is possible by 2040, they argue. This period will be similar for Germany, for France - 2038, for the Netherlands - 2062. The trade unions could become the engine that will force employers to reduce the duration of the shift, rather than the number of personnel, the authors of the work suggest.
Scientists also studied how a decrease in working hours will affect profits. It turned out that, provided that labor productivity grows by 30% every three years in an abstract enterprise, you can go from eight-hour shifts to three-hour shifts in 10 years. At the same time, the output increased by 37.5%, profit - by 21.9%, the number of employees - by 67%, the average salary - by 10.3%.
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The presented model can be extended to non-production areas, said one of the authors of the work, head of the Department of Economic Theory and Methodology of the National Research Nizhny Novgorod State University named after N. I. Lobachevsky Alexander Zolotov.
- As a rule, in the economy, the norm of working time comes from industrial production. This sphere sets the upper bar, - he explained.
The norm of an eight-hour working day was recommended by the International Labor Organization (ILO) convention back in 1919. For a hundred years it has become very outdated, the specialist believes.
- Suppose, due to innovations, the enterprise was able to reduce the use of human labor by a third. You can cut a third of the staff, or you can cut the working day by a third. The first way, of course, is more profitable, but the second will improve the quality of life and motivation of employees. How can an employee be interested in innovations if they can be fired because of them? - says Alexander Zolotov.
Reality corrections
According to the national development goals adopted in 2018, labor productivity in the economy by the end of 2024 should gain a growth rate, cleared of inflation, in the amount of at least 5% per year, the press service of the Ministry of Economic Development recalled. This will ensure a doubling of the indicator by 2040, according to the department.
However, forecast calculations for this period were not made, the ministry stressed. With such a horizon of events, global events, such as crises and technological revolutions, will play a significant role, which makes the forecast hardly applicable, added the press service of the department.
It can be added to the conclusions of the study that the situation with the coronavirus will obviously have a negative impact on labor productivity, which will delay the reduction in working hours, said Associate Professor of the Department of Organizational and Administrative Innovations of the PRUE named after G. V. Plekhanov Mikhail Khachaturyan. Nevertheless, the forecast can hardly be considered realistic, he said.
- Even with the widespread introduction of digital technologies, most of the increase in wages and profits will, as now, be achieved through job cuts, that is, layoffs. To implement the idea, strict control from the state will be required, the expert believes.
For the growth of labor productivity, significant investments are required in production, modernization of equipment, optimization of processes, creation of an effective organizational structure and the development of a culture of high labor productivity, noted Elena Yakhontova, Professor of the Department of Corporate Governance at the Higher School of Corporate Governance, RANEPA. Improvement of management, continuous and high-quality training of personnel will also be necessary conditions.
- In the context of the unfolding crisis, the growth of labor productivity is not a priority. After the end of the pandemic, the overwhelming number of companies and organizations will live for a long time in conditions of austerity, so I do not expect investments in increasing labor productivity, - said the expert.
However, theoretically, in a time horizon of 20 years in the world and in our country, significant changes can occur, which will lead to the formation of favorable conditions for a three-hour working day, added Elena Yakhontova.
A further reduction in working hours is indeed possible, and the study is interesting from a theoretical point of view, but from the point of view of real policy, there are too many assumptions in it, believes Alexander Leibovich, Director General of the National Agency for the Development of Qualifications. It is doubtful to extrapolate the processes of recent decades to the future: after all, the growth of labor productivity is a non-linear process, he noted. Then, the study takes into account the employer's need to increase output and profits, but does not take into account the external factor - that the indicators should be no lower than those of competitors from other countries, the expert noted.
“The model would be viable in a different socio-economic system, where not market mechanisms, but public administration would work,” explained Aleksandr Leibovich.
Also, the implementation of the idea of delegating work to more staff implies that all employees will have the same high qualifications, which is hardly realistic, he added.
- In addition to labor economics, there is also the concept of labor psychology. It takes a certain amount of time for the periods of entering and exiting an activity. From this point of view, it is more logical to talk about a reduction in the number of working days, and not a decrease in shift time, - believes Alexander Leibovich.
In 2017, speaking in the framework of the St. Petersburg economic form, Maxim Topilin, who at that time held the post of Minister of Labor, admitted that in the 21st century the working day could be reduced to two hours.
Anna Ivushkina